NBER Working Papers

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18961: More Trusting, Less Trust? An Investigation of Early E-Commerce in China

Hongbin Cai, Ginger Z. Jin, Chong Liu and Li-An Zhou

18960: The Simple Analytics of Monetary Policy: A Post-Crisis Approach

Benjamin M. Friedman

18959: Air Pollution and Procyclical Mortality

Garth Heutel and Christopher Ruhm

18958: Exploring Tradeoffs in the Organization of Scientific Work: Collaboration and Scientific Reward

Michaël Bikard, Fiona E. Murray and Joshua Gans

18957: Supply-Chain Trade: A Portrait of Global Patterns and Several Testable Hypotheses

Richard Baldwin and Javier Lopez-Gonzalez

18956: Assessing International Efficiency

Jonathan Heathcote and Fabrizio Perri

18955: Large Block Shareholders, Institutional Investors, Boards of Directors and Bank Value in the Nineteenth Century

Howard Bodenhorn

18954: Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective

S. Boragan Aruoba, Francis Diebold, Jeremy Nalewaik, Frank Schorfheide and Dongho Song

18953: An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic

Jeremy Greenwood, Philipp Kircher, Cezar Santos and Michele Tertilt

18952: The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence

Annamaria Lusardi and Olivia Mitchell

18951: The Simple Economics of Commodity Price Speculation

Christopher Knittel and Robert Pindyck

18950: The Miracle of Microfinance? Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation

Esther Duflo, Abhijit Banerjee, Rachel Glennerster and Cynthia Kinnan

18949: Housing Booms, Manufacturing Decline, and Labor Market Outcomes

Kerwin Kofi Charles, Erik Hurst and Matthew Notowidigdo

18948: Informal Care and Inter-vivos Transfers: Results from the National Longitudinal Survey of Mature Women

Edward Norton, Lauren Nicholas and Sean Sheng-Hsiu Huang

18947: Fraud in the Workplace? Evidence from a Dependent Verification Program

Michael Geruso and Harvey Rosen

18946: Financial Development in 205 Economies, 1960 to 2010

Martin Cihak, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Erik Feyen and Ross Levine

18945: Academic Performance and College Dropout: Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Estimate a Learning Model

Todd Stinebrickner and Ralph Stinebrickner

18944: Finance: Function Matters, not Size

John Cochrane

18943: Procyclical Leverage and Value-at-Risk

Tobias Adrian and Hyun Song Shin

18942: Capital Flows and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy

Valentina Bruno and Hyun Song Shin

18941: Household Leveraging and Deleveraging

Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti

18940: The Geography of Trade and Technology Shocks in the United States

David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson

18939: Inspection Technology, Detection and Compliance: Evidence from Florida Restaurant Inspections

Ginger Zhe Jin and Jungmin Lee

18938: Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labor Markets

David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson

18937: Growth in Regions

Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez de Silanes and Andrei Shleifer

18936: Bonus Culture: Competitive Pay, Screening, and Multitasking

Roland Benabou and Jean Tirole

18935: Environment, Health, and Human Capital

Joshua Graff Zivin and Matthew Neidell

18934: Food Price Volatility and Domestic Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries

Christophe Gouel

18933: Race-Specific Agglomeration Economies: Social Distance and the Black-White Wage Gap

Elizabeth Ananat, Shihe Fu and Stephen Ross

18932: Pay-for-Performance Incentives in Low- and Middle-Income Country Health Programs

Grant Miller and Kimberly Singer Babiarz

18931: A Tale of Two Standards: Patent Pools and Innovation in the Optical Disk Drive Industry

Kenneth Flamm

18930: Local Deficits and Local Jobs: Can U.S. States Stabilize Their Own Economies?

