Tariff Staggering

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martín Uribe

No 35957, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Using a panel of U.S. imports and customs duties at the HS 6-digit level, we document that in a typical quarter about 20 percent of tariffs rise, 20 percent fall, and 60 percent remain unchanged. Motivated by these facts, we develop a model of staggered tariff setting and embed it in a dynamic open-economy framework. Staggering changes the dynamics of the cross-sectional mean tariff, generating hump-shaped macroeconomic responses to tariff shocks. Staggering also overturns the Razin–Svensson trade- balance neutrality result for permanent tariff increases, because the gradual adjustment of the mean tariff creates an anticipation effect that induces agents to front-load net imports. Inherited tariff dispersion has first-order macroeconomic effects, allowing tariff harmonization to be studied with linear approximation methods. We find that eliminating tariff dispersion while holding the mean tariff unchanged has effects akin to a transitory tariff cut in an economy without staggering.

JEL-codes: E31 E52 F13 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-10
Note: EFG IFM
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