NBER Working Papers

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35063: Beyond Demo Day: Sorting and Value Added in Startup Accelerators

Youn Baek and Deepak Hegde

35062: Exploring Trends in Severe Maternal Morbidity in the U.S

Pinka Chatterji, Fangning Li and Sara Markowitz

35061: Human Capital Markets

Jishnu Das and Cauê Dobbin

35060: The Emergence of the Poverty–Mental Health Gradient and the Great Pakistan Earthquake of 2005

Tahir Andrabi, Benjamin Daniels and Jishnu Das

35059: When Policy Shapes Perception: The 2021 Child Tax Credit and Consumer Sentiment

Jacob Bastian and Melody Harvey

35058: Wellbeing, Youth and Survey Mode: Comparisons across 23 Countries Using Three International Datasets

David Blanchflower and Alex Bryson

35057: Credit Crunches and the Great Stagflation

Itamar Drechsler, Alexi Savov and Philipp Schnabl

35056: The Chinese Current Account Imbalances: Puzzles, Patterns, and Possible Causes

Chang Ma and Shang-Jin Wei

35055: The Impacts of Medicaid's Managed Long-Term Services and Supports on Health Outcomes in Medicare

Ajin Lee, Maya Rossin-Slater, Becky Staiger and Amanda Su

35054: A Tale of Two Countries – The Real Estate Crises in 1990s Japan and Contemporary China

Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang

35053: Trade in AI-Related Products

Michael Waugh

35052: The Economic Value of Eliminating Cancer

Tomas Philipson, Deyu Zhang, Shumaila Abbasi and Noah Fisher

35051: Tracking the Credibility Revolution across Fields

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

35050: A Model of Leveraged Bubbles

Nina Biljanovska, Jordi Galí, Lucyna Gornicka and Alexandros P. Vardoulakis

35049: Disagreement of Disagreement

Christian L. Goulding, Campbell Harvey and Hrvoje Kurtović

35048: Consumer Tobacco Product Choices in China: The Impact of a Ban on Flavored E-cigarettes

Hua Wang, Yuhan Deng, Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios and Sen Zeng

35047: Identification and Estimation of Labor Supply Elasticities from Kinked Budget Sets

Deniz Dutz, Morten Håvarstein, Magne Mogstad and Alexander Torgovitsky

35046: Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI

Ezra Karger, Otto Kuusela, Jason Abaluck, Kevin Bryan, Basil Halperin, Todd R. Jones, Connacher Murphy, Philip Trammell, Matt Reynolds, Dan Mayland, Ria Viswanathan, Ananaya Mittal, Rebecca Ceppas de Castro, Joshua Rosenberg and Philip Tetlock

35045: Bad News and Policy Views: Expectations, Disappointment, and Opposition to Affirmative Action

Louis-Pierre Lepage, Heather Sarsons and Michael Thaler

35044: Predicted Incrementality by Experimentation (PIE) for Ad Measurement

Brett R. Gordon, Robert Moakler and Florian Zettelmeyer

35043: Profit Regulation and Strategic Transfer Pricing by Vertically Integrated Firms: Evidence from Health Care

Pragya Kakani, Eric Yde, Genevieve Kanter, Richard G. Frank and Amelia M. Bond

35041: Capital in the Capitol: Congressional Trades Resemble Uninformed Retail Trading

Haotian Chen and Bruce Sacerdote

35040: Investment-based Costs of Equity

Yicheng Liu, Chen Xue and Lu Zhang

35039: Measuring Organizational Capital

Wei Cai, Andrea Prat and Jiehang Yu

35038: Immigrants at the Margin: Labor Market Effects of the Minimum Wage

Mark Borgschulte, Heepyung Cho and Darren Lubotsky

35037: Amortized Inference for Correlated Discrete Choice Models via Equivariant Neural Networks

Easton K. Huch and Michael Keane

35036: How AI Aggregation Affects Knowledge

Daron Acemoglu, Tianyi Lin, Asuman Ozdaglar and James Siderius

35035: Liquidity-Driven Growth Cycles in Small Open Economies

Jess Benhabib, Feng Dong, Pengfei Wang and Zhenyang Xu

35034: Thinking versus Doing: Cognitive Capacity, Decision Making and Medical Diagnosis

Benjamin R. Handel, Louis-Jonas Heizlsperger, Jonas Knecht, Jonathan Kolstad, Ulrike Malmendier and Filip Matejka

35033: Real Effects of Nominal Interest Rates

Joshua K. Hausman, John Leahy, John Mondragon and Johannes Wieland

35032: Skill Formation, Child Labor, and the Schooling Consequences of the World War I Agricultural Boom

Taylor Jaworski, Carl Kitchens and Luke P. Rodgers

35031: Adversarial Selection

Alma Cohen, Alon Klement, Zvika Neeman and Eilon Solan

35030: A Gender Quota for Top Executives: Diversity without Disruption

David A. Matsa and Amalia Miller

35029: Climate Change, Deforestation, and the Expansion of the Global Agricultural Frontier

Allan Hsiao, Jacob Moscona, Benjamin Olken and Karthik Sastry

35028: Which U.S. States Suffered a Greater Great Depression and Why?

