NBER Working Papers

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35686: Legislating Longevity: State Public Health Laws and Mortality in the Early Twentieth Century

Martin Saavedra

35685: A Deep Case for Shallow Integration

John Sturm Becko and Arnaud Costinot

35684: Canaries in the Gold Mine: Early Productivity Gains from Artificial Intelligence Creating Organization Capital

Tania Babina, Alex X. He and Renhao Jiang

35683: Can Private Markets Fill the Gap? Graduate Student Lending After the Elimination of GradPLUS

Sarah Turner

35682: Pollution Pricing in Equilibrium: Production, Reallocation, and Aggregate Impacts

R. Andrew Butters, Jackson Dorsey and Ivan Rudik

35681: Spillover Effects of Transfer Programs

Travis Baseler, Jules Gazeaud and Erik Snowberg

35680: The Anatomy and Evolution of Survey Error

Bruce Meyer, Nikolas Mittag, Derek Wu, Anthony Tatarka and Patrick Langetieg

35679: An Efficient Liquidity Savings Mechanism

Darrell Duffie, Srisht F. Singh and Chaojun Wang

35678: Smart Contracting in Network Markets

Darrell Duffie and Chaojun Wang

35677: What Work Does Generative AI Do?

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, David Deming and Tyler R. Schumacher

35676: Firms as Electoral Monopsonies

Carlos Avenancio-Leon, Adelina Barbalau, Cyndi Hou and Alessio Piccolo

35675: The Distribution and Consequences of Natural Disasters: Evidence from U.S. Wildfire Victims

Patrick Baylis, Judson Boomhower, Jonathan Colmer and John L. Voorheis

35674: Can We Build More Effective Place-Based Policies? Theory and Evidence

Matthew Freedman and David Neumark

35673: This Time Is (Mostly) Different: U.S. Tightening Cycles and Global Resilience in the 1980s vs 2020s

Drishan Banerjee, Galina Hale and Harrison Shieh

35672: Explaining the Predictive Performance of Police in Cases of Domestic Abuse

Jeffrey Grogger, Andrew Jordan and Tom Kirchmaier

35671: Kumon Up: Private Tutoring Centers and Student Achievement

Joshua Goodman and Samuel Nitkin

35670: Air Pollution and Learning

A. Patrick Behrer, Joshua Goodman, J. Parker Goyer and R. Jisung Park

35669: Fool's Gold? How the USD lost its Shine

Kai Arvai, Nuno Coimbra and Marco Pinchetti

35668: Labor Mobility and the Level of Unemployment in a Currency Union

Erin P. Gibson, Christopher House, Christian Proebsting and Linda Tesar

35667: A Theory of International Official Lending

Qing Liu, Zanhui Liu and Vivian Yue

35666: Making Everyone’s Preferences Count: A Prospect Theory Approach to Valuing Health Improvements

Karen Mulligan, Drishti Baid, Jason Doctor and Darius Lakdawalla

35665: Democratizing Private Markets: Equilibrium Predictions

Lubos Pastor, Robert Stambaugh and Lucian A. Taylor

35664: Rising Income Risk at the Top

J. Carter Braxton, Kyle F. Herkenhoff, Chengdai Huang, Michael Nattinger, Jonathan Rothbaum and Lawrence Schmidt

35663: CentaurBench: Benchmarking LLM Capabilities on Augmenting vs. Automating Real-World Work Tasks

Pattaraphon Kenny Wongchamcharoen, Kris Gulati, Min Min Fong and Abhishek Nagaraj

35662: The Impact of Fiscal Policy to Promote Healthy Diets: Evidence from the Navajo Nation

John Cawley, Mallory Dreyer and Kosali Simon

35661: Tariff-Dispersion Shocks: The Mean is the Variance

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martín Uribe

35660: Fear as a Campaign Tool: Evidence from the 2014 U.S. Ebola Scare

Filipe Campante, Emilio Depetris-Chauvin and Ruben Durante

35659: The Effects of SNAP Sugary Drink Restrictions on Consumption and Welfare

Hunt Allcott, Amy Finkelstein, Anna Grummon and Matthew Notowidigdo

35658: Measuring the Welfare Gains from Cardinal-Preference Mechanisms in School Choice

Hülya Eraslan, Jeremy Fox and YingHua He

35657: The Data Revolution, and Its Uses, in International Trade

David Atkin and Benjamin Faber

35656: Cultural Evolution

Oded Galor, Marc Klemp and Daniel Wainstock

35655: Crypto Capture of Foreign Aid

Sumit Agarwal, Peiyi Jin, Eswar Prasad and Daniel Rabetti

35654: Critical Minerals, Geopolitics, and the Green Transition

Tomás Domínguez-Iino, Jonathan T. Elliott and Allan Hsiao

35653: To Tax or To Ax? Marginal Tax and Spending Multipliers in Consolidations

Roberto Perotti and Luca Sala

35652: A Model of Global Firms and Capital Markets

Loukas Karabarbounis, Bruno Pellegrino and Juliana Salomao

35651: Falling Fertility: The Changing Value of Freedom, Fulfillment, and Family

Raquel Fernandez, Inés Berniell and Milagros Onofri

35650: The Meritocratic Consensus and Stratification in Higher Education

Zachary Bleemer and Jesse Rothstein

35649: The Effect of Childcare on Female Labor Supply and Child Development in Low and Middle Income Countries

Serena Goldberg and Costas Meghir

35648: Do Local Synthetic Opioid Overdose Deaths Affect Provider Prescribing of Buprenorphine?

