NBER Working Papers

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35327: 'Nobody Wants to Work Anymore': Lifetime Labor Market Experiences and the Decline of Male LFP in the United States

Remy Levin and Daniela Vidart

35326: A Cohort Perspective on Latin America's Fertility Transition

Regina Calles and Tom Vogl

35325: Dynamic Risk Adjustment in Markets with Persistent Risk and Manipulable Signals: Market Design for Health Insurance

Alex Chan

35324: The Female Sensitivity Hypothesis: Evidence From Experimental Economics

Felipe Araujo, Neeraja Gupta and Lise Vesterlund

35323: How Do Financial and Longevity Literacy Affect Annuity Demand?

Jeffrey Brown

35322: Can Online Activity Be Regulated? Evidence from Adult Websites

Matthew Brown, Emily J. Davis and Devin G. Pope

35321: Optimal Medical Liability for AI

Alex Chan

35320: Data-Driven Automation

Maryam Farboodi, Andrew J. Koh and Anchi Xia

35319: Beliefs and Actions under Government Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Student Loan Forgiveness

Dmitri K. Koustas, Michael Weber and Constantine Yannelis

35318: Sent Away: Displacement, Neighborhoods, and Children’s Outcomes under Slum Clearance Policies

Fernanda Rojas-Ampuero and Felipe Carrera

35317: Air Pollution and Internal Migration in the United States

Michael Keller, Christopher Knittel, Benjamin Krebs and Simon Luechinger

35316: Decomposing Shifts in the Beveridge Curve: Implications for Labor Market Dynamics and Inflation

Katharine Abraham, John Haltiwanger and Lea E. Rendell

35315: The Income Channel to Labor-Market Polarization

Diego Comin, Ana Danieli and Martí Mestieri

35314: Innovation without Borders? The Geography of Technological Diffusion

Ursel Baumann, Zoë B. Cullen, Ester Faia, Annalisa Ferrando, Ricardo Perez-Truglia and Judit Rariga

35313: Intergenerational Mobility in Late Qing Dynasty: Evidence from Northeast China

Kristina Butaeva, Steven Durlauf and Alexander Shapoval

35312: Bayesian Non-Persuasion

Joshua Gans

35311: How Small is Small? Non-linearities in Heterogeneous Agent Models

Javier Bianchi and Greg Kaplan

35310: Is the iPhone Birth Control? Causal Evidence from AT&T’s 2007–2011 Carrier Monopoly

Caitlin Myers and Ezekiel Hooper

35309: But I Like Doing This! Enjoyable Tasks, Contracting, and Automation

Joshua Gans

35308: Do Female Leaders Reduce Corruption? New Evidence from Brazil

Julieta Peveri and Clemence Tricaud

35307: Are carbon tariffs climate policy?

Gregory Casey, Kyle Meng and Ivan Rudik

35306: How Frontline Supervisors Shape Priorities: Evidence from Police Lieutenants

Matthew Gudgeon, Andrew Jordan and Taeho Kim

35305: Wagering the Bread Money: Sports Betting Legalization and Food Sufficiency

Xiaohui Guo, Lizhong Peng and Chad Meyerhoefer

35304: Regional Economic Impacts and Emission Responses under Solar Radiation Modification

Jenny Bjordal, Evelien van Dijk, Henri Cornec, Anthony Smith and Trude Storelvmo

35303: Falling Dominoes? The Impact of the US Exit from Free Trade on the Sustainability of Trade Cooperation

Barthélémy Bonadio, Andrei Levchenko and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

35302: Leveraging Artificial Intelligence and Field Experiments to Explore Novel Features of Parental Speech and Foster Child Development

Julie Pernaudet, John List, Arnoldo Müller-Molina, Majid Ahmadi, Imrul Huda, Ajay Sailopal and Dana Suskind

35301: Do Voters Punish Inflation or Pay Cuts? Inflation and Real Wages in U.S. Elections

Juan Felipe Riaño and Francesco Trebbi

35300: Explaining the Historical Rise and Recent Decline in Social Security Disability Insurance Enrollment

ManasI Deshpande, Maxwell Kellogg, Magne Mogstad and Kuan-Ju Tseng

35299: Characterizing the File Drawer: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis of Parent-Interventions Around the World

Peter Bergman and Nat Chowanajin

35298: Does Regional Variation in Wage Levels Identify the Effects of a National Minimum Wage?

