NBER Working Papers

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35532: The Confucian Fertility Paradox: Education Competition and Ultra-Low Fertility in East Asia

Hanming Fang and Chang Liu

35531: Elite Capture, Meritocracy and Social Stability: Evidence from the Chinese Imperial Examinations

Jingjing Chen, Jianlei Han, Shing-Yi Wang and Yongxiang Wang

35530: A Demand-Side Alternative to Renewable Curtailment: Natural Field Experimental Evidence from Two Countries

Daniel Lopez Garcia, Robert Metcalfe, Andrew R. Schein and Yixin Sun

35529: Temperature Fluctuations and Economic Conditions: Evidence from Weekly U.S. Data

Kimberly Berg, Chadwick Curtis and Nelson Mark

35528: Beliefs That Predict Returns and Beliefs That Attract Flows: Policy Insights and Sentiment Catering in Mutual Funds

Zhenyu Gao, Wei Xiong and Jian Yuan

35527: From Field to Firm: College Sports and Early-Stage Career Choice

Paul Gompers, George Hu, Will Levinson and Sachin Srivastava

35526: Relating Cognitive Skills and Personality Traits to Economic Preferences: Decision-Making under Cognitive Shocks and Guessing

Cesar Chavez, Shuaizhang Feng, James Heckman and Zhe Yang

35525: Evidence of How Electronic Reporting and Automated Auditing Affects Regulatory Compliance and Environmental Performance

Wayne Gray, Ron Shadbegian and Ann Wolverton

35524: The Welfare Effects of Conditioning the Potential Duration of UI Benefits on Prior Work History

Leonard Goff and Simon Quach

35523: Immigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD Countries

Gaetano Basso, Mitali R. Mathur and Giovanni Peri

35522: Spillover Effects in Complementary Markets: A Study of the Indian Cell Phone and Wireless Service Markets

Chirantan Chatterjee, Ying Fan and Debi Prasad Mohapatra

35521: Profits and Social Impacts: Complements vs. Tradeoffs for Lenders in Three Countries

Susan Athey, Bruno Fava, Dean Karlan, Adam Osman and Jonathan Zinman

35520: Retail Betting Markets

Scott Baker, Justin Balthrop, Mark J. Johnson, Jason Kotter and Kevin Pisciotta

35519: Counterproductive Sustainable Investing: The Impact Elasticity of Brown and Green Firms

Samuel M. Hartzmark and Kelly Shue

35518: Equity as Tribute: The Market for Passive State Equity

Joshua Gans

35517: The Effects of U.S. Public R&D on Global Growth

Gustavo De Souza, Andrew Fieldhouse, Karel Mertens, Ishan B. Nath and Valerie Ramey

35516: The Price and Distributional Impact of Flood Risk Disclosure: Evidence from US Housing Platforms

Stephen B. Billings, Sophie Calder-Wang and Weiling Liu

35515: Beyond Price: Rights Trading in Strategic Factor Markets

Anparasan Mahalingam and Matthew Higgins

35514: Investing in Mothers? The Long-Run Impact of a Universal Child Care Program on Maternal Work and Income

Michael Baker, Jonathan Gruber and Kevin Milligan

35513: Industry Distress Anomaly

Hui Chen, Winston Dou, Hongye Guo and Yan Ji

35512: The Environmental Costs of Sanctions: Flaring and Venting in Venezuela

Michele Fioretti, Kavanaugh FitzPatrick and Alessandro Iaria

35511: Information and Macroeconomic Expectations: Global Evidence

Francesco D’Acunto and Michael Weber

35510: Who is Afraid of Eurobonds?

Francesco Bianchi, Qingyuan Fang, Leonardo Melosi and Anna Rogantini Picco

35509: Trading Off Openness: Economic Information and Immigration Policy Preferences

Cristina Cattaneo, Daniela Grieco, Nicola Lacetera and Mario Macis

35508: Self-Fulfilling Credit Scores

Victor Duarte and Julia Fonseca

35507: Global Pension Asset Allocations and Debt Markets

Ding Ding, Xiang Fang, Bryan Hardy and Karen Lewis

35506: Economic Models of Identity Formation and Cultural Transmission

Alberto Bisin and Thierry Verdier

35505: Global Financial Transparency and Offshore Wealth Accumulation

Annette Alstadsæter, Niels Johannesen, Ségal Le Guern Herry and Gabriel Zucman

35504: Bank Runs With and Without Bank Failure

Sergio A. Correia, Stephan Luck and Emil Verner

35503: Who Wants to Break Up Big Firms? Harm, Fairness, and the Demand for Antitrust

Ricardo Perez-Truglia and Jeffrey Yusof

35502: Physician Learning and Forgetting: Evidence from the US Military

Trevor Fitzgerald, Atul Gupta and Stephen D. Schwab

35501: Human Capital in Venture Capital: Evidence From 100,000 Venture Capitalists

