NBER Working Papers

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30611: The Impact of Joint versus Separate Prediction Mode on Forecasting Accuracy

Alex Imas, Minah H. Jung, Silvia Saccardo and Joachim Vosgerau

30610: Parenting Promotes Social Mobility Within and Across Generations

Jorge Luis Garcia and James J. Heckman

30609: The U.S. Postal Savings System and the Collapse of B&Ls During the Great Depression

Sebastian Fleitas, Matthew Jaremski and Steven Sprick Schuster

30608: The Productivity of Professions: Evidence from the Emergency Department

David C. Chan and Yiqun Chen

30607: Artificial Intelligence, the Evolution of the Healthcare Value Chain, and the Future of the Physician

David Dranove and Craig Garthwaite

30606: Should Mothers Work? How Perceptions of the Social Norm Affect Individual Attitudes Toward Work in the U.S

Patricia Cortés, Gizem Kosar, Jessica Pan and Basit Zafar

30605: Epidemiological Expectations

Christopher Carroll and Tao Wang

30604: Why Do Startups Become Unicorns Instead of Going Public?

Daria Davydova, Ruediger Fahlenbrach, Leandro Sanz and René M. Stulz

30603: Mapping the Knowledge Space: Exploiting Unassisted Machine Learning Tools

Florenta Teodoridis, Jino Lu and Jeffrey L. Furman

30602: The Ex-Ante Moral Hazard Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines

Virat Agrawal, Neeraj Sood and Christopher Whaley

30601: A Theory of Fiscal Responsibility and Irresponsibility

Marina Halac and Pierre Yared

30600: Modeling Machine Learning: A Cognitive Economic Approach

Andrew Caplin, Daniel Martin and Philip Marx

30599: Overweight Grandsons and Grandfathers' Starvation Exposure

Dora Costa

30598: Economic Activity Across Space: A Supply and Demand Approach

Treb Allen and Costas Arkolakis

30597: Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions

Isil Erel, Yeejin Jang and Michael Weisbach

30596: Economic Impact Payments and Household Spending During the Pandemic

Jonathan Parker, Jake Schild, Laura Erhard and David Johnson

30595: Socioeconomic Status and Access to Mental Health Care: The Case of Psychiatric Medications for Children in Ontario Canada

Janet Currie, Paul Kurdyak and Jonathan Zhang

30594: Financial Intermediation and the Funding of Biomedical Innovation: A Review

Andrew Lo and Richard Thakor

30593: The Electric Ceiling: Limits and Costs of Full Electrification

David Rapson and James Bushnell

30592: The Missing Middle Managers: Labor Costs, Firm Structure, and Development

Jonas Hjort, Hannes Malmberg and Todd Schoellman

30591: Housing Wealth and Consumption: The Role of Heterogeneous Credit Constraints

S. Boragan Aruoba, Ronel Elul and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

30590: Global Knowledge and Trade Flows: Theory and Measurement

Nelson Lind and Natalia Ramondo

30589: The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery

Michael Clemens and Ethan Lewis

30588: Can Social Media Rhetoric Incite Hate Incidents? Evidence from Trump's "Chinese Virus" Tweets

Andy Cao, Jason Lindo and Jiee Zhong

30587: Carbon Emissions Trading and Environmental Protection: International Evidence

Jennie Bai and Hong Ru

30586: Oligopsony Power and Factor-Biased Technology Adoption

Michael Rubens

30585: Information Aggregation and Transmission in Strategic Networks

Fan-chin Kung and Ping Wang

30584: A North-South Model of Structural Change and Growth

Maria Aristizabal-Ramirez, John Leahy and Linda Tesar

30583: U.S Electric Utility Adaptation to Natural Disasters Shocks and Green Power Mandates

Robert Huang and Matthew Kahn

30582: African Political Institutions and the Impact of Colonialism

Jutta Bolt, Leigh Gardner, Jennifer Kohler, Jack Paine and James Robinson

30581: When Information Conflicts with Obligations: the Role of Motivated Cognition

Ao Wang, Shaoda Wang and Xiaoyang Ye

30580: Administrative Burdens and Child Medicaid and CHIP Enrollments

Iris Arbogast, Anna Chorniy and Janet Currie

30579: Mechanics of Spatial Growth

Sheng Cai, Lorenzo Caliendo, Fernando Parro and Wei Xiang

30578: The Early County Business Pattern Files: 1946-1974

Fabian Eckert, Ka-leung Lam, Atif Mian, Karsten Müller, Rafael Schwalb and Amir Sufi

30577: Global Fund Flows and Emerging Market Tail Risk

Anusha Chari, Karlye Dilts Stedman and Christian Lundblad

30576: Selfish Corporations

Emanuele Colonnelli, Niels Gormsen and Timothy McQuade

30575: Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials

Marcella Alsan, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein and Heidi Williams