Gerald Carlino and Robert P. Inman

18929: Uncertainty and Decision in Climate Change Economics

Geoffrey Heal and Antony Millner

18928: The Employment Effects of State Hiring Credits During and After the Great Recession

David Neumark and Diego Grijalva

18927: Can Marginal Rates of Substitution Be Inferred from Happiness Data? Evidence from Residency Choices

Daniel Benjamin, Ori Heffetz, Miles Kimball and Alex Rees-Jones

18926: How Do Hospitals Respond to Market Entry? Evidence from A Deregulated Market for Cardiac Revascularization

Suhui Li and Avi Dor

18925: Climate Amenities, Climate Change, and American Quality of Life

David Albouy, Walter Graf, Ryan Kellogg and Hendrik Wolff

18924: Incidence and Environmental Effects of Distortionary Subsidies

Garth Heutel and David Kelly

18923: Who Should Pay for Credit Ratings and How?

Anil Kashyap and Natalia Kovrijnykh

18922: Bond Market Clienteles, the Yield Curve, and the Optimal Maturity Structure of Government Debt

Stéphane Guibaud, Yves Nosbusch and Dimitri Vayanos

18921: Economics versus Politics: Pitfalls of Policy Advice

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson

18920: Quantifying Productivity Gains from Foreign Investment

Christian Fons-Rosen, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Bent Sorensen, Carolina Villegas-Sanchez and Vadym Volosovych

18919: New Trade Models, New Welfare Implications

Marc Melitz and Stephen Redding

18918: Price Indexes for Clinical Trial Research: A Feasibility Study

Ernst R. Berndt and Iain Cockburn

18917: Inefficient Hiring in Entry-Level Labor Markets

Amanda Pallais

18916: Subjective and Objective Indicators of Racial Progress

Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers

18915: The Long-term Effects of Early Lead Exposure: Evidence from a case of Environmental Negligence

Tomás Rau, Loreto Reyes and Sergio Urzua

18914: No News is News: Do Markets Underreact to Nothing?

Stefano Giglio and Kelly Shue

18913: The Articulation Effect of Government Policy: Health Insurance Mandates Versus Taxes

Keith Ericson and Judd B. Kessler

18912: The Market for OTC Derivatives

Andrew Atkeson, Andrea Eisfeldt and Pierre-Olivier Weill

18911: A Theory of the Competitive Saving Motive

Qingyuan Du and Shang-Jin Wei

18910: Advertising Expensive Mortgages

Umit Gurun, Gregor Matvos and Amit Seru

18909: Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market

Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina

18908: A Spatial Approach to Energy Economics

Juan Moreno-Cruz and M. Scott Taylor

18907: Financial Education and Choice in State Public Pension Systems

Julie Agnew and Joshua Hurwitz

18906: Informational Frictions and Commodity Markets

Michael Sockin and Wei Xiong

18905: Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs

Wei Xiong

18904: Wall Street and the Housing Bubble

Ing-Haw Cheng, Sahil Raina and Wei Xiong

18903: Indirect Incentives of Hedge Fund Managers

Jongha Lim, Berk A. Sensoy and Michael Weisbach

18902: Retirement Plan Type and Employee Mobility: The Role of Selection and Incentive Effects

Gopi Goda, Damon Jones and Colleen Flaherty Manchester

18901: The Great Reversal in the Demand for Skill and Cognitive Tasks

Paul Beaudry, David Green and Benjamin Sand

18900: Rethinking Elderly Poverty: Time for a Health Inclusive Poverty Measure?

Sanders Korenman and Dahlia Remler

18899: Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Euro Zone

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Luis Garicano and Tano Santos

18898: Leakage, Welfare, and Cost-Effectiveness of Carbon Policy

Kathy Baylis, Don Fullerton and Daniel H. Karney

18897: Can a Unilateral Carbon Tax Reduce Emissions Elsewhere?

Joshua Elliott and Don Fullerton

18896: Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization

Arnaud Costinot and Andres Rodriguez-Clare

18895: Does "Skin in the Game" Reduce Risk Taking? Leverage, Liability and the Long-Run Consequences of New Deal Banking Reforms

Kris James Mitchener and Gary Richardson

18894: Can Amputation Save the Hospital? The Impact of the Medicare Rural Flexibility Program on Demand and Welfare

Gautam Gowrisankaran, Claudio Lucarelli, Philipp Schmidt-Dengler and Robert Town

18893: Boy-Girl Differences in Parental Time Investments: Evidence from Three Countries

