NBER Working Papers

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29411: A Child Support Framework Accounting for Parenting Time and Half-Siblings

Martin Kulldorff and Jay Bhattacharya

29410: CLO Performance

Larry Cordell, Michael Roberts and Michael Schwert

29409: Moment Inequalities and Partial Identification in Industrial Organization

Brendan Kline, Ariel Pakes and Elie Tamer

29408: Preemptive Entry and Technology Diffusion: The Market for Drive-in Theaters

Ricard Gil, Jean-François Houde, Shilong Sun and Yuya Takahashi

29407: Mental Health Therapy as a Core Strategy for Increasing Human Capital: Evidence from Ghana

Nathan Barker, Gharad T. Bryan, Dean Karlan, Angela Ofori-Atta and Christopher Udry

29406: Market Segmentation and Competition in Health Insurance

Michael J. Dickstein, Kate Ho and Nathaniel D. Mark

29405: The Marginal Value of Public Pension Wealth: Evidence from Border House Prices

Darren Aiello, Asaf Bernstein, Mahyar Kargar, Ryan Lewis and Michael Schwert

29404: The Economic Consequences of the Opium War

Wolfgang Keller and Carol H. Shiue

29403: Financial Incentives and Other Nudges Do Not Increase COVID-19 Vaccinations among the Vaccine Hesitant

Tom Chang, Mireille Jacobson, Manisha Shah, Rajiv Pramanik and Samir B. Shah

29402: Policy Experimentation in China: the Political Economy of Policy Learning

Shaoda Wang and David Yang

29401: On the Persistence of the China Shock

David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson

29400: The Rise of Pass-Throughs and the Decline of the Labor Share

Matthew Smith, Danny Yagan, Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick

29399: The Geography of Job Creation and Job Destruction

Moritz Kuhn, Iourii Manovskii and Xincheng Qiu

29398: The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures

Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, Dirk Krueger, André Kurmann, Etienne Lalé, Alexander Ludwig and Irina Popova

29397: Bank Runs, Fragility, and Credit Easing

Manuel Amador and Javier Bianchi

29396: Blockchain Analysis of the Bitcoin Market

Igor Makarov and Antoinette Schoar

29395: The Effect of Free School Meals on Household Food Purchases: Evidence from the Community Eligibility Provision

Michelle M. Marcus and Katherine G. Yewell

29394: It All Starts with Beliefs: Addressing the Roots of Educational Inequities by Shifting Parental Beliefs

John List, Julie Pernaudet and Dana Suskind

29393: Who Pays Sin Taxes? Understanding the Overlapping Burdens of Corrective Taxes

Christopher Conlon, Nirupama Rao and Yinan Wang

29392: Inflation, Interest, and the Secular Rise in Wealth Inequality in the U.S.: Is the Fed Responsible?

Edward N. Wolff

29391: Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices?

Daniel Greenwald and Adam Guren

29390: The Human Side of Structural Transformation

Tommaso Porzio, Federico Rossi and Gabriella V. Santangelo

29389: Interpreting the Will of the People: A Positive Analysis of Ordinal Preference Aggregation

Sandro Ambuehl and B. Douglas Bernheim

29388: The Financial Fragility of For-profit Hospitals: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Ge Bai, Daniel Jiménez, Phillip Phan, Luis Quintero, Alessandro Rebucci and Xian Sun

29387: Telemigration and Development: On the Offshorability of Teleworkable Jobs

Richard Baldwin and Jonathan Dingel

29386: Consumption Smoothing or Consumption Binging? The effects of government-led consumer credit expansion in Brazil

Gabriel Garber, Atif Mian, Jacopo Ponticelli and Amir Sufi

29385: Immediate and Longer-Term Housing Market Effects of a Major U.S. Airport Closure

Jeffrey P. Cohen, Cletus Coughlin, Jonas Crews and Stephen Ross

29384: School Food Policy Affects Everyone: Retail Responses to the National School Lunch Program