Blake Jackson and Ilya Strebulaev

35500: Volatility Disagreement in the Options Market

Turan G. Bali, Bryan T. Kelly and Mathis Mörke

35499: Spreading Out Across Expanding Idea Space

Ina Ganguli, Jeffrey Lin, Vitaly Meursault and Nicholas Reynolds

35498: Optimal Currency Strategies Under Deviations From Interest Parity

Luis Viceira and Sally Shen

35497: Exorbitant Privilege of the Periodic Table? Geoeconomics, Endogenous Centrality and Strategic Minerals for the Green Transition

Josh Kirk, Evgenia Passari and Helene Rey

35496: Supply Chain Risk, Trade and Economic Fragility

Juanma Castro-Vincenzi, Adry Gracio, Gaurav Khanna and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

35495: Human Enhancement Technologies: A Survey Experiment on Private Demand and Governance Preferences

Giovanni Immordino, Mario Macis, Immacolata Marino and Fabrizio Panebianco

35494: The Price of Political Ties: Reputational Risk and the Strategic Divestment of Corporate PACs

Eric A. Baldwin, Takuma Iwasaki, John Donohue and Charlie Grabois

35493: Immigrants' Legal Status and Firms: Evidence from the 2007 EU Enlargement

Vittoria Dicandia and Silvia Vannutelli

35492: No-Poach Agreements

Axel Gottfries and Gregor Jarosch

35491: Retreating from Science: The Long-Run Effects of the 1970s U.S. Military Disinvestment from University Research

Daniel Gross, Bhaven Sampat and Hansen Zhang

35490: Training AI for When Humans Will Use It

Kevin Bryan and Joshua Gans

35489: Diagnostic Thresholds, Written Consent Requirements, and the Utilization of Scarce Organs

Hannah Bae and Jeffrey Clemens

35488: Ambiguity vs. Risk in Investment Decisions: A Continuous Decomposition

Geoffrey Heal and Marcella Lucchetta

35487: Structural Estimation with Unstructured Data

Sara Casella, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Stephen Hansen, Ryohei Oishi and Minchul Shin

35486: Learning and the Efficiency of Expert Referrals

Ian McCarthy and Seth Richards-Shubik

35485: Critical Peak Rewards: Evidence from a Nationwide Demand Response Program

Louise Bernard, Robert Metcalfe and Andrew Schein

35484: Policy Thresholds as Growth Barriers: Theory and Evidence from a Payroll Tax Notch

Sami Jysmä, Youssef Benzarti and Jarkko Harju

35483: Sharpening Economic Interpretation with HARS

Dawis Kim and Tao Zha

35482: Life After Divorce: Effects of Joint Custody on Parents and Children

Stella Canessa, Gordon Dahl, Anna Hasselqvist, Costas Meghir, Susan Niknami, Mårten Palme, Helmut Rainer, Olof Rosenqvist and Pengpeng Xiao

35481: Inference with AI-Generated Covariates

Junting Duan and Markus Pelger

35480: Estimating Trends In Mental Distress Using Survey Data

Christopher Ruhm

35479: Firm Exit and Financial Frictions

Gideon Bornstein and Laura Castillo-Martinez

35478: Better Together? The Impact of Cash Transfers and Couples' Financial Planning on Household Dynamics and Economic Outcomes

Sarika Gupta, Jessica Leight, Daniel W. Maggio and Simone Schaner

35477: In Sickness and in Health: Retirement Responses to Spousal Health Shocks

Hyeran Chung, Haena Lee and Sita Slavov

35476: Oligopsony and Collective Bargaining

Tirza J. Angerhofer, Allan Collard-Wexler and Matthew Weinberg

35475: The Labor Market Impacts of GLP-1s

N. Meltem Daysal, Camille JH. Fredrickson, Ida L. Kristiansen, Mircea Trandafir and Jonathan Zhang

35474: Monopsony and Backloaded Compensation: Theory and Evidence from Public Accountants

Michael Rubens and Bernardo S. Silveira

35473: A Large-Scale Evaluation of Merger Simulations

Vivek Bhattacharya, Gastón Illanes, Avner Kreps, José D. Salas and David Stillerman

35472: Estimating the Economic Effects of Federally Funded R&D

Sheila Campbell, Jaeger Nelson, Eli A. Schrag, Heidi Williams and Caleb K. Wroblewski

35471: Walking with Feet Tied to the Past: Childhood Exposure to the 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Later-Life Male Mortality

Hamid Noghanibehambari and Jason Fletcher

35470: The U.S. Mortality Crisis as a Preston Curve Reversal

Ritikaa Khanna, Rourke O'Brien, Andrew C. Stokes, Atheendar Venkataramani and Elizabeth Wrigley-Field

35469: Severe Cognitive Impairments and Long-term Care in Germany

Elsa Perdrix, Axel H. Börsch-Supan, Johannes Geyer, Peter Haan and Sami Louahlia

35468: Supply and Demand with Market Heterogeneity

Ingvil Gaarder, Lancelot Henry de Frahan, Magne Mogstad, Alexander Torgovitsky and Oscar Volpe

35467: Women in the Platform Economy: Descriptive Evidence from Drivers in India and Indonesia

Achyuta Adhvaryu, Levina Adiputri, Valentina Brailovskaya, Priyanka Dua, Jenny Susan John, Pratibha Joshi, Terry Muthahhari, Rivandra Royono and Jack Thunde

35466: What Do Asset Prices in April 2025 Say About Demand for the Dollar?

