NBER Working Papers

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27262: Simplified Electricity Market Models with Significant Intermittent Renewable Capacity: Evidence from Italy

Christoph Graf, Federico Quaglia and Frank A. Wolak

27261: Building Better Retirement Systems in the Wake of the Global Pandemic

Olivia Mitchell

27260: An Experimental Comparison of Carbon Pricing Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets

Trevor L. Davis, Mark C. Thurber and Frank A. Wolak

27259: Measuring the Spatial Distribution of Health Rankings in the United States

Will Davis, Zander Gordan and Rusty Tchernis

27258: Bank Market Power and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from a Structural Estimation

Yifei Wang, Toni Whited, Yufeng Wu and Kairong Xiao

27257: Robust Identification of Investor Beliefs

Xiaohong Chen, Lars Hansen and Peter G. Hansen

27256: Banks as Lenders of First Resort: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis

Lei Li, Philip E. Strahan and Song Zhang

27255: Retaliatory Use of Public Standards in Trade

Kjersti Nes and K Aleks Schaefer

27254: Transportation Infrastructure in the US

Gilles Duranton, Geetika Nagpal and Matthew Turner

27253: Competition Laws and Corporate Innovation

Ross Levine, Chen Lin, Lai Wei and Wensi Xie

27252: Are Trade Agreements Good For You?

Giovanni Maggi and Ralph Ossa

27251: Cost Saving and the Freezing of Corporate Pension Plans

Joshua Rauh, Irina Stefanescu and Stephen Zeldes

27250: Research Registries: Facts, Myths, and Possible Improvements

Eliot Abrams, Jonathan Libgober and John List

27249: COVID-19 and Implications for Automation

Alex Chernoff and Casey Warman

27248: Panel Forecasts of Country-Level Covid-19 Infections

Laura Liu, Hyungsik Roger Moon and Frank Schorfheide

27247: A Unifying Approach to Measuring Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Antonio Bento, Noah S. Miller, Mehreen Mookerjee and Edson Severnini

27246: The Impacts of COVID-19 on Minority Unemployment: First Evidence from April 2020 CPS Microdata

Robert Fairlie, Kenneth Couch and Huanan Xu

27245: Fatalism, Beliefs, and Behaviors During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Jesper Akesson, Sam Ashworth-Hayes, Robert Hahn, Robert Metcalfe and Itzhak Rasooly

27244: Reopening Scenarios

David Baqaee, Emmanuel Farhi, Michael J. Mina and James Stock

27243: The Adverse Effect of the COVID-19 Labor Market Shock on Immigrant Employment

George Borjas and Hugh Cassidy

27242: Sufficient Statistics Revisited

Henrik Kleven

27241: Human Capital Investment in the Presence of Child Labor

Natalie Bau, Martin Rotemberg, Manisha Shah and Bryce Steinberg

27240: Persistent Effects of Violent Media Content

Jason Lindo, Isaac D. Swensen and Glen Waddell

27239: DEglobalizaion and Social Safety Nets in Post-Covid-19 Era: Textbook Macroeconomic Analysis

Assaf Razin, Efraim Sadka and Alexander Schwemmer

27238: The Seeds of Ideology: Historical Immigration and Political Preferences in the United States

Paola Giuliano and Marco Tabellini

27237: The Persuasive Effect of Fox News: Non-Compliance with Social Distancing During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Andrey Simonov, Szymon Sacher, Jean-Pierre H. Dubé and Shirsho Biswas

27236: Mobility Zones

Ferdinando Monte

27235: Impacts of State Reopening Policy on Human Mobility

Thuy D. Nguyen, Sumedha Gupta, Martin Andersen, Ana Bento, Kosali Simon and Coady Wing

27234: Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?

Robert Hall and Marianna Kudlyak

27233: Three Myths about Federal Regulation

Patrick A. McLaughlin and Casey Mulligan

27232: The Hammer and the Scalpel: On the Economics of Indiscriminate versus Targeted Isolation Policies during Pandemics

Varadarajan Chari, Rishabh Kirpalani and Christopher Phelan

27231: The Term Structure of Covered Interest Rate Parity Violations

Patrick Augustin, Mikhail Chernov, Lukas Schmid and Dongho Song

27230: Spatial Misallocation in Chinese Housing and Land Markets

Yongheng Deng, Yang Tang, Ping Wang and Jing Wu

27229: Were Urban Cowboys Enough to Control COVID-19? Local Shelter-in-Place Orders and Coronavirus Case Growth

