NBER Working Papers

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25511: Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Mauricio Ulate

25510: Storable Votes and Quadratic Voting. An Experiment on Four California Propositions

Alessandra Casella and Luis Sanchez

25509: Immigrant Networking and Collaboration: Survey Evidence from CIC

Sari Pekkala Kerr and William Kerr

25508: Incorporation, and Productivity

Robert Barro and Brian Wheaton

25507: Non-linear Incentives, Worker Productivity, and Firm Profits: Evidence from a Quasi-experiment

Richard Freeman, Wei Huang and Teng Li

25506: Tolerance and Compromise in Social Networks

Garance Genicot

25505: Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth

Ernest Liu, Atif Mian and Amir Sufi

25504: Meta-Analysis for Medical Decisions

Charles Manski

25503: Effects of Photo ID Laws on Registration and Turnout: Evidence from Rhode Island

Francesco Maria Esposito, Diego Focanti and Justine S. Hastings

25502: Employment Structure and the Rise of the Modern Tax System

Anders Jensen

25501: Occupy Government: Democracy and the Dynamics of Personnel Decisions and Public Sector Performance

Klenio Barbosa and Fernando Ferreira

25500: Trends in the Diffusion of Misinformation on Social Media

Hunt Allcott, Matthew Gentzkow and Chuan Yu

25499: Different Strokes for Different Folks: Experimental Evidence on the Effectiveness of Input and Output Incentive Contracts for Health Care Providers with Varying Skills

Manoj Mohanan, Katherine Donato, Grant Miller, Yulya Truskinovsky and Marcos Vera-Hernandez

25498: The Costs and Benefits of Caring: Aggregate Burdens of an Aging Population

Finn Kydland and Nick Pretnar

25497: Naive Learning with Uninformed Agents

Abhijit Banerjee, Emily Breza, Arun Chandrasekhar and Markus Mobius

25496: IQ, Expectations, and Choice

Francesco D’Acunto, Daniel Hoang, Maritta Paloviita and Michael Weber

25495: Does Parental Quality Matter? Evidence on the Transmission of Human Capital Using Variation in Parental Influence from Death, Divorce, and Family Size

Eric Gould, Avi Simhon and Bruce Weinberg

25494: Public Debt Through the Ages

Barry Eichengreen, Asmaa El-Ganainy, Rui Esteves and Kris James Mitchener

25493: Do Tax Cuts Produce More Einsteins? The Impacts of Financial Incentives vs. Exposure to Innovation on the Supply of Inventors

Alex Bell, Raj Chetty, Xavier Jaravel, Neviana Petkova and John van Reenen

25492: Marginal Jobs and Job Surplus: A Test of the Efficiency of Separations

Simon Jäger, Benjamin Schoefer and Josef Zweimüller

25491: Is There a Demand for Reverse Mortgages in China? Evidence from Two Online Surveys

Katja Hanewald, Hazel Bateman, Hanming Fang and Shang Wu

25490: Change and Persistence in the Age of Modernization: Saint-Germain-d'Anxure 1730-1895

Guillaume Blanc and Romain Wacziarg

25489: Does Pollution Drive Achievement? The Effect of Traffic Pollution on Academic Performance

Jennifer Heissel, Claudia Persico and David Simon

25488: The Impact of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from California's Hospital Sector

Mark Duggan, Atul Gupta and Emilie Jackson

25487: The Welfare Effects of Transportation Infrastructure Improvements

Treb Allen and Costas Arkolakis

25486: Does School Lunch Fill the “SNAP Gap” at the End of the Month?

