NBER Working Papers

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18410: The Most Egalitarian of All Professions: Pharmacy and the Evolution of a Family-Friendly Occupation

Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz

18409: The Macroeconomic Effects of Interest on Reserves

Peter Ireland

18408: Endogenous Liquidity and Defaultable Bonds

Zhiguo He and Konstantin Milbradt

18407: Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States

Samuel H. Preston, Andrew Stokes, Neil K. Mehta and Bochen Cao

18406: Adverse Selection In Credit Markets and Regressive Profit Taxation

Florian Scheuer

18405: The Role Of Intangible Capital in the Transformation and Growth of the Chinese Economy

Charles R. Hulten and Janet X. Hao

18404: Capital Account Policies and the Real Exchange Rate

Olivier Jeanne

18403: Land and House Price Measurement in China

Yongheng Deng, Joseph Gyourko and Jing Wu

18402: Cost-Sharing and Productivity

Teresa B. Gibson, A. Mark Fendrick and Michael E. Chernew

18401: Learning Through Noticing: Theory and Experimental Evidence in Farming

Rema Hanna, Sendhil Mullainathan and Joshua Schwartzstein

18400: What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets

Karl Case, Robert Shiller and Anne Thompson

18399: Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Models with Stochastic Volatility

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Pablo Guerron and Juan F Rubio-Ramirez

18398: Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk

Markus Brunnermeier and Martin Oehmke

18397: Some Reflections on the Recent Financial Crisis

Gary Gorton

18396: American Incomes 1774-1860

Peter Lindert and Jeffrey Williamson

18395: Executive Compensation and Corporate Governance in the U.S.: Perceptions, Facts and Challenges

Steven Kaplan

18394: How Do Regulators Influence Mortgage Risk: Evidence from an Emerging Market

John Campbell, Tarun Ramadorai and Benjamin Ranish

18393: The Joint Identification of Utility and Discount Functions From Stated Choice Data: An Application to Durable Goods Adoption

Jean-Pierre H. Dube, Günter J. Hitsch and Pranav Jindal

18392: The Effects of Environmental Regulation on the Competitiveness of U.S. Manufacturing

Michael Greenstone, John List and Chad Syverson

18391: Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests

Francis Diebold

18390: Shale Gas Development and Property Values: Differences across Drinking Water Sources

Lucija Muehlenbachs, Elisheba Spiller and Christopher Timmins

18389: The Supply of and Demand for Charitable Donations to Higher Education

Jeffrey Brown, Stephen Dimmock and Scott Weisbenner

18388: The New Deal and the Origins of the Modern American Real Estate Loan Contract

Jonathan Rose and Kenneth Snowden

18387: Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment

Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange and Matthew Notowidigdo

18386: The United States Labor Market: Status Quo or A New Normal?

Edward Lazear and James Spletzer

18385: Public Procurement and the Private Supply of Green Buildings

Timothy Simcoe and Michael Toffel

18384: A Cautionary Note on Using Industry Affiliation to Predict Income

Jorn-Steffen Pischke and Hannes Schwandt

18383: Russian Inequality on the Eve of Revolution

Steven Nafziger and Peter Lindert

18382: Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates

Charles Engel, Nelson Mark and Kenneth West

18381: Fiscal Multipliers: Liquidity Traps and Currency Unions

Emmanuel Farhi and Iván Werning

18380: On the Solvency of Nations: Cross-Country Evidence on the Dynamics of External Adjustment

C. Bora Durdu, Enrique Mendoza and Marco Terrones

18379: An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise

Enrique Mendoza and Marco Terrones

18378: State vs Consumer Regulation: An Evaluation of Two Road Safety Interventions in Kenya

James Habyarimana and William Jack

18377: Debt Fragility and Bailouts

Russell Cooper

18376: A Study of the Extent and Potential Causes of Alternative Employment Arrangements

Peter Cappelli and J. R. Keller

18375: Predation, Taxation, Investment, and Violence: Evidence from the Philippines

