NBER Working Papers

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34499: Playing Catch-up with Health Savings

Jacob Berman, Adam Bloomfield and Sita Slavov

34498: Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment

Joshua Goodman and Joseph Winkelmann

34497: Internal vs. External Shocks in Weakening Democracies: Evidence on Migration and Foreign Investment

Assaf Razin

34496: Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs

Alberto Cavallo, Paola Llamas and Franco M. Vazquez

34495: Laptops in the Long Run: Evidence from the One Laptop per Child Program in Rural Peru

Santiago Cueto, Diether Beuermann, Julian Cristia, Ofer Malamud and Francisco Pardo

34494: GCAP Public Security-Level Data on U.S. Fund Holdings

Bruno Cavani, Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger

34493: Forecasting Social Science: Evidence from 100 Projects

Stefano DellaVigna and Eva Vivalt

34492: The Logic of State Surveillance

Gemma Dipoppa and Annalisa Pezone

34491: Predictably Unpredictable Inspections

Ashvin Gandhi, Andrew Olenski and Maggie Shi

34490: An Anatomy of the Great Reallocation in US Supply Chain Trade

Laura Alfaro and Davin Chor

34489: Beliefs and Portfolios: Causal Evidence

Johannes Beutel and Michael Weber

34488: Social Dynamics of AI Adoption

Leonardo Bursztyn, Alex Imas, Rafael Jiménez-Durán, Aaron Leonard and Christopher Roth

34487: A Cold Stop: Temperature, Unemployment and Joblessness Dynamics

Joshua Graff Zivin, Anthony Lepinteur, Matthew Neidell and Adrian Nieto Castro

34486: Branching Fixed Effects: A Proposal for Communicating Uncertainty

Patrick Kline

34485: The Impact of State Paid Sick Leave Mandates on Medicaid-financed Prescription Medications

Sumedha Gupta, Johanna Maclean, Christopher Ruhm and Kosali Simon

34484: Do Test Scores Misrepresent Test Results? An Item-by-Item Analysis

Jesse Bruhn, Michael Gilraine, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan

34483: Economic Development According to Chandler

Niklas Engbom, Hannes Malmberg, Tommaso Porzio, Federico Rossi and Todd Schoellman

34482: Violent Peers at School: Impacts and Mechanisms

Victor Lavy and Assaf Yancu

34481: Occupations, Human Capital Accumulation and Inequality

Andres Erosa, Luisa Fuster, Gueorgui Kambourov and Richard Rogerson

34480: The Impact of Pay Transparency in Job Postings on the Labor Market

David Arnold, Simon Quach and Bledi Taska

34479: Rating Government Procurement Markets

Tatyana Deryugina, Alminas Žaldokas, Anastassia Fedyk, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, James Hodson and Ilona Sologoub

34478: Our Underappreciated International Reserve System

Serkan Arslanalp, Barry Eichengreen and Chima Simpson-Bell

34477: Middlemen in Search Equilibrium: A Survey

Xun (Grace) Gong, Ziqi Qiao and Randall Wright

34476: Taxing Identity

Joel Slemrod

34475: Stablecoins: A Revolutionary Payment Technology with Financial Risks

Rashad Ahmed, James A. Clouse, Fabio Natalucci, Alessandro Rebucci and Geyue Sun

34474: Portfolio Choice and Settlement Frictions: A Theory of Endogenous Convenience Yields

Javier Bianchi and Saki Bigio

34473: Leniency Designs: An Operator’s Manual

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Peter Hull and Michal Kolesár

34472: A Note on Factors Influencing Trust in Government

Michael J. Boskin, Alexander Kleiner and Ian T. Whiton

34471: Selling to Yourself: Continuation Funds in Private Equity

Rustam Abuzov, Will Gornall, Sophie Shive, Ilya Strebulaev and Michael S. Weisbach

34470: The Race Between Asset Supply and Asset Demand

Adrien Auclert, Hannes Malmberg, Matthew Rognlie and Ludwig Straub

34469: Disentangling Sources of Variation in C-Section Rates

Stefanie Fischer, Shuhei Kaneko, Heather Royer and Corey White

34468: The Coasean Singularity? Demand, Supply, and Market Design with AI Agents

Peyman Shahidi, Gili Rusak, Benjamin S. Manning, Andrey Fradkin and John Horton

34467: Welfare Implications of Increased Retailer Participation in SNAP

Anne T. Byrne, Xiao Dong, Jessie Handbury, Erik James, Katherine Meckel and Andrés C. Rovira

34466: Is Video Watching Bad for Kids? The Effect of Video Watching on Children's Skills

Carolina Caetano, Gregorio Caetano, Débora Mazetto and Meghan Skira

34465: Does Public Health Insurance Cause Crowding Into Public Facilities and Informality? The Case of Seguro Popular