Agustina Laurito and Amy Schwartz

25485: Uncertainty about Future Income: Initial Beliefs and Resolution During College

Yifan Gong, Ralph Stinebrickner and Todd R. Stinebrickner

25484: Social Progress and Corporate Culture

Gary Gorton and Alexander K. Zentefis

25483: How Many Life-Years Have New Drugs Saved? A 3-Way Fixed-Effects Analysis of 66 Diseases in 27 Countries, 2000-2013

Frank Lichtenberg

25482: Monetary Policy Communications and their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber

25481: Taming the Factor Zoo: A Test of New Factors

Guanhao Feng, Stefano Giglio and Dacheng Xiu

25480: Wartime Health Shocks and the Postwar Socioeconomic Status and Mortality of Union Army Veterans and their Children

Dora Costa, Noelle Yetter and Heather DeSomer

25479: Measuring Opportunity in U.S. Higher Education

Caroline M. Hoxby and Sarah Turner

25478: Noisy Memory and Over-Reaction to News

Rava Azeredo da Silveira and Michael Woodford

25477: Markets for Financial Innovation

Ana Babus and Kinda Cheryl Hachem

25476: Has the U.S. Wage Phillips Curve Flattened? A Semi-Structural Exploration

Jordi Galí and Luca Gambetti

25475: Can a Tiger Change Its Stripes? Reform of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises in the Penumbra of the State

Ann Harrison, Marshall Meyer, Peichun Wang, Linda Zhao and Minyuan Zhao

25474: The Effect of Superstition on Health: Evidence from the Taiwanese Ghost Month

Martin Halla, Chia-Lun Liu and Jin-Tan Liu

25473: Active Choice, Implicit Defaults, and the Incentive to Choose

John Beshears, James Choi, David Laibson and Brigitte Madrian

25472: An Extra Year to Learn English? Early Grade Retention and the Human Capital Development of English Learners

David Figlio and Umut Özek

25471: Measuring Productivity: Lessons from Tailored Surveys and Productivity Benchmarking

David Atkin, Amit Khandelwal and Adam Osman

25470: How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? Evidence from Payroll Records in Washington State

Ekaterina S. Jardim, Gary Solon and Jacob Vigdor

25469: China vs. U.S.: IMS Meets IPS

Emmanuel Farhi and Matteo Maggiori

25468: Age-Based Property Tax Exemptions

Spencer Banzhaf, Ryan Mickey and Carlianne Patrick

25467: Securities Laws, Bank Monitoring, and the Choice Between Cov-lite Loans and Bonds for Highly Levered

Robert Prilmeier and René M. Stulz

25466: Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions

Steven Davis and John C. Haltiwanger

25465: Minding Your Ps and Qs: Going from Micro to Macro in Measuring Prices and Quantities

Gabriel Ehrlich, John C. Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, David Johnson and Matthew D. Shapiro

25464: Aggregation and the Gravity Equation

Stephen Redding and David Weinstein

25463: Fiscal Rules and Discretion under Limited Enforcement

Marina Halac and Pierre Yared

25462: Global Wealth Inequality

Gabriel Zucman

25461: Beating the Odds: Black Jockeys in the Kentucky Derby, 1870-1911

Michael Leeds and Hugh Rockoff

25460: Addressing Cross-National Generalizability in Educational Impact Evaluation

Eric A. Hanushek

25459: Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets

Laura Alfaro, Gonzalo Asis, Anusha Chari and Ugo Panizza

25458: On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks

Laura Alfaro, Manuel Garcia-Santana and Enrique Moral-Benito

25457: Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the United States

Alan Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Daniel Murphy

25456: Inference on Winners

Isaiah Andrews, Toru Kitagawa and Adam McCloskey

25455: Digital Cash: Principles & Practical Steps

Michael Bordo and Andrew Levin

25454: Common Ownership in America: 1980-2017

Matthew Backus, Christopher Conlon and Michael Sinkinson

25453: Infringing Use as a Path to Legal Consumption: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Hong Luo and Julie Mortimer

25452: 1930: First Modern Crisis

Gary Gorton, Toomas Laarits and Tyler Muir

25451: The Dozen Things Experimental Economists Should Do (More of)

Eszter Czibor, David Jimenez-Gomez and John List

25450: The Insurance is the Lemon: Failing to Index Contracts

Barney Hartman-Glaser and Benjamin M. Hébert

25449: Currency Factors

Arash Aloosh and Geert Bekaert

25448: Heterogeneous Households under Uncertainty

Pietro Veronesi

25447: Spatial Correlation, Trade, and Inequality: Evidence from the Global Climate

Jonathan Dingel, Kyle Meng and Solomon M. Hsiang

25446: Tweet Sixteen and Pregnant: Missing Links in the Causal Chain from Reality TV to Fertility