30574: Instrumental Variables with Unordered Treatments: Theory and Evidence from Returns to Fields of Study

Eskil Heinesen, Christian Hvid, Lars Kirkebøen, Edwin Leuven and Magne Mogstad

30573: Differentiable State-Space Models and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Estimation

David Childers, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesse Perla, Christopher Rackauckas and Peifan Wu

30572: Understanding Geographic Disparities in Mortality

Jason Fletcher, Hans G. Schwarz, Michal Engelman, Norman Johnson, Jahn Hakes and Alberto Palloni

30571: Welfare Assessments with Heterogeneous Individuals

Eduardo Davila and Andreas Schaab

30570: What's My Employee Worth? The Effects of Salary Benchmarking

Zoe B. Cullen, Shengwu Li and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

30569: The Covid-19 Baby Bump: The Unexpected Increase in U.S. Fertility Rates in Response to the Pandemic

Martha Bailey, Janet Currie and Hannes Schwandt

30568: Long Social Distancing

Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis

30567: Older Workers’ Employment and Social Security Spillovers through the Second Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Gopi Goda, Emilie Jackson, Lauren Nicholas and Sarah Stith

30566: Global Universal Basic Skills: Current Deficits and Implications for World Development

Sarah Gust, Eric A. Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann

30565: Calculating the Costs and Benefits of Advance Preparations for Future Pandemics

Rachel Glennerster, Christopher M. Snyder and Brandon Tan

30564: Two-way Fixed Effects and Differences-in-Differences Estimators with Several Treatments

Clément de Chaisemartin and Xavier D'Haultfoeuille

30563: The Effects of Racial Segregation on Intergenerational Mobility: Evidence from Historical Railroad Placement

Eric Chyn, Kareem Haggag and Bryan A. Stuart

30562: ESG Confusion and Stock Returns: Tackling the Problem of Noise

Florian Berg, Julian F. Koelbel, Anna Pavlova and Roberto Rigobon

30561: Segmented Arbitrage

Emil Siriwardane, Adi Sunderam and Jonathan L. Wallen

30560: Electricity Retail Rate Design in a Decarbonized Economy: An Analysis of Time-Of-Use and Critical Peak Pricing

Tim Schittekatte, Dharik S. Mallapragada, Paul Joskow and Richard Schmalensee

30559: Can Pollution Cause Poverty? The Effects of Pollution on Educational, Health and Economic Outcomes

Claudia Persico

30558: Understanding the Strength of the Dollar

Zhengyang Jiang, Robert Richmond and Tony Zhang

30557: Deposit and Credit Reallocation in a Banking Panic: The Role of State-Owned Banks

Viral Acharya, Abhiman Das, Nirupama Kulkarni, Prachi Mishra and Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala

30556: The Future of Global Economic Power

Seth G. Benzell, Laurence Kotlikoff, Maria Kazakova, Guillermo LaGarda, Kristina Nesterova, Victor Yifan Ye and Andrey Zubarev

30555: The Dynamics of Large Inflation Surges

Andrés Blanco, Pablo Ottonello and Tereza Ranosova

30554: Running Primary Deficits Forever in a Dynamically Efficient Economy: Feasibility and Optimality

Andrew Abel and Stavros Panageas

30553: Mortality Effects of Healthcare Supply Shocks: Evidence Using Linked Deaths and Electronic Health Records

Engy Ziedan, Kosali I. Simon and Coady Wing

30552: Covid-19 Learning Loss and Recovery: Panel Data Evidence from India

Abhijeet Singh, Mauricio Romero and Karthik Muralidharan

30551: Impact Investing in Disadvantaged Urban Areas

Romain Boulongne, Rodolphe Durand and Caroline Flammer

30550: Direct and indirect effects of vaccines: Evidence from COVID-19

Seth Freedman, Daniel W. Sacks, Kosali I. Simon and Coady Wing

30549: Measuring Welfare by Matching Households Across Time

David Baqaee, Ariel Burstein and Yasutaka Koike-Mori

30548: Secrecy Rules and Exploratory Investment: Theory and Evidence from the Shale Boom

Thomas R. Covert and Richard L. Sweeney

30547: Nudging the Nudger: Performance Feedback and Organ Donor Registrations

Julian House, Nicola Lacetera, Mario Macis and Nina Mazar

30546: Externalities of Policy-Induced Scrappage: The Case of Automotive Regulations

Connor R. Forsythe, Akshaya Jha, Jeremy J. Michalek and Kate S. Whitefoot

30545: How Is the US Pricing Carbon? How Could We Price Carbon?

