NBER Working Papers

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35367: Air Pollution and Early Childhood Outcomes: Evidence from Georgia Childcare Providers

Mahta Ghafarianghadim and Garth Heutel

35366: Misleading Estimates from Nonlinear Models with a Binary Outcome

Brian Curran, Bruce Meyer and Derek Wu

35365: Shaping Major Choice: The Role of High School Counselors

Kennedy Johnston, Jonathan Meer and Danila Serra

35364: Identity Uncertainty

Anujit Chakraborty, Arkadev Ghosh, Matt Lowe and Gareth Nellis

35363: Paying for Quality vs. Paying for Rank: When Purifying a Metric Backfires

Joshua Gans and Scott Kominers

35362: What Happens to Contractors After States Ban Affirmative Action?

Benjamin Rosa

35361: On the Origins of the Multinational Premium

Jose Fillat and Stefania Garetto

35360: How Climate Shocks Produce Armed Rebellion: The 1970 Bhola Cyclone and the Birth of Bangladesh

Sultan Mehmood and Ahmed Mobarak

35359: Transportation Infrastructure and Urban and Regional Development

Gilles Duranton and Matthew Turner

35358: The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Railroads on Mexico-US Migration

David Escamilla-Guerrero and Giovanni Peri

35357: Information Provision and Demand-Side Barriers to Healthcare Innovation: Experimental Evidence on Shared Medical Appointments in Menopause Care

Soledad Giardili, Monika Heller, Sanjay Jain, Amalia Miller and Kamalini Ramdas

35356: Trading Frictions in Dynamic Cap-and-Trade Markets

Nicola Borri, Yukun Liu, Aleh Tsyvinski and Xi Wu

35355: Panel Attrition, Data Imputation and Age Patterns in Subjective Ill-being

David Blanchflower, Alex Bryson and Alan J. Cui

35354: The Perceived Inflation Wedge

Neville Francis

35353: Task-Specific Technical Change and Comparative Advantage

Lukas Althoff and Hugo Reichardt

35352: Insurance with Multiple Actors

Jason Abaluck, Oren Sarig and Jintaek Song

35351: An Informational Rationale for Viewpoint Neutrality in Education

Georgy Egorov and Konstantin Sonin

35350: How Serious Are Experimenter Demand Effects? Evidence and Mitigation Strategies

Jonathan de Quidt, Lise Vesterlund and Alistair Wilson

35349: Planning Capital and Discovery-Based Learning-by-Doing: Investment as Staged Discovery in the Hyperscale Era

Andrew Caplin

35348: The Informed Insider: A Leading Measure of Quality

Wei Cai, Dennis Campbell, Yaxuan Chen, Yufei Chen and Andrea Prat

35347: AI Diffusion Gaps: Unequal Integration of AI Across K-12 Schools

Christopher Campos and John Singleton

35346: Elderly Health and Longevity in the US: Evidence and Implications

Liran Einav and Amy Finkelstein

35345: Beta for Alpha: Neural Engagement in Financial Trading

Liang Chen, Tse-Chun Lin, Fei Wu, Xingjian Zheng and Eric Zou

35344: AI and the Collapse of the www

Alex Chan

35343: The Targets of Geoeconomic Coercion

Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger

35342: Measuring Financial Literacy with the Big Three: Why It Works

Tim Kaiser, Annamaria Lusardi, Olivia Mitchell and Luis Oberrauch

35341: Lack of Trust and Fiscal Dominance: Evidence from a Firm Survey Experiment

Francesco Bianchi, Renato Faccini, Leonardo Melosi and Nils Wehrhöfer

35340: Demographic Divergence: The Legacy of the Opioid Epidemic

Carolina Arteaga, Victoria Barone and Stephen Claassen

35339: Blindly Discriminating: The GI Bill and Racial Inequality

Lukas Althoff and Christiane Szerman

35338: Don’t Give Up on Lab Experiments: Why the Field Still Needs the Lab

John List

35337: US Monetary Spillovers, Foreign Exchange, and Gold Reserves at Times of Geopolitical Fragmentation

Joshua Aizenman, Jamel Saadaoui, Gazi Uddin and Naoki Yago

35336: Automation and Repression

Daron Acemoglu, A. Arda Gitmez and Mehdi Shadmehr

35335: Monopsony Power and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

Bence Bardóczy, Gideon Bornstein and Sergio Salgado Ibáñez

35334: From Trade War to Green Transition: Optimal Electric Vehicle Tariffs with Revenue-Funded Subsidies

Panle Barwick, Jack Collison, Pinelopi Goldberg, Shanjun Li and Yucheng Wang

35333: Playing it Safe? The Effect of Abortion Bans on Sexual Behavior

James Flynn, David R. Munro and Caitlin Myers

35332: Economic Assimilation of Women and Families in the Age of Mass Migration

Zachary Ward

35331: The Value of One Office Day a Month

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis, Victoria Marino and Cem Ozguzel

