NBER Working Papers

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34017: Broad Divisia Money, Supply Pressures, and U.S. Inflation Following the COVID-19 Recession

Michael Bordo, John Duca and Barry Jones

34016: Wealth Inequality, Labor Market Arrangements and the Secular Decline in the Real Interest Rate

John B. Donaldson, Hyung Seok E. Kim and Rajnish Mehra

34015: Early and Accurate Recession Detection Using Classifiers on the Anticipation-Precision Frontier

Pascal Michaillat

34014: Optimal Estimation of Two-Way Effects under Limited Mobility

Xu Cheng, Sheng Chao Ho and Frank Schorfheide

34013: Racial Inequality in France

Yajna Govind, Paolo Santini and Ellora Derenoncourt

34012: Do Workforce Development Programs Bridge the Skills Gap?

Eleanor Dillon, Lisa B. Kahn, Joanna Venator and Michael Dalton

34011: Public Goods Under Financial Distress

Pawel Janas

34010: The Geography of Innovative Firms

Craig A. Chikis, Benny Kleinman and Marta Prato

34009: Unpriced Risks: Rethinking Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing

Mikhail Chernov, Magnus Dahlquist and Lars A. Lochstoer

34008: Debt and Assets

Efraim Benmelech, Nitish Kumar and Raghuram Rajan

34007: Income Elasticity of Demand for Healthy and Unhealthy Foods: Evidence from Lump-Sum Earned Income Tax Credit Payments

Emma LaGuardia, Leslie McGranahan and Diane Schanzenbach

34006: International Power

Ernest Liu and David Yang

34005: From Rural Schools to City Factories: Assessing the Quality of Chinese Rural Schools

Eric Hanushek, Le Kang, Xueying Li and Lei Zhang

34004: Political Foundations of Racial Violence in the Post-Reconstruction South

Patrick Testa and Jhacova A. Williams

34003: Tariffs and Trade Deficits

Lorenzo Caliendo, Samuel Kortum and Fernando Parro

34002: Central Banks as Educators

Carola Binder

34001: When Do Migrants Shape Culture?

Samuel Bazzi and Martin Fiszbein

34000: Productivity Beliefs and Efficiency in Science

Fabio Bertolotti, Kyle Myers and Wei Yang Tham

33999: Finding John Smith: Using Extra Information for Historical Record Linkage

Ran Abramitzky, Leah Boustan, Harriet M. Brookes Gray, Katherine Eriksson, Santiago Perez, Hannah M. Postel, Myera Rashid and Noah Simon

33998: AI and the Fed

Sophia Kazinnik and Erik Brynjolfsson

33997: Transitory and Permanent Import Tariff Shocks in the United States: An Empirical Investigation

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martín Uribe

33996: Where Discovery Happens: Research Institutions and Fundamental Knowledge in the Life-Sciences

Amitabh Chandra and Connie Xu

33995: The Revenue and Distributional Impacts of Unemployment Insurance Reform: Evidence from California

Mark Duggan, Jonathan Gruber and Audrey Guo

33994: Health Spillovers: The Broad Impact of Spousal Health Shocks

Carolina Arteaga, Natalia Vigezzi and Pilar Garcia-Gomez

33993: Technifying Ventures

Yoshiki Ando, Emin Dinlersoz, Jeremy Greenwood and Ruben Piazzesi

33992: Extending Healthspans in an Aging World

Stephen P. Utkus and Olivia Mitchell

33991: The Real Costs of Washing Away Corruption: Evidence from Brazil’s Lava Jato Investigation

Claudio Ferraz, Luiz C. Moura, Lars Norden and Ricardo Schechtman

33990: Effects of the Minimum Wage on Employment of Young Adults with Cognitive Disabilities

Barry Chiswick, Hope Corman, Dhaval Dave and Nancy Reichman

33989: Why Is Fertility So Low in High Income Countries?

Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine

33988: Doctors as Gatekeepers in Social Insurance: Evidence from Workers’ Compensation Insurance

Marika Cabral and Marcus Dillender

33987: Due Diligence and the Allocation of Venture Capital

Xiaoyong (Jack) Fu and Lucian A. Taylor

33986: Do Pensions Enhance Teacher Effort and Selective Retention?