Dong Cheng, Mario Crucini and Hanjo Terry. Kim

35027: Subjective Earnings and Employment Dynamics

Manuel Arellano, Orazio Attanasio, Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo

35026: How Responsive are Durables Expenditures to Transitory Income Shocks?

Christoph Boehm and Changseok Ma

35025: Pharmaceutical Advertising in Dynamic Equilibrium

Pierre Dubois and Ariel Pakes

35024: Learning How To Borrow in a Fintech World: Consumer Behavior When Search Costs Are (Near) Zero

Alex Gunsberg and Camelia Kuhnen

35023: Tariffs, Global Value Chains, and the Incidence of Protection: Evidence from US Automobiles

Luke Heeney, Christopher Knittel and Jasdeep Mandia

35022: AI Patents in the United States and China: Measurement, Organization, and Knowledge Flows

Hanming Fang, Xian Gu, Hanyin Yan and Wu Zhu

35021: The Empathy Channel in Fertility

Sebastian Galiani and Raul A. Sosa

35020: Why Do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans?

Serdar Birinci, Loukas Karabarbounis and Kurt See

35019: Can Personal Access to Medical Expertise Overcome Vaccine Hesitancy?

D. Mark Anderson, Ron Diris, Raymond Montizaan and Daniel Rees

35018: Trade, Labor Market Concentration, and Wages

Mayara Felix

35017: Real Effects of Academic Research Revisited

Adam Jaffe, Laura Shupp and Valentina Tartari

35016: In the Fed’s Mind

Ali Kakhbod, Amir Kermani and Bernardo L.R. Maciel

35015: Market Power in Mortgage Pricing: the Role of Referral Lending

Dayin Zhang, Panle Barwick, Lu Han and Jonathan Kroah

35014: The Economics of Postdoctoral Researcher Positions

Donna Ginther and Joshua Rosenbloom

35013: Dynamic Adjustment to Trade Shocks

Junyuan Chen, Carlos André Góes, Marc-Andreas Muendler and Fabian Trottner

35012: Planning under Diagnostic Uncertainty: Question-Driven Learning in the Age of AI

Andrew Caplin

35011: Knowledge Spillovers and Local Outcomes: An Existence Proof from the Establishment of the National Labs

Susan Helper, Resem Makan and Daniel W. Shoag

35010: Adaptive Enforcement with AI-Augmented Monitoring

Ginger Zhe Jin, D. Daniel Sokol and Liad Wagman

35009: The Effects of Fiscal News on Household Expectations and Spending: New Causal Evidence

Myungkyu Shim, Kwang Hwan Kim, Myunghwan Andrew Lee, Sangyup Choi, Siye Bae, Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

35008: The Cold War and the U.S. Labor Market

Ilyana Kuziemko, Donato A. Onorato and Suresh Naidu

35007: The Hidden Cost of Stock Market Concentration: When Funds Hit Regulatory Limits

Lubos Pastor, Taisiya Sikorskaya and Jinrui Wang

35006: Cash Transfers and Productive Inclusion: Evidence from Bolsa Familia

Michael Best, Felipe Lobel and Valdemar Pinho Neto

35005: Early-Life Sugar Restrictions Reduce Genetic Disparities in Adult Adiposity

Tadeja Gracner, Claire Boone, Patrick Turley and Paul Gertler

35004: Using Global Shocks to Understand the Level and Structure of Executive Compensation

David Hummels, Jakob Munch and Huilin Zhang

35003: Salience and (Non-)Buyer's Remorse: Optimal Nonlinear Pricing with Cognitively Constrained Consumers

Aaron L. Bodoh-Creed, Brent R. Hickman, John List, Ian Muir and Gregory K. Sun

35002: Networked Information and Industrial Output: Evidence from Chile’s 1972 Truckers’ Strike

Sebastian Edwards

35001: Screening with Cash Deposits in Digital Credit Markets

Paul Gertler, Brett Green and Catherine Wolfram

35000: Decoupling Dollar and Treasury Privilege

Wenxin Du, Ritt Keerati and Jesse Schreger

34999: The Impact of Virtual Instruction on the Transition to College: Evidence from COVID-19

Nolan Pope and Yu Hung Yaow

34998: Special Education Substantially Improves Learning: Evidence from Three States

Stephanie G. Coffey, Joshua Goodman, Amy Schwartz, Leanna Stiefel, Marcus A. Winters and Yunee H. Yoon

34997: Paid Caregiving Leave Policies and an Update on Paid Parental Leave

Priyanka Anand, Tamar Matiashvili and Maya Rossin-Slater

34996: Supporting Student Engagement During Remote Learning: Three Randomized Controlled Trials in Chicago Public Schools