35330: Before the Exodus? Young Scientists and the Future of US Science

Pierre Azoulay, Raffaella Sadun and Daniela Scur

35329: Reconciling Micro Elasticities with the Macro Decline in Labor Supply

Loukas Karabarbounis

35328: Dollar Erosion: Understanding the Loss of Reserve Currency Status

Zhengyang Jiang, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Hanno Lustig and Robert Richmond

35327: 'Nobody Wants to Work Anymore': Lifetime Labor Market Experiences and the Decline of Male LFP in the United States

Remy Levin and Daniela Vidart

35326: A Cohort Perspective on Latin America's Fertility Transition

Regina Calles and Tom Vogl

35325: Dynamic Risk Adjustment in Markets with Persistent Risk and Manipulable Signals: Market Design for Health Insurance

Alex Chan

35324: The Female Sensitivity Hypothesis: Evidence From Experimental Economics

Felipe Araujo, Neeraja Gupta and Lise Vesterlund

35323: How Do Financial and Longevity Literacy Affect Annuity Demand?

Jeffrey Brown

35322: Can Online Activity Be Regulated? Evidence from Adult Websites

Matthew Brown, Emily J. Davis and Devin G. Pope

35321: Optimal Medical Liability for AI

Alex Chan

35320: Data-Driven Automation

Maryam Farboodi, Andrew J. Koh and Anchi Xia

35319: Beliefs and Actions under Government Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Student Loan Forgiveness

Dmitri K. Koustas, Michael Weber and Constantine Yannelis

35318: Sent Away: Displacement, Neighborhoods, and Children’s Outcomes under Slum Clearance Policies

Fernanda Rojas-Ampuero and Felipe Carrera

35317: Air Pollution and Internal Migration in the United States

Michael Keller, Christopher Knittel, Benjamin Krebs and Simon Luechinger

35316: Decomposing Shifts in the Beveridge Curve: Implications for Labor Market Dynamics and Inflation

Katharine Abraham, John Haltiwanger and Lea E. Rendell

35315: The Income Channel to Labor-Market Polarization

Diego Comin, Ana Danieli and Martí Mestieri

35314: Innovation without Borders? The Geography of Technological Diffusion

Ursel Baumann, Zoë B. Cullen, Ester Faia, Annalisa Ferrando, Ricardo Perez-Truglia and Judit Rariga

35313: Intergenerational Mobility in Late Qing Dynasty: Evidence from Northeast China

Kristina Butaeva, Steven Durlauf and Alexander Shapoval

35312: Bayesian Non-Persuasion

Joshua Gans

35311: How Small is Small? Non-linearities in Heterogeneous Agent Models

Javier Bianchi and Greg Kaplan

35310: Is the iPhone Birth Control? Causal Evidence from AT&T’s 2007–2011 Carrier Monopoly

Caitlin Myers and Ezekiel Hooper

35309: But I Like Doing This! Enjoyable Tasks, Contracting, and Automation

Joshua Gans

35308: Do Female Leaders Reduce Corruption? New Evidence from Brazil

Julieta Peveri and Clemence Tricaud

35307: Are carbon tariffs climate policy?

Gregory Casey, Kyle Meng and Ivan Rudik

35306: How Frontline Supervisors Shape Priorities: Evidence from Police Lieutenants

Matthew Gudgeon, Andrew Jordan and Taeho Kim

35305: Wagering the Bread Money: Sports Betting Legalization and Food Sufficiency

Xiaohui Guo, Lizhong Peng and Chad Meyerhoefer

35304: Regional Economic Impacts and Emission Responses under Solar Radiation Modification

Jenny Bjordal, Evelien van Dijk, Henri Cornec, Anthony Smith and Trude Storelvmo

35303: Falling Dominoes? The Impact of the US Exit from Free Trade on the Sustainability of Trade Cooperation

Barthélémy Bonadio, Andrei Levchenko and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

35302: Leveraging Artificial Intelligence and Field Experiments to Explore Novel Features of Parental Speech and Foster Child Development

Julie Pernaudet, John List, Arnoldo Müller-Molina, Majid Ahmadi, Imrul Huda, Ajay Sailopal and Dana Suskind

35301: Do Voters Punish Inflation or Pay Cuts? Inflation and Real Wages in U.S. Elections

Juan Felipe Riaño and Francesco Trebbi

35300: Explaining the Historical Rise and Recent Decline in Social Security Disability Insurance Enrollment

ManasI Deshpande, Maxwell Kellogg, Magne Mogstad and Kuan-Ju Tseng

35299: Characterizing the File Drawer: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis of Parent-Interventions Around the World

Peter Bergman and Nat Chowanajin

35298: Does Regional Variation in Wage Levels Identify the Effects of a National Minimum Wage?