Dhaval Dave, Andrew Friedson, Kyutaro Matsuzawa, Joseph J. Sabia and Samuel Safford

27228: The Macroeconomics of a Pandemic: A Minimalist Model

Luis Cespedes, Roberto Chang and Andrés Velasco

27227: Necessary Evidence For A Risk Factor’s Relevance

Alexander M. Chinco, Samuel M. Hartzmark and Abigail B. Sussman

27226: Bounding the Predictive Values of COVID-19 Antibody Tests

Charles Manski

27225: Deputization

Bruce I. Carlin, Tarik Umar and Hanyi Yi

27224: Global Supply Chains in the Pandemic

Barthélémy Bonadio, Zhen Huo, Andrei Levchenko and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

27223: Voluntary Regulation: Evidence from Medicare Payment Reform

Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Yunan Ji and Neale Mahoney

27222: Tokenomics: Dynamic Adoption and Valuation

Lin Cong, Ye Li and Neng Wang

27221: When is Debt Odious? A Theory of Repression and Growth Traps

Viral Acharya, Raghuram Rajan and Jack Shim

27220: The Cost of Privacy: Welfare Effects of the Disclosure of COVID-19 Cases

David Argente, Chang-Tai Hsieh and Munseob Lee

27219: Global Comparatives Statics in General Equilibrium: Model Building from Theoretical Foundations

James Markusen

27218: Implications of Stochastic Transmission Rates for Managing Pandemic Risks

Harrison Hong, Neng Wang and Jinqiang Yang

27217: The Long-Term Cognitive and Schooling Effects of Childhood Vaccinations in China

Hamid R. Oskorouchi, Alfonso Sousa-Poza and David Bloom

27216: US Unemployment Insurance Replacement Rates During the Pandemic

Peter Ganong, Pascal J. Noel and Joseph Vavra

27215: The Economics of Urban Density

Gilles Duranton and Diego Puga

27214: Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis

Kaiji Chen, Patrick Higgins and Tao Zha

27213: In Search of Distress Risk in Emerging Markets

Gonzalo Asis, Anusha Chari and Adam Haas

27212: Financing Vaccines for Global Health Security

Jonathan T. Vu, Benjamin K. Kaplan, Shomesh Chaudhuri, Monique K. Mansoura and Andrew Lo

27211: Heterogeneous Actions, Beliefs, Constraints and Risk Tolerance During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Ying Fan, Yesim Orhun and Dana Turjeman

27210: Collateralized Marriage

Jeanne Lafortune and Corinne Low

27209: Housing Search Frictions: Evidence from Detailed Search Data and a Field Experiment

Peter Bergman, Eric W. Chan and Adam Kapor

27208: Corporate Hiring under COVID-19: Labor Market Concentration, Downskilling, and Income Inequality

Murillo Campello, Gaurav Kankanhalli and Pradeep Muthukrishnan

27207: Can the Covid Bailouts Save the Economy?

Vadim Elenev, Tim Landvoigt and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

27206: Innovation, Growth and Structural Change in American Agriculture

Julian Alston and Philip Pardey

27205: Do Environmental Markets Cause Environmental Injustice? Evidence from California's Carbon Market

Danae Hernandez-Cortes and Kyle Meng

27204: Cigarette Taxes and Smoking in the Long Run

Andrew Friedson and Daniel Rees

27203: Patents, Innovation, and Development

Bronwyn Hall

27202: Modeling the Impacts of Agricultural Support Policies on Emissions from Agriculture

David Laborde Debucquet, Abdullah Mamun, Will Martin, Valeria Pineiro and Robert Vos

27201: Urbanization in the Developing World: Too Early or Too Slow?

J. Vernon Henderson and Matthew Turner

27200: Can the World’s Poor Protect Themselves from the New Coronavirus?

Caitlin Brown, Martin Ravallion and Dominique van de Walle

27199: Foreign Exchange Order Flow as a Risk Factor

Craig Burnside, Mario Cerrato and Zhekai Zhang

27198: Identification of Time-Inconsistent Models: The Case of Insecticide Treated Nets

Aprajit Mahajan, Christian Michel and Alessandro Tarozzi

27197: Correcting Estimates of Electric Vehicle Emissions Abatement: Implications for Climate Policy

Erich Muehlegger and David Rapson

27196: Males at the Tails: How Socioeconomic Status Shapes the Gender Gap

David Autor, David Figlio, Krzysztof Karbownik, Jeffrey Roth and Melanie Wasserman