David Jaeger, Ted Joyce and Robert Kaestner

25445: Monetary and Fiscal Policy When People Have Finite Lives

Roger Farmer and Pawel Zabczyk

25444: Variation in Women’s Success Across PhD Programs in Economics

Leah Boustan and Andrew Langan

25443: The Fine Print in Smart Contracts

Joshua Gans

25442: Capitalists in the Twenty-First Century

Matthew Smith, Danny Yagan, Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick

25441: The Origins of Firm Heterogeneity: A Production Network Approach

Andrew Bernard, Emmanuel Dhyne, Glenn Magerman, Kalina Manova and Andreas Moxnes

25440: Heterogeneity, Measurement Error and Misallocation: Evidence from African Agriculture

Douglas Gollin and Christopher Udry

25439: Agent Orange: Trump, Soft Power, and Exports

Andrew Rose

25438: From Immigrants to Robots: The Changing Locus of Substitutes for Workers

George Borjas and Richard Freeman

25437: Why Has China Overinvested in Coal Power?

Mengjia Ren, Lee Branstetter, Brian Kovak, Daniel E. Armanios and Jiahai Yuan

25436: Retirement Choices by State and Local Public Sector Employees: The Role of Eligibility and Financial Incentives

Leslie Papke

25435: Do Firms Respond to Gender Pay Gap Transparency?

Morten Bennedsen, Elena Simintzi, Margarita Tsoutsoura and Daniel Wolfenzon

25434: The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs: Evidence from the United States Using a Bunching Estimator

Doruk Cengiz, Arindrajit Dube, Attila Lindner and Ben Zipperer

25433: Volatility and Informativeness

Eduardo Davila and Cecilia Parlatore

25432: Do Innovation Subsidies Make Chinese Firms More Innovative? Evidence from the China Employer Employee Survey

Hong Cheng, Hanbing Fan, Takeo Hoshi and Dezhuang Hu

25431: On the Controversies behind the Origins of the Federal Economic Statistics

Hugh Rockoff

25430: Folklore

Stelios Michalopoulos and Melanie Meng Xue

25429: How Does Scientific Progress Affect Cultural Changes? A Digital Text Analysis

Michela Giorcelli, Nicola Lacetera and Astrid Marinoni

25428: Urgent Care Centers and the Demand for Non-Emergent Emergency Department Visits

Lindsay Allen, Janet R. Cummings and Jason Hockenberry

25427: Substance Use Disorder Treatment Centers and Property Values

Brady P. Horn, Aakrit Joshi and Johanna Maclean

25426: From Commodity to Fiat and Now to Crypto: What Does History Tell Us?

Barry Eichengreen

25425: Understanding Trends in Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States

Lawrence Katz and Alan Krueger

25424: Capital Requirements in a Quantitative Model of Banking Industry Dynamics

P. Dean Corbae and Pablo D'Erasmo

25423: Do Workers Value Flexible Jobs? A Field Experiment

Haoran He, David Neumark and Qian Weng

25422: Negative Swap Spreads and Limited Arbitrage

Urban Jermann

25421: The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016

Joao Ayres, Marcio Garcia, Diogo A. Guillén and Patrick Kehoe

25420: Good Carry, Bad Carry

Geert Bekaert and George Panayotov

25419: The Causal Impact of Removing Children from Abusive and Neglectful Homes

Anthony Bald, Eric Chyn, Justine S. Hastings and Margarita Machelett

25418: Learning from Coworkers

Gregor Jarosch, Ezra Oberfield and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

25417: Consumer Spending During Unemployment: Positive and Normative Implications

Peter Ganong and Pascal J. Noel

25416: Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel

Gauti Eggertsson, Ragnar Juelsrud, Lawrence H. Summers and Ella Getz Wold

25415: The Race Between Demand and Supply: Tinbergen's Pioneering Studies of Earnings Inequality

James J. Heckman

25414: The Creation and Evolution of Entrepreneurial Public Markets

Shai Bernstein, Abhishek Dev and Josh Lerner

25413: The Discount Rate for Public Policy over the Distant Future

Qingran Li and William Pizer

25412: Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Tiziano Ropele