NBER Working Papers

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33962: Uncertainty in Empirical Economics

Frank Schorfheide and Zhiheng You

33961: Immigration and Inequality in the Next Generation

Mark Borgschulte, Heepyung Cho, Darren Lubotsky and Jonathan Rothbaum

33960: Borrowing Constraints, Markups, and Misallocation

Huiyu Li, Chen Lian, Yueran Ma and Emily Martell

33959: Net Worth Poverty in Childhood: How Duration and Timing Affect Educational Outcomes

Christina M. Gibson-Davis, Lisa A. Keister, Lisa A. Gennetian and Shuyi Qiu

33958: Building Costs and House Prices

Brian Potter and Chad Syverson

33957: Blockbusters, Sequels and the Nature of Innovation

Wesley M. Cohen, Matthew Higgins, William D. Miles and Yoko Shibuya

33956: The Net Benefits of Raising Bachelor’s Degree Completion through the City University of New York ACE Program

Judith Scott-Clayton, Irwin Garfinkel, Elizabeth Ananat, Sophie M. Collyer, Robert Hartley, Anastasia Koutavas, Buyi Wang and Christopher Wimer

33955: Maturity Risks and Bank Runs

Jihene Arfaoui and Harald Uhlig

33954: Do Physicians Follow the Golden Rule? Evidence of Imperfect Agency and Moral Hazard from Physicians’ Self-Prescriptions

Mariana Carrera and Niels Skipper

33953: Uncertainty through the Production Network: Sectoral Origins and Macroeconomic Implications

Matteo Cacciatore and Giacomo Candian

33952: FCI-star

Ricardo Caballero, Tomás E. Caravello and Alp Simsek

33951: Tapping Business and Household Surveys to Sharpen Our View of Work from Home

Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Kathryn Bonney, Cory L. Breaux, Catherine Buffington, Steven Davis, Lucia Foster, Brian McKenzie, Keith Savage and Cristina Tello-Trillo

33950: Life Satisfaction in Western Europe and the Gradual Vanishing of the U-shape in Age

David Blanchflower and Alex Bryson

33949: Designing Human-AI Collaboration: A Sufficient-Statistic Approach

Nikhil Agarwal, Alex Moehring and Alexander Wolitzky

33948: A Matter of Time? Measuring Effects of Public Schooling Expansions on Families

Chloe Gibbs, Jocelyn S. Wikle and Riley Wilson

33947: Culture, Policy, and Economic Development

Natalie Bau, Sara Lowes and Eduardo Montero

33946: Quantifying Racial Disparities Using Consecutive Employment Spells

Isaac Sorkin

33945: Small Business Innovation Applied to National Needs

Kyle Myers, Lauren Lanahan and Evan Johnson

33944: Funding the U.S. Scientific Training Ecosystem: New Data, Methods, and Evidence

Dror Shvadron, Hansen Zhang, Lee Fleming and Daniel Gross

33943: Financing the Next VC-Backed Startup: The Role of Gender

Camille Hebert, Emmanuel Yimfor and Heather Tookes

33942: Private Equity and Workers: Modeling and Measuring Monopsony, Implicit Contracts, and Efficient Reallocation

Kyle F. Herkenhoff, Josh Lerner, Gordon Phillips, Francisca Rebelo and Benjamin Sampson

33941: Expertise

David Autor and Neil Thompson

33940: Convenience Lost

Zhengyang Jiang, Robert Richmond and Tony Zhang

33939: Production Function Estimation without Invertibility: Imperfectly Competitive Environments and Demand Shocks

Ulrich Doraszelski and Lixiong Li

33938: Group Health Insurance Versus ACA Marketplaces: Selection, Subsidies, and Welfare

Sebastian Fleitas, Caitlyn Fleming, Gautam Gowrisankaran and Anthony T. Lo Sasso

33937: Medical School Closures, Market Adjustment, and Mortality in the Flexner Report Era

Karen Clay, Grant Miller, Margarita Portnykh and Ethan J. Schmick

33936: Cosmetology Gets a Trim: The Impact of Reducing Licensing Hours on Colleges and Students

Nicolas Acevedo Rebolledo, Kathryn J. Blanchard and Stephanie Riegg Cellini

33935: Health Insurance Protections and Ex Ante Moral Hazard in Risky Health Behaviors

Barış Yörük, Joseph J. Sabia, Tessie Krishna and Dhaval Dave

33934: Transition to Green Technology along the Supply Chain

Philippe Aghion, Lint Barrage, Eric Donald, David Hemous and Ernest Liu

33933: Controlling Collective Attention: Flooding versus Focusing by Politicians

Joshua Gans

33932: Is Less Really More? Comparing the Climate and Productivity Impacts of a Shrinking Population

Mark Budolfson, Michael Geruso, Kevin J. Kuruc, Dean Spears and Sangita Vyas

33931: The Longevity of Older Wives and Their Husbands: Comparing Actual Couples with Synthetic Couples