Daniel Haanwinckel

35297: Macroeconomic and Fiscal Consequences of Quantitative Easing

Tobias Adrian, Christopher Erceg, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Lindé and Pawel Zabczyk

35296: GLP-1 Therapy and the Reshaping of Socioeconomic Gradients in Health

J. Felipe Montano-Campos, Bryan Tysinger, Dana Goldman and Darius Lakdawalla

35295: Predicting Labor Force Types

Rui Castro, Jiyoung Kim, Fabian Lange, Jérôme Larivière and Markus Poschke

35294: Measuring Housing Quality Using Revealed Preference: A Geographic PageRank Approach

Alex Bell, Sophie Calder-Wang and Shusheng Zhong

35293: The Effect of Height on Adolescents' Body Image Perceptions and Behaviors

Monica Deza, Neiva J. Fortes and Maria Zhu

35292: Reducing Gun Violence at Scale

Max Kapustin, Aaron Chalfin, Jeremy Biddle, Brian A. Wade, Natasha Khade, Cristina Layana, Ben Struhl and Anthony A. Braga

35291: Incentives, Evidence, and Reminders for Bureaucrats: Overcoming Barriers to Policy Scale Up

Patrick Agte, Daniel R. Morales, Christopher Neilson, Sebastián Otero and Gautam Rao

35290: What Investment Data Implies about the AI Transition

Jessica Wachter and Jonathan Wachter

35289: What do news readers want?

Gregory J. Martin, Shoshana Vasserman and Cameron Pfiffer

35288: Water Works: Causes and Consequences of Safe Drinking Water in America

David A. Keiser, Bhashkar Mazumder, David Molitor and Joseph Shapiro

35287: The U.S. Civil War's Impact on Women's Work and Political Participation

Madison K. Arnsbarger, Andreas Ferrara and Paige Montrose

35286: Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations: New Evidence from the Past Seven Decades

David Thesmar and Emil Verner

35285: Does the Import Invasion Explain the Mysterious Disappearance of Productivity Growth in U.S. Manufacturing?

Robert Gordon and Kenneth Ryu

35284: Optimal Long-Term Care Provision and Insurance with Heterogeneous Preferences and Risks

Nicholas-James Clavet, Pierre-Carl Michaud and Julien Navaux

35283: AI for Structural Estimation

Victor Duarte and Julia Fonseca

35282: Insurer Risk and Public Risk-Sharing: Quantifying the Value of Reinsurance

Paul H.S. Kim and Anran Li

35281: College Affirmative Action and Students' Outcomes: A Matter of the Dose

Yi Chen, Chao Fu, Hongbin Li, Teng Li and Siyan Tang

35280: Medicare Home Health Fraud: How Much, Where, and Who?

Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Yunan Ji, Neale Mahoney and Gideon Moore

35279: Non-User Externalities

Leonardo Bursztyn, Jan Fasnacht, Benjamin R. Handel, Rafael Jiménez-Durán, Aaron Leonard, Filip Milojević, Christopher Roth and Cass Sunstein

35278: An Ethical Pollution Tax

Garth Heutel

35277: Deadly Stigma

Manasvini Singh

35276: The AGI Race and Existential Risk

Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, Wioletta Dziuda and Mattias Polborn

35275: Writing Code vs. Shipping Code: Productivity Effects Across Generations of AI Coding Tools

Mert Demirer, Leon Musolff and Liyuan Yang

35274: Factor Bias and Heterogeneous Output Quality in Multiproduct Production

Yi Lee, Shengyu Li and Mark Roberts

35273: The Growth and Performance of Artificial Intelligence in Asset Management

Shuang Chen, Clemens Sialm and David X. Xu

35272: Geopolitical Fragmentation, Sovereign Debt, and Dollar Dominance

Felipe Benguria, Eugenio I. Rojas and Felipe Saffie

35271: Beyond Exposure: Predicting AI Adoption Based on Comparative Advantage

Ilse Lindenlaub, Ryungha Oh, Maria Alejandra Rodriguez and Laura Veldkamp

35270: Dust in the Wind: The Health Costs of Great Salt Lake Desiccation

Lena Harris, Eric Edwards and Danae Hernandez-Cortes

35269: Frontier Knowledge in College and Student Success

Barbara Biasi and Song Ma

35268: An Unfunded Mandate? Medicaid Continuous Coverage Requirements and State Fiscal Burdens During COVID-19

Jeffrey Clemens and Anwita Mahajan

35267: Persistent Effects of Early Academic Rank on Cognitive and Noncognitive Outcomes

Eunsik Chang, María Padilla-Romo and Cecilia Peluffo

35266: The Missing Value of Data

Ankit Bhutani, Guillermo Ordonez and Laura Veldkamp

35265: Off the Labor Supply Curve: The Zero Employer Size Wage Effect Within Large Firms

André Diegmann, Steffen Müller and Benjamin Schoefer

35264: Where There’s Smoke: Stochastic Caregiving Shocks and Mothers’ Labor Market Outcomes

Joshua Graff Zivin and Seunghoon Lee

35263: How Efficient was the Affordable Care Act at Reducing Uninsured Rates?

