NBER Working Papers

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28427: A Model of the Data Economy

Maryam Farboodi and Laura Veldkamp

28426: The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation

Alp Simsek

28425: Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: Evidence from U.S. States

Gerald Carlino, Thorsten Drautzburg, Robert P. Inman and Nicholas Zarra

28424: Earnings Inequality in Production Networks

Federico Huneeus, Kory Kroft and Kevin Lim

28423: From Micro to Macro Development

Francisco Buera, Joseph Kaboski and Robert Townsend

28422: The Incidence of Extreme Economic Stress: Evidence from Utility Disconnections

Steve Cicala

28421: Migration, Specialization, and Trade: Evidence from Brazil's March to the West

Heitor Pellegrina and Sebastian Sotelo

28420: A Reconsideration of the Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity for the U.S. Dollar

Charles Engel, Ekaterina Kazakova, Mengqi Wang and Nan Xiang

28419: Education Gradients in Mortality Trends by Gender and Race

Adam Leive and Christopher Ruhm

28418: COVID-19 and SMEs: A 2021 "Time Bomb"?

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Veronika Penciakova and Nick Sander

28417: Early Joiners and Startup Performance

Joonkyu Choi, Nathan Goldschlag, John Haltiwanger and J. Daniel Kim

28416: Real Credit Cycles

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen Terry

28415: Economic Fluctuations and Pseudo-Wealth

Joseph Stiglitz

28414: Sales Losses in the First Quarter of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from California Administrative Data

Robert Fairlie and Frank Fossen

28413: Selection on Welfare Gains: Experimental Evidence from Electricity Plan Choice

Koichiro Ito, Takanori Ida and Makoto Tanaka

28412: Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises

Sewon Hur, Cesar Sosa-Padilla and Zeynep Yom

28411: Kindleberger Cycles: Method in the madness of crowds?

Randall Morck

28410: Political Violence, Risk Aversion, and Non-Localized Disease Spread: Evidence from the U.S. Capitol Riot

Dhaval Dave, Drew McNichols and Joseph J. Sabia

28409: Wage Posting or Wage Bargaining? A Test Using Dual Jobholders

Marta Lachowska, Alexandre Mas, Raffaele Saggio and Stephen Woodbury

28408: Model Complexity, Expectations, and Asset Prices

Pooya Molavi, Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi and Andrea Vedolin

28407: Workforce Aging, Pension Reforms, and Firm Outcomes

Francesca Carta, Francesco D'Amuri and Till von Wachter

28406: Scope Challenges to Social Impact

Monica P. Bhatt, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig and Anuj K. Shah

28405: Bad Men, Good Roads, Jim Crow, and the Economics of Southern Chain Gangs

Howard Bodenhorn

28404: Exchange Rates and Prices: Evidence from the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation

Raphael Auer, Ariel Burstein and Sarah Lein

28403: A Theory of Power Structure and Institutional Compatibility: China vs. Europe Revisited

Ruixue Jia, Gérard Roland and Yang Xie

28402: The Worker-Job Surplus

Ilse Lindenlaub and Fabien Postel-Vinay

28401: The Productivity Consequences of Pollution-Induced Migration in China

Gaurav Khanna, Wenquan Liang, Ahmed Mobarak and Ran Song

28400: Marriage Dynamics, Earnings Dynamics, and Lifetime Family Income

Joseph Altonji, Daniel Giraldo Páez, Disa Hynsjo and Ivan Vidangos

28399: Seeing Beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes

Doruk Cengiz, Arindrajit Dube, Attila S. Lindner and David Zentler-Munro

28398: Tax Filing and Take-Up: Experimental Evidence on Tax Preparation Outreach and EITC Participation

Jacob Goldin, Tatiana Homonoff, Rizwan Javaid and Brenda Schafer

28397: Gender and Bureaucratic Corruption: Evidence from Two Countries

Francesco Decarolis, Raymond Fisman, Paolo Pinotti, Silvia Vannutelli and Yongxiang Wang

28396: Is Automatic Enrollment Consistent with a Life Cycle Model?