Janice Compton, Robert Pollak and Seth G. Sanders

33930: The Labor Supply Curve is Upward Sloping: The Effects of Immigrant-Induced Demand Shocks

Sigurd Galaasen, Andreas Kostøl, Joan Monras and Jonathan Vogel

33929: Macro Shocks and Firm-Level Response Heterogeneity

Steven Davis, Stephen Hansen and Cristhian Seminario-Amez

33928: Economic Models of Cultural Transmission

Alberto Bisin and Thierry Verdier

33927: Bequests

Charles Horioka

33926: Welfare Programs and Crime Spillovers

David Jinkins, Elira Kuka and Claudio Labanca

33925: Does Matching Contribution Incentivize Informal Workers to Participate in Retirement Saving Plans? A Randomized Evaluation Interacted with a Natural Experiment

Noelia Bernal Lobato, Sebastian Galiani and Oswaldo Molina

33924: Using AI to Generate Option C Scaling Ideas: A Case Study in Early Education

Faith Fatchen, John List and Francesca Pagnotta

33923: Like Great-Grandparent, Like Great-Grandchild? Multigenerational Mobility in American History

Zachary Ward, Kasey Buckles and Joseph Price

33922: The Neoclassical Theory of Firm Investment and Taxes: A Reassessment

Gabriel Chodorow-Reich

33921: Increasing Degree Attainment Among Low-Income Students: The Role of Intensive Advising and College Quality

Andrew C. Barr and Ben Castleman

33920: The Social Desirability Atlas

Leonardo Bursztyn, Ingar K. Haaland, Nicolas Röver and Christopher Roth

33919: Scalable Targeting of Social Protection: When Do Algorithms Out-Perform Surveys and Community Knowledge?

Emily Aiken, Anik Ashraf, Joshua Blumenstock, Raymond Guiteras and Ahmed Mobarak

33918: Who Benefits from Paid Family Leave? The Impact on Informal and Formal Care for Middle-Aged and Older Adults with Disabilities

Yuting Qian and Xi Chen

33917: Nicotine Vaping and Youth Mental Health: New Evidence from E-Cigarette Regulations

Chad Cotti, Tessie Krishna, Johanna Maclean, Erik Nesson and Joseph J. Sabia

33916: Abortion Restrictions and Intimate Partner Violence in the Dobbs Era

Dhaval Dave, Christine Durrance, Bilge Erten, Yang Wang and Barbara Wolfe

33915: Defaulting 401(k) Assets into Payout Annuities for “Pretty Good” Lifetime Incomes

Vanya Horneff, Raimond Maurer and Olivia Mitchell

33914: Firm Investment and the User Cost of Capital: New U.S. Corporate Tax Reform Evidence

Jonathan S. Hartley, Kevin Hassett and Joshua Rauh

33913: Childless or Child-fewer? Childlessness and Parity Progression where Fertility is Below Replacement

Michael Geruso and Dean Spears

33912: Wildfire, Smoke and Mental Health in Canada

Janet Currie and Soodeh Saberian

33911: ‘Sorting’ Out Gender Discrimination and Disadvantage: Evidence from Student Evaluations of Teaching

Sara Ayllón, Lars Lefgren, Richard Patterson, Olga Stoddard and Nicolas Urdaneta

33910: Efficiency in Job-Ladder Models

Masao Fukui and Toshihiko Mukoyama

33909: How Does Privacy Regulation Affect Transatlantic Venture Investment? Evidence from GDPR

Jian Jia, Ginger Zhe Jin, Mario Leccese and Liad Wagman

33908: Labor Markets in Developing Countries

Emily Breza and Supreet Kaur

33907: Growth in AI Knowledge

Joshua Gans

33906: Long-term Vertical Contracts, Geography, and the Persistence of Brand Shares

Robert Clark, Jean-François Houde and Xinrong Zhu

33905: Racial Disparities in Mortality by Sex, Age, and Cause of Death

Robert Kaestner, Anuj Gangopadhyaya and Cuiping Schiman

33904: Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects of the Opioid Epidemic

Carolina Arteaga and Victoria Barone

33903: Pushing the Envelope: The Effects of Salary Negotiations

Zoë B. Cullen, Bobak Pakzad-Hurson and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

33902: The French Touch: Product Quality and France’s Great Trade Liberalization, 1850-1874

Stéphane Becuwe, Bertrand Blancheton and Christopher Meissner

33901: Measuring Markets for Network Goods

Leonardo Bursztyn, Matthew Gentzkow, Rafael Jiménez-Durán, Aaron Leonard, Filip Milojević and Christopher Roth

33900: Financial Firepower: School Shootings and the Strategic Contributions of Pro-Gun PACs

Eric A. Baldwin, Takuma Iwasaki and John Donohue

33899: Public and Private Transit: Evidence from Lagos

Daniel Björkegren, Alice Duhaut, Geetika Nagpal and Nick Tsivanidis

33898: A Dynamic Theory of Optimal Tariffs

Eduardo Davila, Andres Rodriguez-Clare, Andreas Schaab and Stacy Tan

33897: Public Debt Bubbles, Liquidity, and Risk: Policy Assessments Based on the Zero-Beta Interest Rate