Janet Currie, Lucy G. Hackett and Fernanda Marquez-Padilla

34464: Affordable Housing During Childhood Improves Long-term Outcomes of Women and their Children

Janet Currie and Jessica Van Parys

34463: Path Dependence in the Labor Market: The Long-run Effects of Early Career Occupational Experience

Jesse Bruhn, Jacob Fabian, Luke Gallagher, Matthew Gudgeon, Adam Isen and Aaron R. Phipps

34462: The Implications of Sorting for Immigrant Wage Assimilation and Changing Cohort Quality in Canada

Steven Lehrer and Luke Rawling

34461: The Mortgage Debt Channel of Monetary Policy when Mortgages are Liquid

Matthew Elias, Christian Gillitzer, Greg Kaplan, Gianni La Cava and Nalini V. Prasad

34460: Optimizing Retirement Financial Strategies: Integrating Annuities, Defined Contribution Plans, and Long-Term Care Costs

Vanya Horneff, Raimond Maurer, Olivia Mitchell and Julius Odenbreit

34459: The Economic Impact of Brexit

Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka and Gregory Thwaites

34458: Restrictive Marriage Migration Policies and Family Outcomes

So Yoon Ahn and Darren Lubotsky

34457: Branching Out: Capital Mobility and Long-Run Growth

Sarah Quincy and Chenzi Xu

34456: The Consequences of Faculty Sexual Misconduct

Sarah Cohodes and Katherine B. Leu

34455: Then and Now: A Look Back and Ahead at the Federal Budget

Alan Auerbach and William Gale

34454: Does Regulation Distort Exit Decisions? Evidence from U.S. Power Plants

Lucas Davis and Paige E. Weber

34453: Present Bias and Discount Rate Risk

Lars A. Lochstoer, Stig R. H. Lundeby and Zhaneta K. Tancheva

34452: The Effects of Immigration Enforcement on Student Outcomes in a New Era of Immigration Policy in the United States

David Figlio and Umut Özek

34451: People versus Places: Elite Persistence after the Fall of the Ming

Carol H. Shiue and Wolfgang Keller

34450: Demand Elasticity in Dynamic Asset Pricing

Zhiguo He, Péter Kondor and Jessica S. Li

34449: From Asia, With Skills

Gaurav Khanna

34448: Probability Pricing

Eduardo Davila, Cecilia Parlatore and Ansgar Walther

34447: The Roots of the Modern American Presidential Campaign

Francisco Pino and Laura Salisbury

34446: Investor Beliefs and Expectation Formation

Stefano Giglio, Matteo Maggiori, Joachim Rillo, Johannes Stroebel, Stephen P. Utkus and Xiao Xu

34445: Minimum Wages and Informality

Ellora Derenoncourt, Francois Gerard, Lorenzo Lagos and Claire Montialoux

34444: Artificial Intelligence, Competition, and Welfare

Susan Athey and Fiona Scott Morton

34443: Breaking Parity: Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Currency Premia

Mai Dao, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Oleg Itskhoki

34442: Motives and Constraints in the Implementation of Argentina’s 2017 Tax Reform

Santiago Afonso and Sebastian Galiani

34441: Leaving Money on the Dashboard: Price Dispersion and Search Frictions on Uber and Lyft

Jeffrey Fossett, Michael Luca and Yejia Xu

34440: Positioned at Extremes: Future Job Placements of Immigrant Students at U.S. Colleges

Francis M. Dillon, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William Kerr and Andrew J. Wang

34439: Employment Relationships, Wage Setting, and Labor Market Power

Francesco Agostinelli, Domenico Ferraro, Giuseppe Sorrenti and Leonard Treuren

34438: Environmental Catastrophe and the Direction of Invention: Evidence from the American Dust Bowl

Jacob Moscona

34437: The (In)effectiveness of Targeted Payroll Tax Reductions

Alessandra Fenizia, Nicholas Y. Li and Luca Citino

34436: Monetary Policy without an Anchor

Luigi Bocola, Alessandro Dovis, Kasper Jørgensen and Rishabh Kirpalani

34435: Cannabis and Respiratory Health

Jayani Jayawardhana, Jialin Hou and Johanna Maclean

34434: The Financial Consequences of Being Denied Benefit Access

Tatiana Homonoff, Min S. Lee and Katherine Meckel

34433: Pushing Back Against Private Practice: The Unintended Effects of Paying Public Doctors More

Jonathan Gruber, Núria Mas, Judit Vall Castello and Jaume Vives-i-Bastida

34432: Voting with Their Feet: Democratic Backsliding and Market-Minded Migration - Evidence from Israel and Europe

Assaf Razin

34431: Planes Overhead: How Airplane Noise Impacts Home Values

Florian Allroggen, R. John Hansman, Christopher Knittel, Jing Li, Xibo Wan and Juju Wang