Rohan Kekre and Moritz Lenel

35465: Social Insurance with Imperfect Eligibility Screening: Theory and Evidence from Pandemic UI

Adam Isen, Elira Kuka and Bryan Stuart

35464: Long Term Care and Cognitive Impairment in Spain

Joan Costa-i-Font, Sergi Jimenez-Martin, Juan Oliva, Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto and Analía Viola

35463: Mind the KF* Gap: EME Vulnerabilities to Global Shocks

John Burger, Francis E. Warnock and Veronica Cacdac Warnock

35462: Psychosocial Health and Well-Being After A Mortality Shock

Elizabeth Frankenberg, Cecep Sumantri and Duncan Thomas

35461: Should We Tax Trade? A Pigouvian Perspective

Arnaud Costinot and Iván Werning

35460: Multi-Project Collaborations

Charles Angelucci and Roi Orzach

35459: From Stocks to Flows: Debt Service and Fiscal Sustainability

Barry Eichengreen, Maxime Menuet and Gregory Donnat

35458: Banking on a Corporate Rebrand

Kris James Mitchener, Matthew Jaremski and Kilian Rieder

35457: Job Ads as Signals: Evidence from a Priced Amenity and Worker Beliefs

Pawel Adrjan, Mária Balgova, Simon Jäger, Jonas Jessen and Jason Sockin

35456: Long-Run Intergenerational Effects of Social Security

Daniel Fetter, Lee Lockwood and Paul Mohnen

35455: Zoning: Externalities or Misallocation?

Yu-Hsin Ho, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Wen-Tai Hsu and Yu-Jhih Luo

35454: Competition and Anomalies Redux: Evidence from U.S. Auto Dealers

David Huffman, Lamar Pierce, Alex Rees-Jones and Germán Reyes

35453: Financial Sanctions and the Global Payments Network

Gregor Matvos and Brent Neiman

35452: Economic Well-Being of Latino Households in the U.S.: a Scoping Review of Research on Poverty, the Safety Net, and Family Supports

Matthew Maury, Agustina Laurito, Lisa A. Gennetian and Kevin Kamto Sonke

35451: AI Premium

Nicola Borri, Aleh Tsyvinski and Yukun Liu

35450: Bundling Trades In Over-The-Counter Markets

Jason Allen and Milena Wittwer

35449: Ports, Technology and Inter-City Trade: The Economics and Geopolitics of Evolving Maritime Transport Networks

Réka Juhász, David Nagy, Claudia Steinwender and Woan Foong Wong

35448: The International RBC Model Finally Works!

Sushant Acharya, Edouard Challe and Louphou Coulibaly

35447: Intergovernmental Grants to School Districts and Educational Outcomes During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Jeffrey Clemens, Philip G. Hoxie and Stan Veuger

35446: The Uneven Impact of Industrial Zones on Formal Job Creation in Vietnam

Brian McCaig, Margaret McMillan, Marina Mavungu Ngoma and Anh T. Pham

35445: Organizational Incentives and the Returns to Technology Adoption

Achyuta Adhvaryu, Smit Gade, Piyush Gandhi, Teresa Molina and Anant Nyshadham

35444: Risk Design: AI and Prediction Beyond Screening in Insurance Markets

Alex Chan

35443: Unruly by Design: Fee Volatility and Strategic Attacks in Bitcoin Mining

Fabian Schär, Dario Thürkauf and David Yermack

35442: Cognitive versus Physical Impairment and the Use and Cost of Long-Term Care in Japan

Rong Fu, Sizhe Liu, Toshiaki Iizuka and Haruko Noguchi

35441: Cognitive Aging and Long-Term Care in Italy

Agar Brugiavini, Ludovico Carrino, Gloria Moroni, Rinaldo Naci and Giacomo Pasini

35440: Choice Between Public and Private Healthcare Systems: Evidence from Veterans

Marika Cabral, David C. Chan and Seth Neller

35439: Do Monetary Policy Rates Reach Borrowers? Evidence from Household and Firm Loans in 96 Countries

Santosh Anagol and Shing-Yi Wang

35438: Measuring the Value of Disability Insurance from Take-Up Decisions

Andreas Haller and Stefan Staubli

35437: How Might Fiscal Policy Respond to the Rise of Artificial Intelligence?

Karen Dynan, Douglas Elmendorf and Louise Sheiner

35436: The Role of Information Frictions in Study Habit Choice and Academic Performance

Agustina Affonso, Esteban Aucejo, Stephanie El Khoury and Tomás Larroucau

35435: Forecasting the Covid Surge in Inflation

Mark Watson

35434: Degrees of Mobility: Shifting Low-Income Students to Higher Quality Colleges

Elizabeth Burland, Nora Delaney, Susan Dynarski, Katherine B. Leu, Libassi Cj, Katherine Michelmore, Stephanie Owen, Mary A. Quiroga and Elizabeth Salinas

35433: The Labor Market Effects of Expanding Overtime Coverage

Simon Quach