Eli Berman, Joseph Felter, Ethan Kapstein and Erin Troland

18374: Beyond Happiness and Satisfaction: Toward Well-Being Indices Based on Stated Preference

Daniel Benjamin, Ori Heffetz, Miles Kimball and Nichole Szembrot

18373: Site Selection Bias in Program Evaluation

Hunt Allcott

18372: Capital Mobility and International Sharing of Cyclical Risk

Julien Bengui, Enrique Mendoza and Vincenzo Quadrini

18371: Early-Life Health and Adult Circumstance in Developing Countries

Janet Currie and Tom Vogl

18370: The Cyclical Response of Advertising Refutes Counter-Cyclical Profit Margins in Favor of Product-Market Frictions

Robert Hall

18369: Expanding School Resources and Increasing Time on Task: Effects of a Policy Experiment in Israel on Student Academic Achievement and Behavior

Victor Lavy

18368: Healing the Wounds: Learning from Sierra Leone's Post-war Institutional Reforms

Katherine Casey, Rachel Glennerster and Edward Miguel

18367: Systematic Risk, Debt Maturity, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads

Hui Chen, Yu Xu and Jun Yang

18366: Home Production, Labor Wedges, and International Real Business Cycles

Loukas Karabarbounis

18365: Continuous-Time Methods for Integrated Assessment Models

Yongyang Cai, Kenneth Judd and Thomas Lontzek

18364: Explaining Preferences for Control Rights in Strategic Alliances: A Property Rights and Capabilities Perspective Approach

Carolin Haeussler and Matthew Higgins

18363: Sovereign Debt in Latin America, 1820-1913

Gerardo della Paolera and Alan Taylor

18362: Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants

Hideaki Hirata, Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok and Marco Terrones

18361: Recessions, Older Workers, and Longevity: How Long Are Recessions Good For Your Health?

Courtney Coile, Phillip Levine and Robin McKnight

18360: The Asymmetric Effects of Financial Frictions

Guillermo Ordonez

18359: Consumer Inertia and Firm Pricing in the Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Insurance Exchange

Keith Ericson

18358: Valuation, Adverse Selection, and Market Collapses

Michael J. Fishman and Jonathan Parker

18357: A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets

Ravi Bansal and Ivan Shaliastovich

18356: Syndicated Loan Spreads and the Composition of the Syndicate

Jongha Lim, Bernadette A. Minton and Michael Weisbach

18355: Elections and the Quality of Public Officials: Evidence from U.S. State Courts

Claire S.H. Lim and James Snyder

18354: A Theory of Political and Economic Cycles

Laurence Ales, Pricila Maziero and Pierre Yared

18353: Foreclosure externalities: Some new evidence

Kristopher Gerardi, Eric Rosenblatt, Paul Willen and Vincent Yao

18352: A Tale of Politically-Failing Single-Currency Area

Assaf Razin and Steven Rosefielde

18351: Network Structure and the Aggregation of Information: Theory and Evidence from Indonesia

Vivi Alatas, Abhijit Banerjee, Arun Chandrasekhar, Rema Hanna and Benjamin Olken

18350: From Empty Pews to Empty Cradles: Fertility Decline Among European Catholics

Eli Berman, Laurence Iannaccone and Giuseppe Ragusa

18349: Does the Effect of Pollution on Infant Mortality Differ Between Developing and Developed Countries? Evidence from Mexico City

Eva Arceo-Gomez, Rema Hanna and Paulina Oliva

18348: Refining Linear Rational Expectations Models and Equilibria

Seonghoon Cho and Bennett McCallum

18347: Wages and Informality in Developing Countries

Costas Meghir, Renata Narita and Jean-Marc Robin

18346: R&D and the Incentives from Merger and Acquisition Activity

Gordon Phillips and Alexei Zhdanov

18345: Temperature, Human Health, and Adaptation: A Review of the Empirical Literature