Anuj Gangopadhyaya and Robert Kaestner

35262: How Much and How Fast Do Investors Respond to Equity Premium Changes? Evidence from Wealth Taxation

Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso and Marius A. K. Ring

35261: Startups in Africa

Emanuele Colonnelli, Marcio Cruz, Mariana Pereira-López, Tommaso Porzio and Chun Zhao

35260: The Risk-free Rate and the Risk-adjusted Growth Rate

Stavros Panageas

35259: A Bayesian Critic for Frequentist Procedures

Isaiah Andrews, Simon C. Essig Aberg and Jesse Shapiro

35258: Towards a Methodology for Measuring Rental Property Ownership in the United States

Stephanie Kestelman, Rebecca Diamond, John Humphries, Kate Pennington, Winnie van Dijk and John L. Voorheis

35257: The Federal Government's Discretionary Spending

Karen Dynan, Douglas Elmendorf and Theresa Gullo

35256: Housing Capital and Intergenerational Mobility in the United States

Ariel Binder, Max Risch and John L. Voorheis

35255: Deep-Tech Innovation: A Multi-Method Study toward a Conceptual Framework and Research Agenda

Johann Kortsch, Stefan Raff-Heinen, David Bendig, Martin Murmann, Colin Schulz and Fiona Murray

35254: Defining Innovatisation: The Case of NewSpace and the Changing Space Sector

Benoit Cornet, Marc-André Chavy-Macdonald and Dominique Foray

35253: The Sisyphean Pursuit of Evidence for Poverty Traps

Dean Karlan, Amol Singh Raswan and Christopher Udry

35252: Distribution Costs

Cian Ruane and Alessandra Peter

35251: The Word Is Not Enough: Testing the Effects of Information Treatments on Perceived Corruption in Ukraine

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Ilona Sologoub and Yuriy Fedyk

35250: Nonresponse Imputations and Related Measurement Issues in the CPI for Shelter

Lara Loewenstein, Hugh G. Montag and Randal Verbrugge

35249: The Price of Protection: Tariff Incidence and Import Collapse under the Infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff

Kris James Mitchener and Mathieu Pedemonte

35248: Electoral Incentives and Government Transparency: Evidence from Freedom of Information Requests

Raymond Fisman, Aron Malatinszky and Eyub Yegen

35247: Scaling Point-in-Time Language Models

Bryan T. Kelly, Semyon Malamud, Johannes Schwab and Teng Andrea Xu

35246: Complex Modern Portfolio Theory

Oliver Hellum, Theis I. Jensen, Bryan T. Kelly and Semyon Malamud

35245: How Much Has Shale Gas Saved U.S. Consumers?

Lucas Davis

35244: Will The University Endowment Tax Slow Scientific Progress? Evidence from Elite Economics PhD Programs

Joshua Angrist, Marc Diederichs and Glenn Ellison

35243: A Tale of Two Market Returns: The Broad Market Factor and The Idiosyncratic Financial Factor

Sung Je Byun, Johnathan Loudis and Lawrence Schmidt

35242: Comparative Advantage and Openness under Global Fragmentation: Lessons from the Past 65 Years

Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito and Jamel Saadaoui

35241: From People’s War to People’s Rule: Rebel Governance and the Foundations of Inclusive Democracy

Bhishma Bhusal, Michael Callen, Rohini Pande, Soledad A. Prillaman, Deepak Singhania and Apurva Subedi

35240: Preference for Explainable AI

Alex Chan

35239: The Heterogeneous Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy

Jorge Abad, Saki Bigio, Salomon Garcia-Villegas, Joël Marbet and Galo Nuño Barrau

35238: The Human Capital Production Function: New Estimates and Implications for Labor Supply and Taxes

Han Gao, Michael Keane, Kaja Kierulf and Alan Woodland

35237: Unlocking Mortgage Lock-In: Equilibrium Effects in a Spatial Housing Ladder Model

Julia Fonseca, Lu Liu and Pierre Mabille

35236: Firm-Worker Matches: Experience or Inspection Goods?

Victoria Gregory, Guido Menzio and Giovanni M. Topa

35235: Cheapflation Cycles

Kunal Sangani

35234: Attorney Value-Added and Racial Disparities in the Criminal Justice System

Maya Mikdash, Mark Hoekstra and Suhyeon Oh

35233: The Educational Impacts of School Phone Bans: Evidence from Brazil

Guilherme Lichand, Luca Moreno-Louzada, Thiago da Costa and Matthew Gentzkow

35232: Designing More Informative Tests: Separating Execution from Recognition

Andrew Caplin and Leo Zhu

35231: Has the United States Bent the Health Care Cost Curve?

David Cutler and Lev R. Klarnet

35230: The (Lack of) Efficacy of Social Belonging and Growth Mindset Interventions Among College Students

Abid N. Alam, Philip Oreopoulos and Uros Petronijevic

35229: The Limits of Targeted Hiring Subsidies: Evidence from the Work Opportunity Tax Credit

Manisha Jain, Corina Mommaerts and Jeffrey Weaver

35228: Industrial Concentration, Property Values, and Municipal Bond Spreads

Kenneth Ahern