Monica P. Bhatt, Jonathan Guryan, Fatemeh Momeni, Philip Oreopoulos and Eleni Packis

34995: Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the U.S

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, David Deming, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln and Jonas Jessen

34994: Steering Technological Progress

Anton Korinek and Joseph Stiglitz

34993: Bank Fees and Household Financial Well-Being

Michaela Pagel, Sharada Sridhar and Emily Williams

34992: Preferences for Warning Signal Quality: Experimental Evidence

Alexander Ugarov, Arya Gaduh and Peter McGee

34991: Private Credit, Balance Sheets and Financial Stability

Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski and Amit Seru

34990: The Effects of California's $20 Fast Food Minimum Wage on Prices

Jeffrey Clemens, Olivia Edwards, Jonathan Meer and Joshua D. Nguyen

34989: The Precarious Financial Lives of College Students in Sub-Saharan Africa

Natalie Bau, Corinne Low, Simona Simona and Bryce Steinberg

34988: Lender of Last Resort and Local Economic Outcomes

Pawel Janas

34987: Substitution and Income Effects of Labor Income Taxation

Michael Graber, Morten Håvarstein, Magne Mogstad, Ola L. Vestad and Ola L. Vestad

34986: What Makes New Work Different from More Work?

David Autor, Caroline Chin, Anna M. Salomons and Bryan Seegmiller

34985: Contract Enforcement and Young Firm Capital Structure: A Global Perspective

Gonzalo E. Basante Pereira and Ina Simonovska

34984: Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives

Salome Baslandze, Zachary Edwards, John Graham, Ty McClure, Brent Meyer, Michael Sparks, Sonya R. Waddell and Daniel Weitz

34983: An 'Austrian' Model of International Specialization

Pol Antras and Adrian Kulesza

34982: Household Migration and Collateral Constraint: Cash-based Housing Resettlement in China

Zhiguo He, Zehao Liu, Xinle Pang, Yang Su and Kunru Zou

34981: The Long-Term Decline of the U.S. Job Ladder

Niklas Engbom, Aniket Baksy and Daniele Caratelli

34980: Does Employment Shift Mothers' Voting Behavior and Political Identity?

Jacob Bastian

34979: When Are Decisions Improvable? An Evaluation of Diagnostic Methods

B. Douglas Bernheim, Aldo Lucia, Kirby Nielsen and Charles Sprenger

34978: Climate Fairness and Growth: Allocating the Remaining Carbon Budget

Galina Hale, Michael Halling, Nora Alice. Paulus and Han H. G. Pham

34977: From Free Rider to Innovator: The Rise of China's Drug Development

Panle Barwick, Hongyuan Xia and Tianli Xia

34976: The Rise of the Modern Hospital and Early-Life Health: Evidence from the Hill-Burton Act

Owen Thompson, Jason Fletcher and Karin Wu

34975: Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at a Public University System

Ted Joyce, Mina Afrouzi Khosroshahi, Sarah Truelsch, Kerstin Gentsch and Kyle Du

34974: Financial Conditions Targeting in a Multi-Asset Open Economy

Ricardo Caballero and Alp Simsek

34973: Identifying Uncertainty, Learning about Productivity, and Human Capital Acquisition: A Reassessment of Labor Market Sorting and Firm Monopsony Power

Cristina Gualdani, Elena Pastorino, Aureo de Paula and Sergio Salgado Ibáñez

34972: Reserve Demand Estimation with Minimal Theory

Ricardo Lagos and Gaston Navarro

34971: The max EPS Paradigm for Corporate Finance

Itzhak Ben-David and Alex Chinco

34970: Loaded Chambers: Organized Interests, Public Opinion, and Policy Responsiveness in the American States

Takuma Iwasaki, Eric A. Baldwin, John Donohue and Tai Markman

34969: Household Preferences for Women’s Employment: A Field Experiment in Bangladesh

Yueh-ya Hsu, Reshmaan N. Hussam, Erin M. Kelley and Gregory Lane

34968: The Global Incumbency Advantage

Raphaël Descamps, Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet

34967: Mutual Party Extremism

Ivo Welch

34966: Life Cycle Portfolio Choice with Human Capital and Social Security

Jason Scott, John B. Shoven, Sita Slavov and John G. Watson

34965: Out of the Black Box: Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs via Conditional Probabilities

Hui Chen, Antoine Didisheim and Luciano A. Somoza

34964: Attention (And Money) Is All You Need: Why Universities Are Struggling to Keep AI Talent

Ufuk Akcigit, Craig A. Chikis, Emin Dinlersoz and Nathan Goldschlag

34963: Work from Home and Fertility

Steven Davis, Cevat Giray Aksoy, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Katelyn Cranney, Mathias Dolls and Pablo Zárate