Jason Scott, John B. Shoven, Sita Slavov and John G. Watson

28395: The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks

Cem Çakmaklı, Selva Demiralp, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Sevcan Yesiltas and Muhammed A. Yıldırım

28394: Housing Precarity & the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impacts of Utility Disconnection and Eviction Moratoria on Infections and Deaths Across US Counties

Kay Jowers, Christopher Timmins, Nrupen Bhavsar, Qihui Hu and Julia Marshall

28393: A Call for Structured Ethics Appendices in Social Science Papers

Edward Asiedu, Dean Karlan, Monica Lambon-Quayefio and Christopher Udry

28392: COVID-19 and Global Income Inequality

Angus Deaton

28391: Trade and Domestic Distortions: the Case of Informality

Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Pinelopi Goldberg, Costas Meghir and Gabriel Ulyssea

28390: Quality and Price Setting of High-Tech Goods

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Oleksandr Talavera and Nam Vu

28389: Where is Pollution Moving? Environmental Markets and Environmental Justice

Joseph Shapiro and Reed Walker

28388: Myth or Measurement: What Does the New Minimum Wage Research Say about Minimum Wages and Job Loss in the United States?

David Neumark and Peter Shirley

28387: Public Economics and Inequality: Uncovering Our Social Nature

Emmanuel Saez

28386: Hungry for Success? SNAP Timing, High-Stakes Exam Performance, and College Attendance

Timothy Bond, Jillian Carr, Analisa Packham and Jonathan Smith

28385: Trends in U.S. Spatial Inequality: Concentrating Affluence and a Democratization of Poverty

Cecile Gaubert, Patrick Kline, Damián Vergara and Danny Yagan

28384: Constrained-Efficient Capital Reallocation

Andrea Lanteri and Adriano Rampini

28383: Household Wealth Trends in the United States, 1962 to 2019: Median Wealth Rebounds... But Not Enough

Edward N. Wolff

28382: Gender Differences in (some) Formative Inputs to Child Development

Michael Baker

28381: The Impact of Regulation on Innovation

Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud and John van Reenen

28380: A Second-best Argument for Low Optimal Tariffs

Lorenzo Caliendo, Robert Feenstra, John Romalis and Alan Taylor

28379: The Organization of Innovation: Incomplete Contracts and the Outsourcing Decision

Thomas Jungbauer, Sean Nicholson, June Pan, Michael Waldman and Lucy Xiaolu Wang

28378: Contracting in Peer Networks

Peter DeMarzo and Ron Kaniel

28377: Liquidity, Pledgeability, and the Nature of Lending

Douglas Diamond, Yunzhi Hu and Raghuram Rajan

28376: Information Avoidance and Image Concerns

Christine L. Exley and Judd B. Kessler

28375: Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages: The Role of Spillover Effects

Nicole Fortin, Thomas Lemieux and Neil Lloyd

28374: The Impact of the Non-essential Business Closure Policy on Covid-19 Infection Rates

Hummy Song, Ryan M. McKenna, Angela T. Chen, Guy David and Aaron Smith-McLallen

28373: The Effects of Youth Employment on Crime: Evidence from New York City Lotteries

Judd B. Kessler, Sarah Tahamont, Alexander M. Gelber and Adam Isen

28372: Globalization and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Evidence from the United States

Claire Brunel and Arik Levinson

28371: Efficiency and Equity Impacts of Energy Subsidies

Robert W. Hahn and Robert Metcalfe

28370: Poverty in China since 1950: A Counterfactual Perspective

Martin Ravallion

28369: Competition for Attention in the ETF Space

Itzhak Ben-David, Francesco Franzoni, Byungwook Kim and Rabih Moussawi

28368: Price Limits in a Tradable Performance Standard

Banban Wang, William Pizer and Clayton Munnings

28367: Robust Financial Contracting and Investment

Aifan Ling, Jianjun Miao and Neng Wang

28366: Fiscal Multipliers: A Heterogenous-Agent Perspective

Tobias Broer, Per Krusell and Erik Öberg

28365: Changes in Social Network Structure in Response to Exposure to Formal Credit Markets

Abhijit Banerjee, Emily Breza, Arun Chandrasekhar, Esther Duflo, Matthew Jackson and Cynthia Kinnan

28364: Double-Robust Identification for Causal Panel Data Models

Dmitry Arkhangelsky and Guido Imbens

28363: Smart(Phone) Investing? A within Investor-time Analysis of New Technologies and Trading Behavior

Ankit Kalda, Benjamin Loos, Alessandro Previtero and Andreas Hackethal

28362: Rethinking How We Score Capital Gains Tax Reform

Natasha Sarin, Lawrence Summers, Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick

28361: Longevity Perceptions and Saving Decisions during the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Experimental Investigation

