NBER Working Papers

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27211: Heterogeneous Actions, Beliefs, Constraints and Risk Tolerance During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Ying Fan, Yesim Orhun and Dana Turjeman

27210: Collateralized Marriage

Jeanne Lafortune and Corinne Low

27209: Housing Search Frictions: Evidence from Detailed Search Data and a Field Experiment

Peter Bergman, Eric W. Chan and Adam Kapor

27208: Corporate Hiring under COVID-19: Labor Market Concentration, Downskilling, and Income Inequality

Murillo Campello, Gaurav Kankanhalli and Pradeep Muthukrishnan

27207: Can the Covid Bailouts Save the Economy?

Vadim Elenev, Tim Landvoigt and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

27206: Innovation, Growth and Structural Change in American Agriculture

Julian Alston and Philip Pardey

27205: Do Environmental Markets Cause Environmental Injustice? Evidence from California's Carbon Market

Danae Hernandez-Cortes and Kyle Meng

27204: Cigarette Taxes and Smoking in the Long Run

Andrew Friedson and Daniel Rees

27203: Patents, Innovation, and Development

Bronwyn H. Hall

27202: Modeling the Impacts of Agricultural Support Policies on Emissions from Agriculture

David Laborde Debucquet, Abdullah Mamun, Will Martin, Valeria Pineiro and Robert Vos

27201: Urbanization in the Developing World: Too Early or Too Slow?

J. Vernon Henderson and Matthew Turner

27200: Can the World’s Poor Protect Themselves from the New Coronavirus?

Caitlin Brown, Martin Ravallion and Dominique van de Walle

27199: Foreign Exchange Order Flow as a Risk Factor

Craig Burnside, Mario Cerrato and Zhekai Zhang

27198: Identification of Time-Inconsistent Models: The Case of Insecticide Treated Nets

Aprajit Mahajan, Christian Michel and Alessandro Tarozzi

27197: Correcting Estimates of Electric Vehicle Emissions Abatement: Implications for Climate Policy

Erich Muehlegger and David Rapson

27196: Males at the Tails: How Socioeconomic Status Shapes the Gender Gap

David Autor, David Figlio, Krzysztof Karbownik, Jeffrey Roth and Melanie Wasserman

27195: Interest Rates and the Design of Financial Contracts

Michael Roberts and Michael Schwert

27194: Issue Salience and Political Stereotypes

Pedro Bordalo, Marco Tabellini and David Yang

27193: The Declining Worker Power Hypothesis: An explanation for the recent evolution of the American economy

Anna Stansbury and Lawrence H. Summers

27192: Language Barriers, Technology Adoption and Productivity: Evidence from Agriculture in India

Apoorv Gupta, Jacopo Ponticelli and Andrea Tesei

27191: COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows

Cem Çakmaklı, Selva Demiralp, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Sevcan Yesiltas and Muhammed A. Yildirim

27190: How Sticky is Retirement Behavior in the U.S.? Responses to Changes in the Full Retirement Age

ManasI Deshpande, Itzik Fadlon and Colin Gray

27189: Trust and Insurance Contracts

Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes and Andrei Shleifer

27188: Public Procurement in Law and Practice

Erica Bosio, Simeon Djankov, Edward Glaeser and Andrei Shleifer

27187: The Relationship between In-Person Voting and COVID-19: Evidence from the Wisconsin Primary

Chad Cotti, Bryan Engelhardt, Joshua Foster, Erik Nesson and Paul S. Niekamp

27186: Confidence Management in Tournaments

Shanglyu Deng, Hanming Fang, Qiang Fu and Zenan Wu

27185: Accounting for Global COVID-19 Diffusion Patterns, January-April 2020

Yothin Jinjarak, Rashad Ahmed, Sameer Nair-Desai, Weining Xin and Joshua Aizenman

27184: The Size and Life-cycle Growth of Plants: The Role of Productivity, Demand and Wedges

Marcela Eslava and John C. Haltiwanger

27183: Launching with a Parachute: The Gig Economy and New Business Formation

John Barrios, Yael V. Hochberg and Hanyi Yi

27182: Latent Dirichlet Analysis of Categorical Survey Expectations

Evan M. Munro and Serena Ng

27181: Innovation in the U.S. Government

Joshua R. Bruce and John M. de Figueiredo

27180: The Incidence of Foreign Market Accessibility on Farmland Rental Rates

Jisang Yu, Nelson Villoria and Nathan Hendricks

27179: Savings and Saving Rates: Up or Down?