Nicole Siegal, Sumedha Gupta, Matthew C. Aalsma, Stephen Crystal, Jennifer Miles, Hillary Samples, Allen Campbell, Kosali Simon and Rosalie Pacula

35647: Currency Dominance Is Not Forever: Some Insights from a Non-Linear Dynamic Model

Michael Bordo and Cécile Bastidon

35646: Spillover Effects of Regulatory Inspections: Evidence from OSHA

Matthew S. Johnson, David Levine and Michael Toffel

35645: Stress Testing Cardiac Care Markets through Deregulation

Daniel R. Arnold, Michael R. Richards, Yashaswini Singh and Christopher Whaley

35644: Where the Grass Seems Greener: Economic Misperceptions and Support for Democracy

Daron Acemoglu, Nicolas Ajzenman, Guillermo Cruces, Martin Fiszbein, Gaston Garcia Zavaleta and Carlos Molina

35643: Survival Analysis with Limited Overlap and Censoring Distribution Shift

Meera Krishnamoorthy, Donna Tjandra, Divya Shanmugam, Amanda E. Kowalski and Jenna Wiens

35642: Monetary-Fiscal Interactions: A Reappraisal

George-Marios Angeletos, Chen Lian, Christian Wolf and Dalton Rongxuan Zhang

35641: Benchmark Mineability and the Financing of AI Innovation

Alex Chan

35640: Labor Market Power with Worker and Firm Heterogeneity

David Berger, Kyle F. Herkenhoff, Jaehun Jeong and Simon Mongey

35639: Local Labor Demand and Achievement Gaps: Evidence from the Great Recession

Karla Cordova and Jessamyn Schaller

35638: Tracing the Impact of Payment Convenience on Deposits: Evidence from Depositor Activeness

Xu Lu, Yang Song and Yao Zeng

35637: Political Entrepreneurs

Aaron Chatterji, Jorge Guzman, Joyce Ma and Ryan McDevitt

35636: Rate Risk and Rate Insurance

Olivier Wang

35635: Occupational Licensing of Uber Drivers

Jonathan Hall, Jason Hicks, Morris M. Kleiner and Yun taek Oh

35634: The Yeoman's Portfolio: Measuring Historical Risk Preferences Using Crop Choice

Remy Levin and Daniela Vidart

35633: Instrument Hacking

Michael Keane, Timothy Neal and Patrick Vu

35632: Taxpayer Behavior in the Age of AI: A Field Experiment on Property Tax Appeals

Justin Holz, Ricardo Perez-Truglia, Andrew Simon and Alejandro Zentner

35631: Selection into Medicine

Diane Alexander and Molly Schnell

35630: Tariffs, Investment, and the Missing Trade Collapse

Francesco Ferrante, Andrea Prestipino, Andrea Raffo and Michael Waugh

35629: Optimal Experimental Design and Estimation when Potential Outcomes are Bounded

Peter Hull

35628: Do Minimum Wages Help Workers in Poor and Low-Income Families?

David Neumark and Emma Wohl

35627: Provider Altruism and Medical Fraud: Evidence from an Audit Study of Malaria Treatment

Paul Gertler and Ada Kwan

35626: Outside Options and Labor Supply: Evidence from the Gig Economy

Sydnee Caldwell and Emily Oehlsen

35625: When Public Signals Backfire: Strategic Disclosure and Information Crowd-Out

Marty Haoyuan Chen and Ginger Zhe Jin

35624: Sticky Wage Norms and the Real Wage Cost of Unexpected Inflation

Erik Hurst, Christina Patterson, Nela Thomas Richardson and Ye Liv Wang

35623: Race and Redistricting in Local Governments

Carlos Avenancio-Leon, Daniel Jones and Ying Shi

35622: Virtual Tutoring with Computer-Assisted Learning: An Experiment in Take-Up and Learning

Philip Oreopoulos, Ruochong Dong and Nina Low

35621: Making AI Tutoring Productive: Evidence from a Mastery-Based Math Practice Experiment

Philip Oreopoulos, Michael Liut, Alp Sungu and Nina Low

35620: One Click Away: AI Tutoring with Khanmigo in a Two-Year School Experiment

Philip Oreopoulos and Nina Low

35619: Institutional Variation in Child Maltreatment Reporting

E. Jason Baron, Micah Y. Baum, Joseph J. Doyle, Maria Fitzpatrick, Brian Jacob and Joseph P. Ryan

35618: The Global Transition – The Impact of Demographics and AI on Economic Power

Seth G. Benzell, Laurence Kotlikoff and Victor Yifan Ye

35617: The Cov-lite Liquidity Advantage, Regulatory Pressures, and the Evolution of the Leveraged Loan Market

Robert Prilmeier and René M. Stulz

35616: Do Children Derail Women from the CEO Track?