Olivier Deschenes

18344: Knowledge is (Less) Power: Experimental Evidence from Residential Energy Use

Katrina Jessoe and David Rapson

18343: The Labor Market Returns to a For-Profit College Education

Stephanie Riegg Cellini and Latika Chaudhary

18342: The Distributional Effects of the Social Security Windfall Elimination Provision

Jeffrey Brown and Scott Weisbenner

18341: The Impact of Physical Education on Obesity among Elementary School Children

John Cawley, David Frisvold and Chad Meyerhoefer

18340: Promotional Reviews: An Empirical Investigation of Online Review Manipulation

Dina Mayzlin, Yaniv Dover and Judith Chevalier

18339: Mortgage Market Design

John Campbell

18338: Back to the Future? Abortion Before & After Roe

Ted Joyce, Ruoding Tan and Yuxiu Zhang

18337: Sources of Comparative Advantage in Polluting Industries

Fernando Broner, Paula Bustos and Vasco Carvalho

18336: The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidations

Alberto Alesina, Carlo Favero and Francesco Giavazzi

18335: Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-9

Tobias Adrian, Paolo Colla and Hyun Song Shin

18334: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries

Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu

18333: Entrepreneurship and Urban Growth: An Empirical Assessment with Historical Mines

Edward Glaeser, Sari Pekkala Kerr and William Kerr

18332: Equalizing Outcomes and Equalizing Opportunities: Optimal Taxation when Children's Abilities Depend on Parents' Resources

Alexander Gelber and Matthew Weinzierl

18331: Mussa Redux and Conditional PPP

Paul Bergin, Reuven Glick and Jyh-Lin Wu

18330: Taylor Rule Exchange Rate Forecasting During the Financial Crisis

Tanya Molodtsova and David Papell

18329: Debt- and Equity-Led Capital Flow Episodes

Kristin Forbes and Francis Warnock

18328: Development, Discouragement, or Diversion? New Evidence on the Effects of College Remediation

Judith Scott-Clayton and Olga Rodriguez

18327: Lead Policy and Academic Performance: Insights from Massachusetts

Jessica Wolpaw Reyes

18326: Do Higher Tobacco Taxes Reduce Adult Smoking? New Evidence of the Effect of Recent Cigarette Tax Increases on Adult Smoking

Kevin Callison and Robert Kaestner

18325: Hoping to Win, Expected to Lose: Theory and Lessons on Micro Enterprise Development

Dean Karlan, Ryan Knight and Christopher Udry

18324: The Effect of School Choice on Intrinsic Motivation and Academic Outcomes

Justine Hastings, Christopher Neilson and Seth Zimmerman

18323: A Continuity Refinement for Rational Expectations Solutions

Bennett McCallum

18322: The Effect of Income and Immigration Policies on International Migration

Francesc Ortega and Giovanni Peri

18321: The Cost of Financial Frictions for Life Insurers

Ralph Koijen and Motohiro Yogo

18320: Race and the Politics of Close Elections

Tom Vogl

18319: Marriage Institutions and Sibling Competition: Evidence from South Asia

Tom Vogl

18318: Height, Skills, and Labor Market Outcomes in Mexico

Tom Vogl

18317: The Value of Bosses

Edward Lazear, Kathryn Shaw and Christopher T. Stanton

18316: Do Patent Pools Encourage Innovation? Evidence from 20 U.S. Industries under the New Deal

Ryan L. Lampe and Petra Moser

18315: Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds

Robert Gordon

18314: International Prices and Endogenous Quality

Robert Feenstra and John Romalis

18313: The Need for Enemies

Leopoldo Fergusson, James Robinson, Ragnar Torvik and Juan Vargas

18312: Resident Networks and Firm Trade

Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun and Christopher Malloy

18311: Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program

Sumit Agarwal, Gene Amromin, Itzhak Ben-David, Souphala Chomsisengphet, Tomasz Piskorski and Amit Seru