27195: Interest Rates and the Design of Financial Contracts

Michael Roberts and Michael Schwert

27194: Issue Salience and Political Stereotypes

Pedro Bordalo, Marco Tabellini and David Yang

27193: The Declining Worker Power Hypothesis: An explanation for the recent evolution of the American economy

Anna Stansbury and Lawrence Summers

27192: Language Barriers, Technology Adoption and Productivity: Evidence from Agriculture in India

Apoorv Gupta, Jacopo Ponticelli and Andrea Tesei

27191: COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows

Cem Çakmaklı, Selva Demiralp, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Sevcan Yesiltas and Muhammed A. Yildirim

27190: How Sticky is Retirement Behavior in the U.S.? Responses to Changes in the Full Retirement Age

ManasI Deshpande, Itzik Fadlon and Colin Gray

27189: Trust and Insurance Contracts

Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes and Andrei Shleifer

27188: Public Procurement in Law and Practice

Erica Bosio, Simeon Djankov, Edward Glaeser and Andrei Shleifer

27187: The Relationship between In-Person Voting and COVID-19: Evidence from the Wisconsin Primary

Chad Cotti, Bryan Engelhardt, Joshua Foster, Erik Nesson and Paul S. Niekamp

27186: Confidence Management in Tournaments

Shanglyu Deng, Hanming Fang, Qiang Fu and Zenan Wu

27185: Accounting for Global COVID-19 Diffusion Patterns, January-April 2020

Yothin Jinjarak, Rashad Ahmed, Sameer Nair-Desai, Weining Xin and Joshua Aizenman

27184: The Size and Life-cycle Growth of Plants: The Role of Productivity, Demand and Wedges

Marcela Eslava and John Haltiwanger

27183: Launching with a Parachute: The Gig Economy and New Business Formation

John Barrios, Yael V. Hochberg and Hanyi Yi

27182: Latent Dirichlet Analysis of Categorical Survey Expectations

Evan M. Munro and Serena Ng

27181: Innovation in the U.S. Government

Joshua R. Bruce and John M. de Figueiredo

27180: The Incidence of Foreign Market Accessibility on Farmland Rental Rates

Jisang Yu, Nelson Villoria and Nathan Hendricks

27179: Savings and Saving Rates: Up or Down?

Guillermo Ordonez and Facundo Piguillem

27178: Deliberate Surrender? The Impact of Interwar Indian Protection

Vellore Arthi, Markus Lampe, Ashwin R Nair and Kevin O'Rourke

27177: The Economic Impact of Access to Public Four-Year Colleges

Jonathan Smith, Joshua Goodman and Michael Hurwitz

27176: Estimating Probabilities of Success of Vaccine and Other Anti-Infective Therapeutic Development Programs

Andrew Lo, Kien Wei Siah and Chi Heem Wong

27175: Bayesian Adaptive Clinical Trials for Anti‐Infective Therapeutics during Epidemic Outbreaks

Shomesh Chaudhuri, Andrew Lo, Danying Xiao and Qingyang Xu

27174: The Influence of Early Life Health Conditions on Life Course Health

Manuel Flores and Barbara Wolfe

27173: Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Outpatient Providers in the US

Pinka Chatterji and Yue Li

27172: Optimal Contracting with Altruistic Agents: A Structural Model of Medicare Payments for Dialysis Drugs

Martin Gaynor, Nirav Mehta and Seth Richards-Shubik

27171: China's Model of Managing the Financial System

Markus Brunnermeier, Michael Sockin and Wei Xiong

27170: The Accumulation of Human and Market Capital in the United States: The Long View, 1948–2013

Barbara M. Fraumeni, Michael S. Christian and Jon D. Samuels

27169: The Contribution of Chinese Diaspora Researchers to Global Science and China's Catching Up in Scientific Research

Qingnan Xie and Richard Freeman

27168: When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed’s Response

Valentin Haddad, Alan Moreira and Tyler Muir

27167: Using Disasters to Estimate the Impact of Uncertainty

Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Stephen Terry

27166: Reopening Under COVID-19: What to Watch For

Jeffrey E. Harris

27165: The Economics of Time-Limited Development Options: The Case of Oil and Gas Leases

Evan M. Herrnstadt, Ryan Kellogg and Eric Lewis

27164: The Marginal Net Taxation of Americans’ Labor Supply

David Altig, Alan Auerbach, Laurence Kotlikoff, Elias Ilin and Victor Ye

27163: Robbing Peter to Pay Paul: Understanding How State Tax Credits Impact Charitable Giving

Chandrayee Chatterjee, James Cox, Michael Price and Florian Rundhammer