Joseph Aldy, Dallas Burtraw, Carolyn Fischer, Meredith Fowlie, Roberton Williams and Maureen Cropper

30544: All Clear for Takeoff: Evidence from Airports on the Effects of Infrastructure Privatization

Sabrina T. Howell, Yeejin Jang, Hyeik Kim and Michael Weisbach

30543: Heterogenous Rates of Return on Homes and Other Real Estate: Do the Rich Do Better? Do Black Households Do Worse?

Edward N. Wolff

30542: Multidimensional Screening and Menu Design in Health Insurance Markets

Hector Chade, Victoria Marone, Amanda Starc and Jeroen Swinkels

30541: Coordination and Incumbency Advantage in Multi-Party Systems - Evidence from French Elections

Kevin Dano, Francesco Ferlenga, Vincenzo Galasso, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons

30540: Inequality and Social Distancing during the Pandemic

Caitlin Brown and Martin Ravallion

30539: Does the Squeaky Wheel Get More Grease? The Direct and Indirect Effects of Citizen Participation on Environmental Governance in China

Mark Buntaine, Michael Greenstone, Guojun He, Mengdi Liu, Shaoda Wang and Bing Zhang

30538: Micro Propagation and Macro Aggregation

David Baqaee and Elisa Rubbo

30537: Inflation Expectations and Corporate Borrowing Decisions: New Causal Evidence

Tiziano Ropele, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Olivier Coibion

30536: Jobs in the Smog: Firm Location and Workers’ Exposure to Pollution in African Cities

Vittorio Bassi, Matthew Kahn, Nancy Lozano-Gracia, Tommaso Porzio and Jeanne Sorin

30535: Informationally Efficient Climate Policy: Designing Markets to Measure and Price Externalities

Derek Lemoine

30534: Comparing the Effects of Policies for the Labor Market Integration of Refugees

Mette Foged, Linea Hasager and Giovanni Peri

30533: The Effects of Income on the Economic Wellbeing of Families with Low Incomes: Evidence from the 2021 Expanded Child Tax Credit

Natasha Pilkauskas, Katherine Michelmore, Nicole Kovski and H. Luke Shaefer

30532: The Impacts of COVID-19 on Racial Inequality in Business Earnings

Robert Fairlie

30531: Dust to Feed, Dust to Grey: The Effect of In-Utero Exposure to the Dust Bowl on Old-Age Longevity

Hamid Noghanibehambari and Jason Fletcher

30530: A Horse Race of Monetary Policy Regimes: An Experimental Investigation

Olena Kostyshyna, Luba Petersen and Jing Yang

30529: Comparing China REACH and the Jamaica Home Visiting Program

Jin Zhou, James J. Heckman, Bei Liu, Mai Lu, Susan M. Chang and Sally Grantham-McGregor

30528: Automation and Polarization

Daron Acemoglu and Jonas Loebbing

30527: How to Run Surveys: A Guide to Creating Your Own Identifying Variation and Revealing the Invisible

Stefanie Stantcheva

30526: Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse

Arpit Gupta, Vrinda Mittal and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

30525: Horses for Courses: Measuring Foreign Supply Chain Exposure

Richard Baldwin, Rebecca Freeman and Angelos Theodorakopoulos

30524: Global Trends in Income Inequality and Income Dynamics: New Insights from GRID

Fatih Guvenen, Luigi Pistaferri and Giovanni Violante

30523: Are Immigrants more Left leaning than Natives?

Simone Moriconi, Giovanni Peri and Riccardo Turati

30522: War, Influenza, and U.S. Carbon Intensity

Nicholas Muller

30521: Know Your Customer: Informed Trading by Banks

Rainer Haselmann, Christian Leuz and Sebastian Schreiber

30520: Assessing School District Decision-Making: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Alvin Christian, Brian Jacob and John D. Singleton

30519: A Tale of Tier 3 Cities

Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang

30518: Neoclassical Growth with Long-Term One-Sided Commitment Contracts

Dirk Krueger and Harald Uhlig

30517: Culture Clash: Incompatible Reputation Mechanisms and Intergroup Conflict

Vasiliki Fouka and Alain Schläpfer

30516: Housing Dynamics: Theory Behind Empirics

Ping Wang and Danyang Xie

30515: Urban-Biased Growth: A Macroeconomic Analysis

Fabian Eckert, Sharat Ganapati and Conor Walsh

30514: Imperfect Competition and Sanitation: Evidence from Randomized Auctions in Senegal

Jean-François Houde, Terence R. Johnson, Molly Lipscomb and Laura A. Schechter

30513: Listen to Her: Gender Differences in Information Diffusion within the Household

Dietmar Fehr, Johanna Mollerstrom and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

30512: Excess Death Rates for Republicans and Democrats During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Jacob Wallace, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham and Jason L. Schwartz