Abigail Hurwitz, Olivia Mitchell and Orly Sade

28360: COVID-19 Disruptions Disproportionately Affect Female Academics

Tatyana Deryugina, Olga Shurchkov and Jenna Stearns

28359: Populism, Protectionism, and Political Instability

Tyler Daun, Sebastian Galiani and Gustavo Torrens

28358: Living and Dying in America: An Essay on Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism

Christopher Ruhm

28357: Government and Private Household Debt Relief during COVID-19

Susan F. Cherry, Erica Xuewei Jiang, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski and Amit Seru

28356: Do Global Pandemics Matter for Stock Prices? Lessons from the 1918 Spanish Flu

Marco Del Angel, Caroline Fohlin and Marc Weidenmier

28355: Private and Social Returns to R&D: Drug Development and Demographics

Efraim Benmelech, Janice Eberly, Joshua L. Krieger and Dimitris Papanikolaou

28354: Hit Harder, Recover Slower? Unequal Employment Effects of the Covid-19 Shock

Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee, Minsung Park and Yongseok Shin

28353: Examining Income Expectations in the College and Early Post-college Periods: New Distributional Tests of Rational Expectations

Thomas Crossley, Yifan Gong, Todd Stinebrickner and Ralph Stinebrickner

28352: Urban Specialisation; from Sectoral to Functional

Antoine Gervais, James Markusen and Anthony Venables

28351: Zoning and Segregation in Urban Economic History

Allison Shertzer, Tate Twinam and Randall Walsh

28350: Common Ownership and Competition in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry

Matthew Backus, Christopher Conlon and Michael Sinkinson

28349: Private and Public Investments in Biomedical Research

Maya M. Durvasula, Lisa Ouellette and Heidi Williams

28348: The Asset Pricing Implications of Plausible Deniability

Kerry Back, Bruce I. Carlin and Seyed Mohammad Kazempour

28347: Chaos and Unpredictability in Dynamic Social Problems

Marco Battaglini

28346: Keynesian Production Networks and the Covid-19 Crisis: A Simple Benchmark

David Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi

28345: The Supply-Side Effects of Monetary Policy

David Baqaee, Emmanuel Farhi and Kunal Sangani

28344: Africa's Manufacturing Puzzle: Evidence from Tanzanian and Ethiopian Firms

Xinshen Diao, Mia Ellis, Margaret McMillan and Dani Rodrik

28343: Students' Heterogeneous Preferences and the Uneven Spatial Distribution of Colleges

Chao Fu, Junjie Guo, Adam J. Smith and Alan T. Sorensen

28342: The Globalization of Postsecondary Education: The Role of International Students in the US Higher Education System

John Bound, Breno Braga, Gaurav Khanna and Sarah Turner

28341: No-fault Default, Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, and Financial Institutions

Robert Merton and Richard Thakor

28340: Recipes and Economic Growth: A Combinatorial March Down an Exponential Tail

Charles Jones

28339: Globalization and Global Crises: Rest of the World vs. Israel

Assaf Razin

28338: Do Financial Concerns Make Workers Less Productive?

Supreet Kaur, Sendhil Mullainathan, Suanna Oh and Frank Schilbach

28337: Place-Based Redistribution

Cecile Gaubert, Patrick Kline, Damián Vergara and Danny Yagan

28336: Personnel Management and School Productivity: Evidence from India

Renata Lemos, Karthik Muralidharan and Daniela Scur

28335: The Economics of Crisis Innovation Policy: A Historical Perspective

Daniel Gross and Bhaven Sampat

28334: Family Spillover Effects of Marginal Diagnoses: The Case of ADHD

Petra Persson, Xinyao Qiu and Maya Rossin-Slater

28333: Price Indices and the Value of Innovation with Heterogenous Patients

Claudio Lucarelli, Sean Nicholson and Nicholas Tilipman

28332: The Globalization of Refugee Flows

Xavier Devictor, Quy-Toan Do and Andrei Levchenko

28331: The Behavioral Foundations of Default Effects: Theory and Evidence from Medicare Part D

Zarek Brot-Goldberg, Timothy Layton, Boris Vabson and Adelina Yanyue Wang

28330: How do Physicians Respond to Malpractice Allegations? Evidence from Florida Emergency Departments

Caitlin Carroll, David Cutler and Anupam Jena

28329: Wealth Trajectories Across Key Milestones: Longitudinal Evidence from Life-Course Transitions

Gopi Goda and Jialu Liu Streeter

28328: Machine Learning and Perceived Age Stereotypes in Job Ads: Evidence from an Experiment

Ian Burn, Daniel Firoozi, Daniel Ladd and David Neumark