Santiago Campos-Rodríguez and David Neumark

35615: Identifying Policy Causal Effects from Rule Changes

Ed Manuel and Christian Wolf

35614: Declining Occupations and Career Outcomes in the United States

Erling Barth, Maria Hoen, Sari Pekkala Kerr and William Kerr

35613: Short-Run Impacts of SNAP Restriction Waivers on Beverage Purchases

David Frisvold and Felipe Lozano Rojas

35612: Beliefs about Government Debt Valuation and Sustainability

Ricardo Delao and Wenhao Li

35611: Social Clubs and Political Office

Julien Labonne, Pablo Querubin, Martín Rossi, Sebastian M. Saiegh, Ivan San Miguel and Shanker Satyanath

35610: The Limits of Government Outsourcing: Property Tax Re-Assessments in India

Esther Duflo, Rema Hanna, Benjamin Olken and Shreya Tandon

35609: Exchange Rates, Structural Change, and Productivity Growth

Paul Bergin, Woo Jin Choi and Ju Hyun Pyun

35608: Monopsony Makes it Big

Sydnee Caldwell, Arindrajit Dube and Suresh Naidu

35607: Credit Card Banking

Itamar Drechsler, Hyeyoon Jung, Weiyu Peng, Dominik Supera and Guanyu Zhou

35606: Supplemental Medicare Insurance Coverage for Older Adults with Probable Dementia

Melissa McInerney, Lorena Moreno and Jennifer M. Mellor

35605: Search and Negotiation with Biased Beliefs in Consumer Credit Markets

Erik Berwart, Sean Higgins, Sheisha Kulkarni and Santiago Truffa

35604: Algorithm-Driven SVARs: Navigating the Wilderness of Big Data

Yucheng Yang and Tao Zha

35603: Teen Suicide and the Outcomes of Surviving Peers

Emily Cuddy, Janet Currie, Elisa Jácome and Lucy Manly

35602: Colleges, Assortative Mating, and Intergenerational Mobility in Twentieth-Century America

Ran Abramitzky, Santiago Perez and Joseph Price

35601: The Impact of Suicide Hotlines on Health: Evidence from 988 Implementation

Benjamin Hansen, Niketana Kannan and Jonathan Zhang

35600: Recall Fluency, Beliefs and Behavior

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Matthew O'Brien and Andrei Shleifer

35599: From Social Savings to Spatial Equilibrium: Evaluating Transportation Improvements in Quantitative Spatial Models

Treb Allen, Simon Fuchs and Woan Foong Wong

35598: Choosing To Fail: Managerial Liability, Risk Management and Voluntary Exits of Banks

Haelim Anderson, Charles Calomiris and Jennifer S. Rhee

35597: AI in a Fragmenting World

Barry Eichengreen, George Cui, Asmaa A. El-Ganainy, Yevgeniya Koriyenko, Elyad Shojaei, Li Zeng and Shihangyin Zhang

35596: The Effects of Ads on Beliefs and Implications for Consumer Search

Jean-Pierre H. Dubé, Ilya Morozov, Franklin She and Anna Tuchman

35595: Dynamic Effects of Trade

Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu and Stephen Redding

35594: Idea Rents and Firm Growth

Timo Boppart, Peter J. Klenow, Reiko Laski and Huiyu Li

35593: More Frequent Than You Think: Revisiting Capital Structure Adjustment

Zhiguo He, Peter DeMarzo and Qiping Xu

35592: The Intrinsic Valuation of Biodiversity Loss

Adrien Bilal, Noémie Pinardon-Touati and Conor Walsh

35591: Fetal Pollution Exposure, Cognitive Ability, and Gender-specific Parental Investment

Xin Zhang, Yixuan Wang, Xingyi Hu and Xi Chen

35590: The Perils of Bilateral Sovereign Debt

Francisco Roldán and Cesar Sosa-Padilla

35589: Income Shocks and Intrahousehold Dynamics: Evidence from a Guaranteed Income Experiment

Elizabeth Rhodes, David E. Broockman, Eva Vivalt, Patrick K. Krause, Sarah Miller and Alexander Bartik

35588: AI Agents and Prompt Engineering in Econometric Coding

Sebastian Galiani, Federico Ariel López and Raul A. Sosa

35587: Property Taxes and Housing Allocation Under Financial Constraints

Joshua Coven, Sebastian Golder, Arpit Gupta and Abdoulaye Ndiaye