Daniel Haanwinckel

35297: Macroeconomic and Fiscal Consequences of Quantitative Easing

Tobias Adrian, Christopher Erceg, Marcin Kolasa, Jesper Lindé and Pawel Zabczyk

35296: GLP-1 Therapy and the Reshaping of Socioeconomic Gradients in Health

J. Felipe Montano-Campos, Bryan Tysinger, Dana Goldman and Darius Lakdawalla

35295: Predicting Labor Force Types

Rui Castro, Jiyoung Kim, Fabian Lange, Jérôme Larivière and Markus Poschke

35294: Measuring Housing Quality Using Revealed Preference: A Geographic PageRank Approach

Alex Bell, Sophie Calder-Wang and Shusheng Zhong

35293: The Effect of Height on Adolescents' Body Image Perceptions and Behaviors

Monica Deza, Neiva J. Fortes and Maria Zhu

35292: Reducing Gun Violence at Scale

Max Kapustin, Aaron Chalfin, Jeremy Biddle, Brian A. Wade, Natasha Khade, Cristina Layana, Ben Struhl and Anthony A. Braga

35291: Incentives, Evidence, and Reminders for Bureaucrats: Overcoming Barriers to Policy Scale Up

Patrick Agte, Daniel R. Morales, Christopher Neilson, Sebastián Otero and Gautam Rao

35290: What Investment Data Implies about the AI Transition

Jessica Wachter and Jonathan Wachter

35289: What do news readers want?

Gregory J. Martin, Shoshana Vasserman and Cameron Pfiffer

35288: Water Works: Causes and Consequences of Safe Drinking Water in America

David A. Keiser, Bhashkar Mazumder, David Molitor and Joseph Shapiro

35287: The U.S. Civil War's Impact on Women's Work and Political Participation

Madison K. Arnsbarger, Andreas Ferrara and Paige Montrose

35286: Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations: New Evidence from the Past Seven Decades

David Thesmar and Emil Verner

35285: Does the Import Invasion Explain the Mysterious Disappearance of Productivity Growth in U.S. Manufacturing?

Robert Gordon and Kenneth Ryu

35284: Optimal Long-Term Care Provision and Insurance with Heterogeneous Preferences and Risks

Nicholas-James Clavet, Pierre-Carl Michaud and Julien Navaux

35283: AI for Structural Estimation

Victor Duarte and Julia Fonseca

35282: Insurer Risk and Public Risk-Sharing: Quantifying the Value of Reinsurance

Paul H.S. Kim and Anran Li

35281: College Affirmative Action and Students' Outcomes: A Matter of the Dose

Yi Chen, Chao Fu, Hongbin Li, Teng Li and Siyan Tang

35280: Medicare Home Health Fraud: How Much, Where, and Who?

Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Yunan Ji, Neale Mahoney and Gideon Moore

35279: Non-User Externalities

Leonardo Bursztyn, Jan Fasnacht, Benjamin R. Handel, Rafael Jiménez-Durán, Aaron Leonard, Filip Milojević, Christopher Roth and Cass Sunstein

35278: An Ethical Pollution Tax

Garth Heutel

35277: Deadly Stigma

Manasvini Singh

35276: The AGI Race and Existential Risk

Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, Wioletta Dziuda and Mattias Polborn

35275: Writing Code vs. Shipping Code: Productivity Effects Across Generations of AI Coding Tools

Mert Demirer, Leon Musolff and Liyuan Yang

35274: Factor Bias and Heterogeneous Output Quality in Multiproduct Production

Yi Lee, Shengyu Li and Mark Roberts

35273: The Growth and Performance of Artificial Intelligence in Asset Management

Shuang Chen, Clemens Sialm and David X. Xu

35272: Geopolitical Fragmentation, Sovereign Debt, and Dollar Dominance

Felipe Benguria, Eugenio I. Rojas and Felipe Saffie

35271: Beyond Exposure: Predicting AI Adoption Based on Comparative Advantage

Ilse Lindenlaub, Ryungha Oh, Maria Alejandra Rodriguez and Laura Veldkamp

35270: Dust in the Wind: The Health Costs of Great Salt Lake Desiccation

Lena Harris, Eric Edwards and Danae Hernandez-Cortes

35269: Frontier Knowledge in College and Student Success

Barbara Biasi and Song Ma

35268: An Unfunded Mandate? Medicaid Continuous Coverage Requirements and State Fiscal Burdens During COVID-19

Jeffrey Clemens and Anwita Mahajan