Michael Bates and Andrew Johnston

33985: What Do Market-Access Subsidies Do? Experimental Evidence from Tunisia

Nadia Ali, Giacomo De Giorgi, Aminur Rahman and Eric Verhoogen

33984: Out-of-School Learning: Subtitling vs. Dubbing and the Acquisition of Foreign-Language Skills

Frauke Baumeister, Eric Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann

33983: Carbon Rollercoaster: A Historical Analysis of Decarbonization in the United States

Karen Clay, Akshaya Jha, Joshua Lewis and Edson Severnini

33982: Basel Endgame: Bank Capital Requirements and the Future of International Standard Setting

Stephen Cecchetti, Jeremy C. Kress and Kermit Schoenholtz

33981: Lab Experiments in Developing Country Contexts

Sara Lowes and Nathan Nunn

33980: Coordination and Cooperation

Pedro Dal Bó and Guillaume Fréchette

33979: Attribute Production and Biased Technical Change in Automobiles

Asa Watten and Soren Anderson

33978: How Does Wage Inequality Affect the Labor Movement?

Barbara Biasi, Zoë B. Cullen, Julia H. Gilman and Nina Roussille

33977: Money or Monitoring: Evidence on Improving Worker Effort

Jing Cai, Sai Luo and Shing-Yi Wang

33976: State of the Art: Economic Development Through the Lens of Paintings

Clément Gorin, Stephan Heblich and Yanos Zylberberg

33975: Eurosclerosis at 40: Labor Market Institutions, Dynamism, and European Competitiveness

Benjamin Schoefer

33974: Firewood in the American Economy: 1700 to 2010

Nicholas Muller

33973: The Political Economy of Stimulus Transfers

Silvia Vannutelli

33972: The Power Asymmetry in Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Designs

Daniel Kaliski, Michael Keane and Timothy Neal

33971: How the 1942 Japanese Exclusion Impacted U.S. Agriculture

Peter Lin and Giovanni Peri

33970: Economics of Childbearing: Trends, Progress, and Challenges

Martha Bailey

33969: Accounting Standards and Antidumping Investigations

Stephen Teng. Sun, Shang-Jin Wei and Jin Xie

33968: A Macroeconomic Model of Central Bank Digital Currency

Pascal Paul, Mauricio Ulate and Jing Cynthia Wu

33967: Mergers and Quality Provision in Healthcare: Evidence from Nursing Homes

Pinka Chatterji, Chun-Yu Ho and Wenqing Li

33966: Moment Restrictions for Nonlinear Panel Data Models with Feedback

Stéphane Bonhomme, Kevin Dano and Bryan Graham

33965: Common Ownership Around the World

Miguel Antón, Florian Ederer, Mireia Gine and Guillermo Ramirez-Chiang

33964: Foreign Political Risk and Technological Change

Joel Flynn, Antoine B. Levy, Jacob Moscona and Mai Wo

33963: A Stairway to Success: How Parenting Shapes Culture and Social Stratification

Francesco Agostinelli, Matthias Doepke, Giuseppe Sorrenti and Fabrizio Zilibotti

33962: Uncertainty in Empirical Economics

Frank Schorfheide and Zhiheng You

33961: Immigration and Inequality in the Next Generation

Mark Borgschulte, Heepyung Cho, Darren Lubotsky and Jonathan Rothbaum

33960: Borrowing Constraints, Markups, and Misallocation

Huiyu Li, Chen Lian, Yueran Ma and Emily Martell

33959: Net Worth Poverty in Childhood: How Duration and Timing Affect Educational Outcomes

Christina M. Gibson-Davis, Lisa A. Keister, Lisa A. Gennetian and Shuyi Qiu

33958: Building Costs and House Prices

Brian Potter and Chad Syverson

33957: Blockbusters, Sequels and the Nature of Innovation

Wesley M. Cohen, Matthew Higgins, William D. Miles and Yoko Shibuya

33956: The Net Benefits of Raising Bachelor’s Degree Completion through the City University of New York ACE Program

Judith Scott-Clayton, Irwin Garfinkel, Elizabeth Ananat, Sophie M. Collyer, Robert Hartley, Anastasia Koutavas, Buyi Wang and Christopher Wimer

33955: Maturity Risks and Bank Runs

Jihene Arfaoui and Harald Uhlig

33954: Do Physicians Follow the Golden Rule? Evidence of Imperfect Agency and Moral Hazard from Physicians’ Self-Prescriptions

Mariana Carrera and Niels Skipper

33953: Uncertainty through the Production Network: Sectoral Origins and Macroeconomic Implications

Matteo Cacciatore and Giacomo Candian

33952: FCI-star

Ricardo Caballero, Tomás E. Caravello and Alp Simsek

33951: Tapping Business and Household Surveys to Sharpen Our View of Work from Home

Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Kathryn Bonney, Cory L. Breaux, Catherine Buffington, Steven Davis, Lucia Foster, Brian McKenzie, Keith Savage and Cristina Tello-Trillo

33950: Life Satisfaction in Western Europe and the Gradual Vanishing of the U-shape in Age

David Blanchflower and Alex Bryson

33949: Designing Human-AI Collaboration: A Sufficient-Statistic Approach

Nikhil Agarwal, Alex Moehring and Alexander Wolitzky

33948: A Matter of Time? Measuring Effects of Public Schooling Expansions on Families