Michael Baker and Kevin Milligan

18892: Credit Lines as Monitored Liquidity Insurance: Theory and Evidence

Viral Acharya, Heitor Almeida, Filippo Ippolito and Ander Perez

18891: Seeking Alpha: Excess Risk Taking and Competition for Managerial Talent

Viral Acharya, Marco Pagano and Paolo Volpin

18890: How Much do Idiosyncratic Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data

Mary Amiti and David Weinstein

18889: The Impact of Chicago's Small High School Initiative

Lisa Barrow, Amy Claessens and Diane Schanzenbach

18888: Shifting Mandates: The Federal Reserve's First Centennial

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

18887: Effects of Welfare Reform on Women's Crime

Hope Corman, Dhaval Dave and Nancy E. Reichman

18886: Smokescreen: How Managers Behave When They Have Something To Hide

Tanja Artiga Gonzalez, Markus Schmid and David Yermack

18885: Migration and Wage Effects of Taxing Top Earners: Evidence from the Foreigners' Tax Scheme in Denmark

Henrik Jacobsen Kleven, Camille Landais, Emmanuel Saez and Esben Anton Schultz

18884: The Impact of City Contracting Set-Asides on Black Self-Employment and Employment

Aaron K. Chatterji, Kenneth Chay and Robert Fairlie

18883: Trickle-Down Consumption

Marianne Bertrand and Adair Morse

18882: Learning about CEO Ability and Stock Return Volatility

Yihui Pan, Tracy Yue Wang and Michael Weisbach

18881: Sales Force and Competition in Financial Product Markets: The Case Of Mexico’s Social Security Privatization

Justine Hastings, Ali Hortacsu and Chad Syverson

18880: Unemloyment and Unobserved Credit Risk in the FHA Single Family Mortgage Insurance Fund

Joseph Gyourko and Joseph Tracy

18879: Why do emerging markets liberalize capital outflow controls? Fiscal versus net capital flow concerns

Joshua Aizenman and Gurnain Pasricha

18878: Uncertainty and Sentiment-Driven Equilibria

Jess Benhabib, Pengfei Wang and Yi Wen

18877: Fiscal Limits and Monetary Policy

Eric Leeper

18876: Something in the Water: Contaminated Drinking Water and Infant Health

Janet Currie, Joshua Graff Zivin, Katherine Meckel, Matthew Neidell and Wolfram Schlenker

18875: Mergers When Prices are Negotiated: Evidence from the Hospital Industry

Gautam Gowrisankaran, Aviv Nevo and Robert Town

18874: From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run

David Jacks

18873: Biofuels, Binding Constraints and Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility

Philip Abbott

18872: Incentivizing China's Urban Mayors to Mitigate Pollution Externalities: The Role of the Central Government and Public Environmentalism

Siqi Zheng, Matthew Kahn, Weizeng Sun and Danglun Luo

18871: Does Working from Home Work? Evidence from a Chinese Experiment

Nicholas Bloom, James Liang, John Roberts and Zhichun Jenny Ying

18870: Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction

Ulrich Mueller and Mark Watson

18869: Disability, Earnings, Income and Consumption

Bruce Meyer and Wallace K C Mok

18868: House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment

Manuel Adelino, Antoinette Schoar and Felipe Severino

18867: Financial Development and the Choice of Trade Partners

Man Lung Chan and Kalina Manova

18866: On Returns Differentials

Stephanie E. Curcuru, Charles Thomas and Francis Warnock

18865: How Elastic Are Preferences for Redistribution? Evidence from Randomized Survey Experiments

Ilyana Kuziemko, Michael I. Norton, Emmanuel Saez and Stefanie Stantcheva

18864: Speculative Runs on Interest Rate Pegs

Marco Bassetto and Christopher Phelan

18863: The Effect of Deceptive Advertising on Consumption of the Advertised Good and its Substitutes: The Case of Over-the-Counter Weight Loss Products

John Cawley, Rosemary Avery and Matthew Eisenberg

18862: When Is Prevention More Profitable than Cure? The Impact of Time-Varying Consumer Heterogeneity

Michael Kremer and Christopher Snyder