NBER Working Papers

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27711: What Good Are Treatment Effects without Treatment? Mental Health and the Reluctance to Use Talk Therapy

Christopher Cronin, Matthew P. Forsstrom and Nicholas Papageorge

27710: Exit vs. Voice

Eleonora Broccardo, Oliver D. Hart and Luigi Zingales

27709: Permanent Income Shocks, Target Wealth, and the Wealth Gap

Tullio Jappelli and Luigi Pistaferri

27708: The Baker Hypothesis

Anusha Chari, Peter Blair Henry and Hector Reyes

27707: Measuring Customer Churn and Interconnectedness

Scott Baker, Brian Baugh and Marco C. Sammon

27706: History as Evolution

Nathan Nunn

27705: The Tax Elasticity of Capital Gains and Revenue-Maximizing Rates

Ole Agersnap and Owen Zidar

27704: Nonparametric Identification of Differentiated Products Demand Using Micro Data

Steven Berry and Philip A. Haile

27703: When Uncle Sam Introduced Main Street to Wall Street: Liberty Bonds and the Transformation of American Finance

Eric Hilt, Matthew Jaremski and Wendy Rahn

27702: Confidence and the Propagation of Demand Shocks

George-Marios Angeletos and Chen Lian

27701: Bank Syndicates and Liquidity Provision

Joao A. C. Santos and S Viswanathan

27700: Intermediation and Competition in Search Markets: An Empirical Case Study

Tobias Salz

27699: Understanding Tax Policy: How Do People Reason?

Stefanie Stantcheva

27698: The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy

Kristin Forbes

27697: Peak China Housing

Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang

27696: Decoding India's Low Covid-19 Case Fatality rate

Minu Philip, Debraj Ray and S. Subramanian

27695: Public and Private Provision of Information in Market-Based Public Programs: Evidence from Advertising in Health Insurance Marketplaces

Naoki Aizawa and You Suk Kim

27694: The Effect of Job Displacement on College Enrollment: Evidence from Ohio

Veronica Minaya, Brendan Moore and Judith Scott-Clayton

27693: How Did U.S. Consumers Use Their Stimulus Payments?

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber

27692: Union Membership Peaks in Midlife

David Blanchflower and Alex Bryson

27691: Low Interest Rates, Policy, and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve

Michael Bordo and Joseph G. Haubrich

27690: Return to Venture Capital in the Aggregate

Shumiao Ouyang, Jiaheng Yu and Ravi Jagannathan

27689: Discrimination and Racial Disparities in Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from WWII

Anna Aizer, Ryan Boone, Adriana Lleras-Muney and Jonathan Vogel

27688: What Determines School Segregation? The Crucial Role of Neighborhood Factors

Gregorio Caetano and Hugh Macartney

27687: The Macroeconomic Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from a Narrative Approach

Diego Rojas, Carlos Vegh and Guillermo Vuletin

27686: Patenting Inventions or Inventing Patents? Continuation Practice at the USPTO

Cesare Righi and Timothy Simcoe

27685: Behavioral Welfare Economics and Risk Preferences: A Bayesian Approach

Xiaoxue Sherry Gao, Glenn Harrison and Rusty Tchernis

27684: Generalizable and Robust TV Advertising Effects

Bradley Shapiro, Günter J. Hitsch and Anna Tuchman

27683: A History of Pricing Pollution (Or, Why Pigouvian Taxes are not Necessarily Pigouvian)

Spencer Banzhaf

27682: Dollar Safety and the Global Financial Cycle

Zhengyang Jiang, Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig

27681: Appropriate Technology Use and Autonomy: Evidence from Mexico

Carolina Corral, Xavier Gine, Aprajit Mahajan and Enrique Seira

27680: Improving Management through Worker Evaluations: Evidence from Auto Manufacturing

Jing Cai and Shing-Yi Wang

27679: Social Learning along International Migrant Networks

Yuan Tian, Maria Esther Caballero and Brian Kovak

27678: Data and Policy Decisions: Experimental Evidence from Pakistan

Michael Callen, Saad Gulzar, Syed Ali Hasanain, Muhammad Khan and Arman B. Rezaee

27677: Survival Pessimism and the Demand for Annuities

Cormac O'Dea and David Sturrock

27676: Structuring Mortgages for Macroeconomic Stability

John Campbell, Nuno Clara and João F. Cocco

27675: The Return to Capital in Capital-Scarce Countries

Anusha Chari and Jennifer S. Rhee

27674: Estimating Trends in Male Earnings Volatility with the Panel Study of Income Dynamics

Robert Moffitt and Sisi Zhang

27673: The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and its Lessons for COVID-19

Brian Beach, Karen Clay and Martin H. Saavedra

27672: Reconciling Trends in Volatility: Evidence from the SIPP Survey and Administrative Data

Michael D. Carr, Robert Moffitt and Emily E. Wiemers

27671: A Quantitative Theory of the Credit Score

Satyajit Chatterjee, P. Dean Corbae, Kyle Dempsey and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

27670: The Average and Heterogeneous Effects of Transportation Investments: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa 1960-2010