Narayana Kocherlakota

33896: On the Measurement of Social Heterogeneity

Klaus Desmet, Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín and Romain Wacziarg

33895: Measuring Industrial Policy: A Text-Based Approach

Réka Juhász, Nathaniel Lane, Emily Oehlsen and Veronica Perez

33894: From Tank to Odometer: Winners and Losers from a Gas-to-VMT Tax Shift

Christopher Knittel, Gilbert Metcalf and Shereein Saraf

33893: Capability Inversion: The Turing Test Meets Information Design

Joshua Gans

33892: AI and Social Media: A Political Economy Perspective

Daron Acemoglu, Asuman Ozdaglar and James Siderius

33891: Basic Income and the Dynamics of Employment and Human Capital in a Non-Urban Disadvantaged Setting

Jorge Luis Garcia, Patrick Warren and L. Reed Watson

33890: Do Vaping Taxes Tip the Scale? The Effect of E-Cigarette Taxation on Obesity

Charles Courtemanche, Tessie Krishna, Yang Liang, Joseph J. Sabia and Anthony Chuo

33889: Medicare Drug Price Negotiations May Not Reduce Patient Cost Sharing for Most Users of Targeted Drugs

Debra Lederman, Alexander L. Olssen and Mark Pauly

33888: Inflation Dynamics with a Generalized Lucas Phillips Curve

John Cochrane

33887: Trade within Multinational Boundaries

Laura Alfaro, Paola Conconi, Fariha Kamal and Zachary Kroff

33886: Competition and Management Upgrading: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia

Girum Abebe, Stefano Caria, Pascaline Dupas, Marcel Fafchamps and Tigabu Getahun

33885: Post-Pandemic Global Inflation, Disinflation, and Central Bank Policy Responses: A Review of the Facts, Empirical Findings, and their Implications for Monetary Policy Framework Assessments

Richard Clarida

33884: Firm Premia and Match Effects in Pay vs. Amenities

Anders Humlum, Mette Rasmussen and Evan K. Rose

33883: The Culture and Institutions of Confucianism

Ruixue Jia and James Kai-sing Kung

33882: Stablecoin Runs and the Centralization of Arbitrage

Yiming Ma, Yao Zeng and Anthony Lee Zhang

33881: Using Discrepancies to Correct for False Matches in Historical Linked Data

Yuya Sasaki and Ariell Zimran

33880: The Private Value of Innovating for the Government

Ashish Arora, Sharon Belenzon, Larisa C. Cioaca and Elia Ferracuti

33879: Information Spillovers within Couples: Evidence from a Sequential Survey of Spouses

Adeline Delavande, Gizem Kosar and Basit Zafar

33878: Assessing Maximum Employment: A Flow-Based Approach

Stefano Eusepi and Aysegul Sahin

33877: Trade and Industrial Policy in Supply Chains: Directed Technological Change in Rare Earths

Laura Alfaro, Harald Fadinger, Jan Schymik and Gede Virananda

33876: America's Housing Supply Problem: The Closing of the Suburban Frontier?

Edward Glaeser and Joseph Gyourko

33875: Collateral and Secured Debt

Adriano Rampini and S Viswanathan

33874: Why Do Households Save and Work?

Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi, Fang Yang and Johanna P. Torres Chain

33873: Social and Health Outcomes around Divorce: Evidence from New Zealand

Kabir Dasgupta, Andrew Johnston, Linda Kirkpatrick, Maxim N. Massenkoff and Alexander Plum

33872: How Longevity and Health Information Shapes Retirement Advice

Abigail Hurwitz and Olivia Mitchell

33871: Local Projections or VARs? A Primer for Macroeconomists

José Luis Montiel Olea, Mikkel Plagborg-Moller, Eric Qian and Christian Wolf

33870: The Effect of Non-Wage Competition on Corporate Profits

Ioannis Branikas, Briana Chang, Harrison Hong and Nan Li

33869: What Explains Growing Gender and Racial Education Gaps?

Zvi Eckstein, Michael Keane and Osnat Lifshitz

33868: A Quantitative Theory of Heterogeneous Returns to Wealth

Guido Menzio and Saverio Spinella

33867: Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment

Ping Wang and Russell Wong

33866: Collusion through Common Leadership

Alejandro Herrera-Caicedo, Jessica Jeffers and Elena Prager

33865: Job Sorting and the Labor Market Effects of a Criminal Record

Randi Hjalmarsson, Matthew Lindquist, Louis-Pierre Lepage and Conrad Miller

33864: Climbing the Energy Ladder: How Energy Resources Hinder, Facilitate, and Fuel Economic Growth

Derek Lemoine

33863: Administrative Fragmentation in Health Care

Riley League and Maggie Shi