Guillermo Ordonez and Facundo Piguillem

27178: Deliberate Surrender? The Impact of Interwar Indian Protection

Vellore Arthi, Markus Lampe, Ashwin R Nair and Kevin O'Rourke

27177: The Economic Impact of Access to Public Four-Year Colleges

Jonathan Smith, Joshua Goodman and Michael Hurwitz

27176: Estimating Probabilities of Success of Vaccine and Other Anti-Infective Therapeutic Development Programs

Andrew Lo, Kien Wei Siah and Chi Heem Wong

27175: Bayesian Adaptive Clinical Trials for Anti‐Infective Therapeutics during Epidemic Outbreaks

Shomesh Chaudhuri, Andrew Lo, Danying Xiao and Qingyang Xu

27174: The Influence of Early Life Health Conditions on Life Course Health

Manuel Flores and Barbara Wolfe

27173: Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Outpatient Providers in the US

Pinka Chatterji and Yue Li

27172: Optimal Contracting with Altruistic Agents: A Structural Model of Medicare Payments for Dialysis Drugs

Martin Gaynor, Nirav Mehta and Seth Richards-Shubik

27171: China's Model of Managing the Financial System

Markus Brunnermeier, Michael Sockin and Wei Xiong

27170: The Accumulation of Human and Market Capital in the United States: The Long View, 1948–2013

Barbara M. Fraumeni, Michael S. Christian and Jon D. Samuels

27169: The Contribution of Chinese Diaspora Researchers to Global Science and China's Catching Up in Scientific Research

Qingnan Xie and Richard Freeman

27168: When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed’s Response

Valentin Haddad, Alan Moreira and Tyler Muir

27167: Using Disasters to Estimate the Impact of Uncertainty

Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Stephen Terry

27166: Reopening Under COVID-19: What to Watch For

Jeffrey E. Harris

27165: The Economics of Time-Limited Development Options: The Case of Oil and Gas Leases

Evan M. Herrnstadt, Ryan Kellogg and Eric Lewis

27164: The Marginal Net Taxation of Americans’ Labor Supply

David Altig, Alan Auerbach, Laurence Kotlikoff, Elias Ilin and Victor Ye

27163: Robbing Peter to Pay Paul: Understanding How State Tax Credits Impact Charitable Giving

Chandrayee Chatterjee, James Cox, Michael Price and Florian Rundhammer

27162: College Achievement and Attainment Gaps: Evidence from West Point Cadets

Dario Cestau, Dennis Epple, Richard Romano, Holger Sieg and Carl Wojtaszek

27161: When Coercive Economies Fail: The Political Economy of the US South After the Boll Weevil

James Feigenbaum, Soumyajit Mazumder and Cory B. Smith

27160: Earnings Expectations in the COVID Crisis

Augustin Landier and David Thesmar

27159: The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession

Tomaz Cajner, Leland Crane, Ryan Decker, John Grigsby, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Erik Hurst, Christopher Kurz and Ahu Yildirmaz

27158: Zombie Credit and (Dis-)Inflation: Evidence from Europe

Viral Acharya, Matteo Crosignani, Tim Eisert and Christian Eufinger

27157: Poverty, Depression, and Anxiety: Causal Evidence and Mechanisms

Matthew Ridley, Gautam Rao, Frank Schilbach and Vikram H. Patel

27156: The Winners and Losers of Immigration: Evidence from Linked Historical Data

Joseph Price, Christian vom Lehn and Riley Wilson

27155: Prospect Theory and Stock Market Anomalies

Nicholas C. Barberis, Lawrence Jin and Baolian Wang

27154: The Gender Gap in Tech & Competitive Work Environments? Field Experimental Evidence from an Internet-of-Things Product Development Platform

Kevin Boudreau and Nilam Kaushik

27153: Leader Value Added: Assessing the Growth Contribution of Individual National Leaders

William Easterly and Steven Pennings

27152: Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis

David Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi

27151: Machine Learning in Gravity Models: An Application to Agricultural Trade

Munisamy Gopinath, Feras A. Batarseh and Jayson Beckman

27150: How Resilient is Venture-Backed Innovation? Evidence from Four Decades of U.S. Patenting

Sabrina T. Howell, Josh Lerner, Ramana Nanda and Richard R. Townsend

27149: Systemic Credit Freezes in Financial Lending Networks

Daron Acemoglu, Asuman Ozdaglar, James Siderius and Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi

27148: Trade in Technology: A Potential Solution to the Food Security Challenges of the 21st Century

Thomas W. Hertel, Uris L.C. Baldos and Keith Fuglie

27147: The Impact of Retaliatory Tariffs on Agricultural and Food Trade

Colin Carter and Sandro Steinbach

27146: Kill Zone

Sai Krishna Kamepalli, Raghuram Rajan and Luigi Zingales

27145: Innovation and Entrepreneurship in the Energy Sector

David Popp, Jacquelyn Pless, Ivan Haščič and Nick Johnstone

27144: Measuring Real Consumption and CPI Bias under Lockdown Conditions

Walter Diewert and Kevin Fox

27143: Paying It Backward and Forward: Expanding Access to Convalescent Plasma Therapy Through Market Design

