Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data

Simon Smith, Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright

No 31153, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We revisit time-variation in the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with breakpoints to US and European Union disaggregate data. Our approach allows us to accurately estimate both the number and timing of breaks in the Phillips curve. It further allows us to determine the existence of clusters of industries, cities, or countries whose Phillips curves display similar patterns of instability and to examine lead-lag patterns in how individual inflation series change. We find evidence of a marked flattening in the Phillips curves for US sectoral data and among EU countries, particularly poorer ones. Conversely, evidence of a flattening is weaker for MSA-level data and for the wage Phillips curve. US regional data and EU data point to a kink in the price Phillips curve which remains relatively steep when the economy is running hot.

JEL-codes: C11 C22 E51 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-eec and nep-ets
Note: ME
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w31153.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data (2023)
Working Paper: Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data (2023)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31153

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w31153

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().