Remi Jedwab and Adam Storeygard

27669: Medium-Term Money Neutrality and the Effective Lower Bound

Gauti Eggertsson and Marc Giannoni

27668: Early Fertility Decline in the United States: Tests of Alternative Hypotheses using New Complete-Count Census Microdata and Enhanced County-Level Data

Michael R. Haines, J. David Hacker and Matthew Jaremski

27667: COVID-19 and Crime: Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders on Domestic Violence

Lindsey Rose Bullinger, Jillian Carr and Analisa Packham

27666: The $100 Million Nudge: Increasing Tax Compliance of Businesses and the Self-Employed using a Natural Field Experiment

Justin E. Holz, John List, Alejandro Zentner, Marvin Cardoza and Joaquin Zentner

27665: Valuing Long-Term Property Rights with Anticipated Political Regime Shifts

Zhiguo He, Maggie Rong Hu, Zhenping Wang and Vincent Yao

27664: Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility: Results from a Four Data Set Project

Robert Moffitt

27663: The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of the Wage-Price Pass-Through

Sebastian Heise, Fatih Karahan and Ayşegül Şahin

27662: Informational Barriers to Market Access: Experimental Evidence from Liberian Firms

Jonas Hjort, Golvine de Rochambeau, Vinayak Iyer and Fei Ao

27661: The Effect of Mentoring on School Attendance and Academic Outcomes: A Randomized Evaluation of the Check & Connect Program

Jonathan Guryan, Sandra Christenson, Ashley Cureton, Ijun Lai, Jens Ludwig, Catherine Schwarz, Emma Shirey and Mary Clair Turner

27660: This Time It's Different: The Role of Women's Employment in a Pandemic Recession

Titan Alon, Matthias Doepke, Jane Olmstead-Rumsey and Michele Tertilt

27659: Does FinTech Substitute for Banks? Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program

Isil Erel and Jack Liebersohn

27658: Taking It to the Limit: Effects of Increased Student Loan Availability on Attainment, Earnings, and Financial Well-Being

Sandra Black, Jeffrey Denning, Lisa Dettling, Sarena Goodman and Lesley Turner

27657: Staggered Price Indexation

Martín Uribe

27656: Dust Bowl Migrants: Identifying an Archetype

Richard Hornbeck

27655: Book-to-Market, Mispricing, and the Cross-Section of Corporate Bond Returns

Söhnke Bartram, Mark Grinblatt and Yoshio Nozawa

27654: To What Extent Are Tariffs Offset By Exchange Rates?

Olivier Jeanne and Jeongwon Son

27653: Data Privacy and Temptation

Zhuang Liu, Michael Sockin and Wei Xiong

27652: Trade Flows and Fiscal Multipliers

Matteo Cacciatore and Nora Traum

27651: Who Voted for Trump? Populism and Social Capital

Paola Giuliano and Romain Wacziarg

27650: Learning from Deregulation: The Asymmetric Impact of Lockdown and Reopening on Risky Behavior During COVID-19

Edward Glaeser, Ginger Zhe Jin, Benjamin Leyden and Michael Luca

27649: Assessing the Quality of Illegal Copies and its Impact on Revenues and Distribution

Anthony Koschmann and Yi Qian

27648: How Global is Your Mutual Fund? International Diversification from Multinationals

Irem Demirci, Miguel Ferreira, Pedro Matos and Clemens Sialm

27647: Domestic Price Dollarization in Emerging Economies

Andres Drenik and Diego Perez

27646: The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households

Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Rodney Ramcharan, Vincent Yao and Edison Yu

27645: College Majors

Arpita Patnaik, Matthew Wiswall and Basit Zafar

27644: Quid Pro Quo, Knowledge Spillover, and Industrial Quality Upgrading: Evidence from the Chinese Auto Industry

Jie Bai, Panle Barwick, Shengmao Cao and Shanjun Li

27643: Frictional Sorting

Wenquan Liang, Ran Song and Christopher Timmins

27642: Asset Specificity of Non-Financial Firms

Amir Kermani and Yueran Ma

27641: Two Tales of Debt

Amir Kermani and Yueran Ma

27640: Welfare Analysis Meets Causal Inference

Amy Finkelstein and Nathaniel Hendren

27639: Interest Rate Uncertainty and Sovereign Default Risk

Alok Johri, Shahed Khan and César Sosa-Padilla

27638: Molecular Genetics, Risk Aversion, Return Perceptions, and Stock Market Participation

Richard Sias, Laura Starks and Harry J. Turtle

27637: Norwegian and US Policies Alleviate Business Vulnerability Due to the Covid-19 Shock Equally Well

Annette Alstadsæter, Julie Brun Bjørkheim, Wojciech Kopczuk and Andreas Økland

27636: Filling a Niche? The Maize Productivity Impacts of Adaptive Breeding by a Local Seed Company in Kenya

Samuel Bird, Michael Carter, Travis Lybbert, Mary Mathenge, Timothy Njagi and Emilia Tjernström

27635: Behavioral Corporate Finance: The Life Cycle of a CEO Career

Marius Guenzel and Ulrike Malmendier

27634: Design Choices for Central Bank Digital Currency: Policy and Technical Considerations

Sarah Allen, Srđjan Čapkun, Ittay Eyal, Giulia Fanti, Bryan A. