NBER Working Papers

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32180: Tax Policy and Investment in a Global Economy

Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Matthew Smith, Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick

32179: Do For-Profit Hospitals Cream-Skim Patients? Evidence from Inpatient Psychiatric Care in California

Donghoon Lee, Anirban Basu, Jerome A. Dugan and Pinar Karaca-Mandic

32178: The IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): Explained, Evaluated, Replaced

Ivo Welch

32177: Diversity and Discrimination in the Classroom

Dan Anderberg, Gordon Dahl, Christina Felfe, Helmut Rainer and Thomas Siedler

32176: The Secular Decline of Bank Balance Sheet Lending

Greg Buchak, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski and Amit Seru

32175: From Dominant to Producer Currency Pricing: Dynamics of Chilean Exports

Jose De Gregorio, Pablo Garcia Silva, Emiliano Luttini and Marco Rojas

32174: Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies

Bada Han, Rashad Ahmed, Joshua Aizenman and Yothin Jinjarak

32173: The value of forecasts: Experimental evidence from India

Fiona Burlig, Amir Jina, Erin M. Kelley, Gregory V. Lane and Harshil Sahai

32172: The Slanted-L Phillips Curve

Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti Eggertsson

32171: Competitive Job Seekers: When Sharing Less Leaves Firms at a Loss

Gaurav Chiplunkar, Erin M. Kelley and Gregory V. Lane

32170: Do Information Frictions and Corruption Perceptions Kill Competition? A Field Experiment On Public Procurement in Uganda

Emanuele Colonnelli, Francesco Loiacono, Edwin Muhumuza and Edoardo Teso

32169: Demand Shocks as Technology Shocks

Yan Bai, José-Víctor Ríos-Rull and Kjetil Storesletten

32168: Climate Policy Reform Options in 2025

John Bistline, Kimberly Clausing, Neil Mehrotra, James Stock and Catherine Wolfram

32167: Do Medical Treatments Work for Work? Evidence from Breast Cancer Patients

N. Meltem Daysal, William Evans, Mikkel Hasse Pedersen and Mircea Trandafir

32166: On the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Income and Consumption Heterogeneity

Minsu Chang and Frank Schorfheide

32165: Early Childhood Intervention for the Poor: Long Term Outcomes

Alison Andrew, Orazio Attanasio, Britta Augsburg, Lina Cardona-Sosa, Monimalika Day, Michele Giannola, Sally Grantham-McGregor, Pamela Jervis, Costas Meghir and Marta Rubio-Codina

32164: Heterogeneity, Uncertainty and Learning: Semiparametric Identification and Estimation

Jackson Bunting, Paul Diegert and Arnaud Maurel

32163: The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly

Marijn Bolhuis, Judd N. L. Cramer, Karl Oskar Schulz and Lawrence Summers

32162: English Language Requirement and Educational Inequality: Evidence from 16 Million College Applicants in China

Hongbin Li, Lingsheng Meng, Kai Mu and Shaoda Wang

32161: ChatGPT and Corporate Policies

Manish Jha, Jialin Qian, Michael Weber and Baozhong Yang

32160: The Long-term Effects of Inflation on Inflation Expectations

Fabio Braggion, Felix von Meyerinck, Nic Schaub and Michael Weber

32159: On Digital Currencies

Harald Uhlig

32158: How Do Voters Respond to Welfare Vis-a-Vis Public Good Programs? Theory and Evidence of Political Clientelism

Pranab Bardhan, Sandip Mitra, Dilip Mookherjee and Anusha Nath

32157: Declining Clientelism of Welfare Benefits? Targeting and Political Competition based Evidence from an Indian state

Pushkar Maitra, Sandip Mitra, Dilip Mookherjee and Sujata Visaria

32156: Content Moderation with Opaque Policies

Scott Kominers and Jesse Shapiro

32155: Information-Based Pricing in Specialized Lending

Kristian Blickle, Zhiguo He, Jing Huang and Cecilia Parlatore

32154: Gender Differences in Negotiations and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from an Information Intervention with College Students

Patricia Cortes, Jacob French, Jessica Pan and Basit Zafar

32153: Taxing Top Wealth: Migration Responses and their Aggregate Economic Implications

Katrine Jakobsen, Henrik Kleven, Jonas Kolsrud, Camille Landais and Mathilde Muñoz

32152: Smooth Diagnostic Expectations

Francesco Bianchi, Cosmin Ilut and Hikaru Saijo

32151: The Essential Role of Altruism in Medical Decision Making

Paul Gertler and Ada Kwan

32150: Trade War and Peace: U.S.-China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015–2050

George Alessandria, Shafaat Khan, Armen Khederlarian, Kim Ruhl and Joseph Steinberg

32149: A Cognitive Foundation for Perceiving Uncertainty

Aislinn Bohren, Josh Hascher, Alex Imas, Michael Ungeheuer and Martin Weber

32148: Understanding the Demand-Side of an Illegal Market: Prohibition of Menthol Cigarettes

Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios, Grace N. Phillips, Revathy Suryanarayana, Hua Wang and Sen Zeng

32147: Misallocation and Asset Prices

Winston Dou, Yan Ji, Di Tian and Pengfei Wang

32146: Data, Privacy Laws and Firm Production: Evidence from the GDPR

Mert Demirer, Diego J. Jiménez Hernández, Dean Li and Sida Peng

32145: Climate Change, Population Growth, and Population Pressure

J. Vernon Henderson, Bo Yeon Jang, Adam Storeygard and David Weil

32144: Labor Migration, Capital Accumulation, and the Structure of Rural Labor Markets

Taryn Dinkelman, Grace Kumchulesi and Martine Mariotti

32143: Technology Regulation Reconsidered: The Effects of Certificate of Need Policies on the Quantity and Quality of Diagnostic Imaging

Jill Horwitz, Austin Nichols, Carrie Colla and David Cutler

32142: Invoice Currency Choice in Intra-Firm Trade: A Transaction-Level Analysis of Japanese Automobile Exports

Taiyo Yoshimi, Uraku Yoshimoto, Kiyotaka Sato, Takatoshi Ito, Junko Shimizu and Yushi Yoshida

32141: How Managers Can Use Purchaser Performance Information to Improve Procurement Efficiency

Pablo Celhay, Paul Gertler, Marcelo Olivares and Raimundo Undurraga

32140: Applying AI to Rebuild Middle Class Jobs

David Autor

32139: Out-group Penalties in Refugee Assistance: A Survey Experiment

Cristina Cattaneo, Daniela Grieco, Nicola Lacetera and Mario Macis

32138: Tariff Rate Uncertainty and the Structure of Supply Chains

Sebastian Heise, Justin Pierce, Georg Schaur and Peter Schott

32137: Monetary Policy Wedges and the Long-term Liabilities of Households and Firms

Jules van Binsbergen and Marco Grotteria

32136: The Government Patent Register: A New Resource for Measuring U.S. Government-Funded Patenting

Daniel Gross and Bhaven Sampat

32135: Discrete Choice, Complete Markets, and Equilibrium

Simon Mongey and Michael Waugh

32134: Behavioral Responses to Wealth Taxation: Evidence from Colombia

Juliana Londoño-Vélez and Javier Avila-Mahecha

32133: What Drives U.S. Import Price Inflation?

Mary Amiti, Oleg Itskhoki and David Weinstein

32132: Making a Song and Dance About It: The Effectiveness of Teaching Children Vocabulary with Animated Music Videos

Ariel Kalil, Susan Mayer, Philip Oreopoulos and Rohen Shah

32131: Populism, Polarization and Green Investment

Anders Anderson and David Robinson

32130: Declining Responsiveness at the Establishment Level: Sources and Productivity Implications

Russell Cooper, John Haltiwanger and Jonathan Willis

32129: Exorbitant Privilege and the Sustainability of US Public Debt

Jason Choi, Duong Q. Dang, Rishabh Kirpalani and Diego J. Perez

32128: The Role of International Financial Integration in Monetary Policy Transmission

Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie and Ji Zhang

32127: The Role of Non-Pecuniary Considerations: Location Decisions of College Graduates from Low Income Backgrounds

Yifan Gong, Todd Stinebrickner, Ralph Stinebrickner and Yuxi Yao

32126: Education Inequalities in Latin America and the Caribbean

Raquel Fernandez, Carmen Pages, Miguel Szekely and Ivonne Acevedo

32125: The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Algorithms

Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan and Ashesh Rambachan

32124: Credible Numbers: A Procedure for Reporting Statistical Precision in Parameter Estimates

Nicolas Astier and Frank A. Wolak

32123: The Determinants of Declining Internal Migration

William Olney and Owen Thompson

32122: Experimental Estimates of College Coaching on Postsecondary Re-enrollment

Lesley Turner and Oded Gurantz

32121: Did Violence Against Asian-Americans Rise in 2020? Evidence from a Novel Approach to Measuring Potentially Racially-Motivated Attacks

Aleksei Knorre, Britte Van Tiem and Aaron Chalfin

32120: Competitive Effects of Charter Schools

David Figlio, Cassandra Hart and Krzysztof Karbownik

32119: The Consequences of Abuse, Neglect and Cyber-bullying on the Wellbeing of the Young

David Blanchflower and Alex Bryson

32118: Event-Studies with a Continuous Treatment

Brantly Callaway, Andrew Goodman-Bacon and Pedro Sant'Anna

32117: Difference-in-differences with a Continuous Treatment

Brantly Callaway, Andrew Goodman-Bacon and Pedro Sant'Anna

32116: How Do Surrogates Make Treatment Decisions for Patients with Dementia? An Experimental Survey Study

Lauren Nicholas, Kenneth M. Langa, Scott D. Halpern and Mario Macis

32115: Whatever-It-Takes Policymaking during the Pandemic

Kathryn Dominguez and Andrea Foschi

32114: Evolution of Debt Financing toward Less-Regulated Financial Intermediaries in the United States