34430: Political Information and Network Effects

Georgy Egorov, Sergei Guriev, Maxim Mironov and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya

34429: The GATT vs Inflation: Tokyo Drift

Andrew Greenland, James Lake and John Lopresti

34428: Vulnerability of the Public Safety System: Evidence from Micro-Shocks

Shooshan Danagoulian, Monica Deza, Johanna Maclean and Alberto Ortega

34427: Modeling and Measuring the Genetic Determinants of Child Development

Francesco Agostinelli and Zach Weingarten

34426: The Role of Private Debt in the Financial Ecosystem

Victoria Ivashina

34425: Same Crime, Different Time: Disparities in Judicial Outcomes for DWI Offenders

Jeffrey Denning, Benjamin Hansen, Lars Lefgren, Emily C. Leslie and Cody Tuttle

34424: The Price of Intelligence: How Should Socially-minded Firms Price and Deploy AI?

Nils H. Lehr and Pascual Restrepo

34423: We Won't be Missed: Work and Growth in the AGI World

Pascual Restrepo

34422: The Value of Banking Relationships

Howard Bodenhorn and Youwei Xing

34421: Political Power and Mortality: Heterogeneous Effects of the U.S. Voting Rights Act

Atheendar Venkataramani, Rourke O'Brien, Elizabeth F. Bair and Christopher A. Lowenstein

34420: The Prestakes of Stock Market Investing

Francesco Bianchi, Do Lee, Sydney Ludvigson and Sai Ma

34419: An Inverse-Ramsey Tax Rule

Luca Micheletto, Dylan T. Moore, Daniel Reck and Joel Slemrod

34418: Optimal Dual-Regime Business Tax Systems

Rishi Sharma, Joel Slemrod, Michael Stimmelmayr, John Wilson and Peter Choi

34417: Fraud at a Distance? How Remote Work Shapes Financial Misconduct

John Barrios, Jessie Jianwen Guo and Yanping Zhu

34416: The International Monetary System in the Last and Next 20 Years Redux

Barry Eichengreen and Raul Razo-Garcia

34415: Ideology in Government: Evidence from the Office of Indian Affairs and the Assimilation Era

Eric Chyn, Kareem Haggag and Christian Maruthiah

34414: Fast Action for Floods: RCT Evidence on Forecast-based Cash Transfers from Bangladesh and Nepal

Paul J. Christian, Felipe A. Dunsch, Jonas Heirman, Erin M. Kelley, Florence Kondylis, Gregory Lane, Jennifer Waidler, Nidhila Adusumalli, Odbayar Batmunkh and Kriti Malhotra

34413: The Musk Partisan Effect on Tesla Sales

Kenneth Gillingham, Matthew Kotchen, James Levinsohn and Barry Nalebuff

34412: The Cook County Tax on Sweetened Beverages: The Impact on Purchases of its Announcement, Implementation, and Repeal

Felipe Lozano Rojas, John Cawley and David Frisvold

34411: Lessons for Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers from the Great Recession and the COVID Recession

Karen Dynan and Douglas Elmendorf

34410: Managing Financial Crises

Gianluca Benigno, Alessandro Rebucci and Aliaksandr Zaretski

34409: Interpreting Turbulent Episodes in International Finance

Helene Rey and Vania Stavrakeva

34408: Trade Policy Ambiguity

Joseph Steinberg

34407: Intergenerational Mobility in Measures of Wellbeing: Consumption, Health and Life Satisfaction

Jonathan Davis, Nathan Deutscher and Bhashkar Mazumder

34406: Carbon Taxation and Firm Behavior in Emerging Economies: Evidence from South Africa

Johannes Gallé, Rodrigo Oliveira, Daniel Overbeck, Nadine Riedel and Edson Severnini

34405: Careers of Minimum Wage Workers

Sari Pekkala Kerr, William Kerr and Louis J. Maiden

34404: Monetary Policy and Housing Overvaluation

Nina Biljanovska, Eduardo Espuny Diaz, Amir Kermani and Rui C. Mano

34403: The Relationship Between Certificate of Need Laws and Mortality

Jonathan H. Cantor, Jill Horwitz, Christopher Whaley and Anthony Yu

34402: GDP Growth Expectations and Cash-flow Risk Premium

William Goetzmann, Akiko Watanabe and Masahiro Watanabe

34401: Strategic Avoidance and the Welfare Impacts of U.S. Solar Panel Tariffs

Todd Gerarden, Bryan K. Bollinger, Kenneth Gillingham and Yi Xu

34400: Does Increasing Financial Access to Contraception in the U.S. Reduce Undesired Pregnancies? Evidence from the M-CARES Randomized Control Trial at Two Years

Martha Bailey, Emilia Brito Rebolledo, Deniz Gorgulu, Kelsey Figone, Vanessa W. Lang, Alexa Prettyman and Vanessa Dalton