Scott Kominers, Parag Pathak, Tayfun Sönmez and Utku Unver

27142: The Use of Group-Level Approaches to Environmental and Natural Resource Policy

Matthew Kotchen and Kathleen Segerson

27141: The Cost of the Covid-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber

27140: Entry vs. Rents: Aggregation with Economies of Scale

David Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi

27139: The Darwinian Returns to Scale

David Baqaee, Emmanuel Farhi and Kunal Sangani

27138: Paid sick-leave and physical mobility: Evidence from the United States during a pandemic

Martin Andersen, Johanna Maclean, Michael Pesko and Kosali I. Simon

27137: COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock

Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis

27136: What Keeps Stablecoins Stable?

Richard Lyons and Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj

27135: Expected Health Effects of Reduced Air Pollution from COVID-19 Social Distancing

Steve Cicala, Stephen P. Holland, Erin Mansur, Nicholas Muller and Andrew Yates

27134: Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity

Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf and Farzad Saidi

27133: Trade and Welfare (Across Local Labor Markets)

Ryan Kim and Jonathan Vogel

27132: Determinants of Disparities in Covid-19 Job Losses

Laura Montenovo, Xuan Jiang, Felipe Lozano Rojas, Ian M. Schmutte, Kosali I. Simon, Bruce Weinberg and Coady Wing

27131: The First Weeks of the Coronavirus Crisis: Who Got Hit, When and Why? Evidence from Norway

Annette Alstadsæter, Bernt Bratsberg, Gaute Eielsen, Wojciech Kopczuk, Simen Markussen, Oddbjørn Raaum and Knut Røed

27130: Does Biology Drive Child Penalties? Evidence from Biological and Adoptive Families

Henrik Kleven, Camille Landais and Jakob Egholt Søgaard

27129: International Equity and Debt Flows: Composition, Crisis, and Controls

Chang Ma and Shang-Jin Wei

27128: Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Charles Jones

27127: Is the Cure Worse than the Problem Itself? Immediate Labor Market Effects of COVID-19 Case Rates and School Closures in the U.S

Felipe Lozano Rojas, Xuan Jiang, Laura Montenovo, Kosali I. Simon, Bruce Weinberg and Coady Wing

27126: Does Information Disclosure Improve Consumer Knowledge? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment of Restaurant Menu Calorie Labels

John Cawley, Alex M. Susskind and Barton Willage

27125: The Effects of Need-Based Financial Aid on Employment and Earnings: Experimental Evidence from the Fund for Wisconsin Scholars

Deven E. Carlson, Alex Schmidt, Sarah Souders and Barbara Wolfe

27124: Covid-19, Shelter-In Place Strategies and Tipping

Zhihan Cui, Geoffrey Heal and Howard Kunreuther

27123: The Wealth of Generations, With Special Attention to the Millennials

William Gale, Hilary Gelfond, Jason J. Fichtner and Benjamin H. Harris

27122: The Macroeconomics of Automation: Data, Theory, and Policy Analysis

Nir Jaimovich, Itay Saporta-Eksten, Henry E. Siu and Yaniv Yedid-Levi

27121: COVID-19 and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Contagion

Robert Pindyck

27120: The Value of Health Insurance during a Crisis: Effects of Medicaid Implementation on Pandemic Influenza Mortality

Karen Clay, Joshua Lewis, Edson Severnini and Xiao Wang

27119: A Note on Long-Run Persistence of Public Health Outcomes in Pandemics

Peter Lin and Christopher Meissner

27118: Transfers vs Credit Policy: Macroeconomic Policy Trade-offs during Covid-19

Saki Bigio, Mengbo Zhang and Eduardo Zilberman

27117: The Effect of Changes in Alcohol Tax Differentials on Alcohol Consumption

Markus Gehrsitz, Henry Saffer and Michael Grossman

27116: The Fiscal Theory of Price Level with a Bubble

Markus Brunnermeier, Sebastian A. Merkel and Yuliy Sannikov

27115: Debt and Taxes in Eight U.S. Wars and Two Insurrections

George J. Hall and Thomas Sargent

27114: The Effect of the U.S.-China Trade War on U.S. Investment

Mary Amiti, Sang Hoon Kong and David Weinstein

27113: The Macroprudential Role of Stock Markets

Kyriakos T. Chousakos, Gary Gorton and Guillermo Ordonez

27112: Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength

Francesco Bianchi, Renato Faccini and Leonardo Melosi