Chloe Gibbs, Jocelyn S. Wikle and Riley Wilson

33947: Culture, Policy, and Economic Development

Natalie Bau, Sara Lowes and Eduardo Montero

33946: Quantifying Racial Disparities Using Consecutive Employment Spells

Isaac Sorkin

33945: Small Business Innovation Applied to National Needs

Kyle Myers, Lauren Lanahan and Evan Johnson

33944: Funding the U.S. Scientific Training Ecosystem: New Data, Methods, and Evidence

Dror Shvadron, Hansen Zhang, Lee Fleming and Daniel Gross

33943: Financing the Next VC-Backed Startup: The Role of Gender

Camille Hebert, Emmanuel Yimfor and Heather Tookes

33942: Private Equity and Workers: Modeling and Measuring Monopsony, Implicit Contracts, and Efficient Reallocation

Kyle F. Herkenhoff, Josh Lerner, Gordon Phillips, Francisca Rebelo and Benjamin Sampson

33941: Expertise

David Autor and Neil Thompson

33940: Convenience Lost

Zhengyang Jiang, Robert Richmond and Tony Zhang

33939: Production Function Estimation without Invertibility: Imperfectly Competitive Environments and Demand Shocks

Ulrich Doraszelski and Lixiong Li

33938: Group Health Insurance Versus ACA Marketplaces: Selection, Subsidies, and Welfare

Sebastian Fleitas, Caitlyn Fleming, Gautam Gowrisankaran and Anthony T. Lo Sasso

33937: Medical School Closures, Market Adjustment, and Mortality in the Flexner Report Era

Karen Clay, Grant Miller, Margarita Portnykh and Ethan J. Schmick

33936: Cosmetology Gets a Trim: The Impact of Reducing Licensing Hours on Colleges and Students

Nicolas Acevedo Rebolledo, Kathryn J. Blanchard and Stephanie Riegg Cellini

33935: Health Insurance Protections and Ex Ante Moral Hazard in Risky Health Behaviors

Barış Yörük, Joseph J. Sabia, Tessie Krishna and Dhaval Dave

33934: Transition to Green Technology along the Supply Chain

Philippe Aghion, Lint Barrage, Eric Donald, David Hemous and Ernest Liu

33933: Controlling Collective Attention: Flooding versus Focusing by Politicians

Joshua Gans

33932: Is Less Really More? Comparing the Climate and Productivity Impacts of a Shrinking Population

Mark Budolfson, Michael Geruso, Kevin J. Kuruc, Dean Spears and Sangita Vyas

33931: The Longevity of Older Wives and Their Husbands: Comparing Actual Couples with Synthetic Couples

Janice Compton, Robert Pollak and Seth Sanders

33930: The Labor Supply Curve is Upward Sloping: The Effects of Immigrant-Induced Demand Shocks

Sigurd Galaasen, Andreas Kostøl, Joan Monras and Jonathan Vogel

33929: Macro Shocks and Firm-Level Response Heterogeneity

Steven Davis, Stephen Hansen and Cristhian Seminario-Amez

33928: Economic Models of Cultural Transmission

Alberto Bisin and Thierry Verdier

33927: Bequests

Charles Horioka

33926: Welfare Programs and Crime Spillovers

David Jinkins, Elira Kuka and Claudio Labanca

33925: Does Matching Contribution Incentivize Informal Workers to Participate in Retirement Saving Plans? A Randomized Evaluation Interacted with a Natural Experiment

Noelia Bernal Lobato, Sebastian Galiani and Oswaldo Molina

33924: Using AI to Generate Option C Scaling Ideas: A Case Study in Early Education

Faith Fatchen, John List and Francesca Pagnotta

33923: Like Great-Grandparent, Like Great-Grandchild? Multigenerational Mobility in American History

Zachary Ward, Kasey Buckles and Joseph Price

33922: The Neoclassical Theory of Firm Investment and Taxes: A Reassessment

Gabriel Chodorow-Reich

33921: Increasing Degree Attainment Among Low-Income Students: The Role of Intensive Advising and College Quality

Andrew Barr and Ben Castleman

33920: The Social Desirability Atlas

Leonardo Bursztyn, Ingar K. Haaland, Nicolas Röver and Christopher Roth

33919: Scalable Targeting of Social Protection: When Do Algorithms Out-Perform Surveys and Community Knowledge?

Emily Aiken, Anik Ashraf, Joshua Blumenstock, Raymond Guiteras and Ahmed Mobarak

33918: Who Benefits from Paid Family Leave? The Impact on Informal and Formal Care for Middle-Aged and Older Adults with Disabilities

Yuting Qian and Xi Chen