Jessie Handbury and Sarah Moshary

29383: Fleshing Out the Olive? On Income Polarization in China

Martin Ravallion and Shaohua Chen

29382: A (Dynamic) Investigation of Stereotypes, Belief-Updating, and Behavior

Katherine B. Coffman, Paola Ugalde Araya and Basit Zafar

29381: Occupational Choice and the Intergenerational Mobility of Welfare

Corina Boar and Danial Lashkari

29380: Exposures and Behavioral Responses to Wildfire Smoke

Marshall Burke, Sam Heft-Neal, Jessica Li, Anne Driscoll, Patrick Baylis, Matthieu Stigler, Joakim Weill, Jennifer Burney, Jeff Wen, Marissa Childs and Carlos Gould

29379: Predicting the Oil Market

Charles Calomiris, Nida Cakir Melek and Harry Mamaysky

29378: Data Engineering for Cognitive Economics

Andrew Caplin

29377: Pay, Productivity and Management

Nicholas Bloom, Scott Ohlmacher, Cristina Tello-Trillo and Melanie Wallskog

29376: Firms' Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France

Frédérique Savignac, Erwan Gautier, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Olivier Coibion

29375: The Impact of Group Size on Giving Versus Demand for Redistribution

Johanna Mollerstrom, Avner Strulov-Shlain and Dmitry Taubinsky

29374: Top Wealth in America: New Estimates and Implications for Taxing the Rich

Matthew Smith, Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick

29373: The Effect of Medicaid on Care and Outcomes for Chronic Conditions: Evidence from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment

Heidi Allen and Katherine Baicker

29372: The Economics of Walking About and Predicting US Downturns

David Blanchflower and Alex Bryson

29371: Effects of Opioid-Related Policies on Opioid Utilization, Nature of Medical Care, and Duration of Disability

David Neumark and Bogdan Savych

29370: Perceptions and Preferences for Redistribution

Stefanie Stantcheva

29369: A Factor Model For Option Returns

Matthias Buechner and Bryan T. Kelly

29368: Falling Rates and Rising Superstars

Thomas Kroen, Ernest Liu, Atif Mian and Amir Sufi

29367: Market Design

Nikhil Agarwal and Eric Budish

29366: The Anti-Poverty, Targeting, and Labor Supply Effects of Replacing a Child Tax Credit with a Child Allowance

Kevin Corinth, Bruce Meyer, Matthew Stadnicki and Derek Wu

29365: Is Stock Index Membership for Sale?

Kun Li, Xin (Kelly) Liu and Shang-Jin Wei

29364: Lender Automation and Racial Disparities in Credit Access

Sabrina T. Howell, Theresa Kuchler, David Snitkof, Johannes Stroebel and Jun Wong

29363: Misallocation in Indian Agriculture

Marijn Bolhuis, Swapnika R. Rachapalli and Diego Restuccia

29362: Early Childhood Development, Human Capital and Poverty

Orazio Attanasio, Sarah Cattan and Costas Meghir

29361: “Beauty Too Rich for Use”*: Billionaires’ Assets and Attractiveness

Daniel S. Hamermesh and Andrew Leigh

29360: The Political Economy of the COVID-19 Fiscal Stimulus Packages of 2020

Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak, Hien Nguyen and Ilan Noy

29359: The Effects of Taxes on Innovation: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Stefanie Stantcheva

29358: Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice: with Focus on Personalized Medicine

Charles Manski

29357: The Environmental Effects of Economic Production: Evidence from Ecological Observations

Yuanning Liang, Ivan J. Rudik and Eric Zou

29356: A Taste of Their Own Medicine: Guideline Adherence and Access to Expertise

Amy Finkelstein, Petra Persson, Maria Polyakova and Jesse M. Shapiro

29355: Providing Vouchers and Value Information for Already Free Eye Exams Increases Uptake Among a Low-Income Minority Population: A Randomized Trial

Seema Kacker, Mario Macis, Prateek Gajwani and David S. Friedman

29354: Closing the Innovation Gap in Pink and Black

Lisa Cook, Janet Gerson and Jennifer Kuan

29353: College Choice, Private Options, and The Incidence of Public Investment in Higher Education

John Bound and Andrew Simon

29352: Tax Policy Design with Low Interest Rates

Alan Auerbach and William Gale

29351: What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt/Output Ratio? The Dogs that Didn't Bark

Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Xiaolan

29350: Gender Preferences in Job Vacancies and Workplace Gender Diversity

David Card, Fabrizio Colella and Rafael Lalive

29349: Illuminating the Effects of the US-China Tariff War on China's Economy

Davin Chor and Bingjing Li

29348: Outsourcing, Inequality and Aggregate Output

Adrien Bilal and Hugo Lhuillier

29347: Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes

Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

29346: Macroprudential Policy during COVID-19: The Role of Policy Space

Katharina Bergant and Kristin Forbes

29345: From Just in Time, to Just in Case, to Just in Worst-Case: Simple models of a Global Supply Chain under Uncertain Aggregate Shocks

Bomin Jiang, Daniel E. Rigobon and Roberto Rigobon

29344: Business News and Business Cycles

Leland Bybee, Bryan T. Kelly, Asaf Manela and Dacheng Xiu

29343: Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from OECD Estimates of the Natural Rate

Laurence Ball and Joern Onken

29342: Estimating the Net Fiscal Cost of a Child Tax Credit Expansion

Jacob Goldin, Elaine Maag and Katherine Michelmore

29341: The Psychosocial Effects of the Flint Water Crisis on School-Age Children

Sam Trejo, Gloria Yeomans-Maldonado and Brian Jacob

29340: Why do people stay poor?

Clare A. Balboni, Oriana Bandiera, Robin Burgess, Maitreesh Ghatak and Anton Heil

29339: The Economics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poor Countries

Edward Miguel and Ahmed Mobarak

29338: Bayesian Learning

Isaac Baley and Laura Veldkamp

29337: Decrypting New Age International Capital Flows

Clemens Graf von Luckner, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

29336: Exposure, Experience, and Expertise: Why Personal Histories Matter in Economics

Ulrike Malmendier

29335: Tracing Value Added in the Presence of Foreign Direct Investment

Zhi Wang, Shang-Jin Wei, Xinding Yu and Kunfu Zhu

29334: Minimum Wages and Teenage Childbearing: New Estimates Using a Dynamic Difference-in-Differences Approach

Daniel Rees, Joseph J. Sabia and Rebecca Margolit

29333: Creative Destruction, Distance to Frontier, and Economic Development

Michael Peters and Fabrizio Zilibotti

29332: The US Pretrial System: Balancing Individual Rights and Public Interests

Will S. Dobbie and Crystal Yang

29331: Charitable Giving Responses to Education Budgets

Jonathan Meer and Hedieh Tajali

29330: Supply Chain Resilience: Should Policy Promote Diversification or Reshoring?

Gene Grossman, Elhanan Helpman and Hugo Lhuillier

29329: Market Size and Spatial Growth - Evidence from Germany’s Post-War Population Expulsions

Michael Peters

29328: Mortality Rates by College Degree Before and During COVID-19

Anne Case and Angus Deaton

29327: The Global Financial Cycle

Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Helene Rey

29326: Economic Growth and Bank Innovation

Gary Gorton and Ping He

29325: Exposure to Cigarette Taxes as a Teenager and the Persistence of Smoking into Adulthood

Andrew Friedson, Moyan Li, Katherine Meckel, Daniel Rees and Daniel W. Sacks

29324: Circles of Trust: Rival Information in Social Networks

Petra Persson, Nikita Roketskiy and Samuel Lee

29323: Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World

Kristin Forbes, Joseph Gagnon and Christopher Collins

29322: Corporate Culture

Gary Gorton, Jillian Grennan and Alexander K. Zentefis

29321: The Causal Effects of Place on Health and Longevity

Tatyana Deryugina and David Molitor

29320: Environmental Drivers of Agricultural Productivity Growth: CO₂ Fertilization of US Field Crops

Charles Taylor and Wolfram Schlenker

29319: Learning to Use Trade Agreements

Kala Krishna, Carlos Salamanca, Yuta Suzuki and Christian Volpe Martincus

29318: Occupational Licensing and Accountant Quality: Evidence from the 150-Hour Rule

John Barrios

29317: Dynamics of Large Multinationals

Elhanan Helpman and Benjamin C. Niswonger

29316: Refining Set-Identification in VARs through Independence

Thorsten Drautzburg and Jonathan Wright

29315: The Economic Impacts of the US-China Trade War

Pablo Fajgelbaum and Amit Khandelwal

29314: The Role of Trade in Economic Development

David Atkin and Dave Donaldson

29313: Foreign Investors and US Treasuries

Alexandra M. Tabova and Francis E. Warnock

29312: Task Allocation and On-the-job Training

Mariagiovanna Baccara, SangMok Lee and Leeat Yariv