Isil Erel and Eduard Inozemtsev

32113: Information-Constrained Coordination of Economic Behavior

Guy Aridor, Rava Azeredo da Silveira and Michael Woodford

32112: Campaigning Against Populism Emotions and Information in Real Election Campaigns

Cesi Cruz, Julien Labonne and Francesco Trebbi

32111: Difference-in-Differences in the Marketplace

Robert Minton and Casey Mulligan

32110: Lives vs. Livelihoods: The Impact of the Great Recession on Mortality and Welfare

Amy Finkelstein, Matthew Notowidigdo, Frank Schilbach and Jonathan Zhang

32109: Immigration Enforcement and Public Safety

Felipe M. Gonçalves, Elisa Jácome and Emily K. Weisburst

32108: Does Defensive Gun Use Deter Crime?

John Donohue, Alex Oktay, Amy L. Zhang and Matthew Benavides

32107: Keeping Up with the Jansens: Causal Peer Effects on Household Spending, Beliefs and Happiness

Maarten van Rooij, Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, Bernardo Candia and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

32106: Copyright Policy Options for Generative Artificial Intelligence

Joshua Gans

32105: How Learning About Harms Impacts the Optimal Rate of Artificial Intelligence Adoption

Joshua Gans

32104: Gender Inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean

Inés Berniell, Raquel Fernandez and Sonya Krutikova

32103: Effects of Childhood Cognitive and Behavioral Disabilities on Adult Economic Outcomes

Hope Corman, Kelly Noonan and Nancy Reichman

32102: Protective Behavior and Life Insurance

Abigail Hurwitz, Olivia Mitchell and Orly Sade

32101: CEO Compensation and Cash-Flow Shocks: Evidence from Changes in Environmental Regulations

Seungho Choi, Ross Levine, Raphael Jonghyeon Park and Simon Xu

32100: Does Pension Automatic Enrollment Increase Debt? Evidence from a Large-Scale Natural Experiment

John Beshears, Matthew Blakstad, James Choi, Christopher Firth, John Gathergood, David Laibson, Richard Notley, Jesal D. Sheth, Will Sandbrook and Neil Stewart

32099: Platform Information Provision and Consumer Search: A Field Experiment

Lu Fang, Yanyou Chen, Chiara Farronato, Zhe Yuan and Yitong Wang

32098: The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory

Xiwen Bai, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Yiliang Li and Francesco Zanetti

32097: Optimal Trade Policy with International Technology Diffusion

Yan Bai, Keyu Jin, Dan Lu and Hanxi Wang

32096: Intra-Household Insurance and the Intergenerational Transmission of Income Risk

Francesco Agostinelli, Domenico Ferraro, Xincheng Qiu and Giuseppe Sorrenti

32095: Do Double Majors Face Less Risk? An Analysis of Human Capital Diversification

Andrew Hanks, Shengjun Jiang, Xuechao Qian, Bo Wang and Bruce Weinberg

32094: Non-Linear Inflation Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies

Andres Blanco, Corina Boar, Callum Jones and Virgiliu Midrigan

32093: Cash Transfers for Child Development: Experimental Evidence from India

Jeffrey Weaver, Sandip Sukhtankar, Paul Niehaus and Karthik Muralidharan

32092: Convenience Yields and Exchange Rate Puzzles

Zhengyang Jiang, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Hanno Lustig and Jialu Sun

32091: Power Flows: Transmission Lines, Allocative Efficiency, and Corporate Profits

Catherine Hausman

32090: Policy Responses to Tax Competition: An Introduction

David Agrawal, James Poterba and Owen Zidar

32089: Customer Data Access and Fintech Entry: Early Evidence from Open Banking

Tania Babina, Saleem Bahaj, Greg Buchak, Filippo De Marco, Angus Foulis, Will Gornall, Francesco Mazzola and Tong Yu

32088: Energy Transitions in Regulated Markets

Gautam Gowrisankaran, Ashley Langer and Mar Reguant

32087: Constructing Quarterly Chinese Time Series Usable for Macroeconomic Analysis

Kaiji Chen, Patrick Higgins and Tao Zha

32086: The Economic Impact of Heritable Physical Traits: Hot Parents, Rich Kid?

Daniel Hamermesh and Anwen Zhang

32085: Value Chain Microfinance

Lorenzo Casaburi and Jack Willis

32084: The Predictive Power of the Term Spread and Financial Variables for Economic Activity across Countries

Menzie Chinn and Laurent Ferrara

32083: The Effects of Immigration in a Developing Country: Brazil in the Age of Mass Migration

David Escamilla-Guerrero, Andrea Papadia and Ariell Zimran

32082: Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States

David Autor, Anne Beck, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson

32081: Export-Platform FDI: Cannibalization or Complementarity?

Pol Antras, Evgenii Fadeev, Teresa Fort and Felix Tintelnot