Direct and indirect effects of vaccines: Evidence from COVID-19

Seth Freedman, Daniel W. Sacks, Kosali Simon and Coady Wing

No 30550, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We estimate direct and indirect vaccine effectiveness, and assess how far the infection-reducing externality extends from the vaccinated, a key input to policy decisions. Our empirical strategy uses nearly universal microdata from a single state and relies on the six-month delay between 12- and 11 year-old COVID vaccine eligibility. Vaccination reduces cases by 80 percent, the direct effect. This protection spills over to close contacts, producing a household-level indirect effect about half as large as the direct effect. However, indirect effects do not extend to schoolmates. Our results highlight vaccine reach as an important aspect of policy towards infectious disease.

JEL-codes: I0 I28 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea and nep-ure
Note: EH
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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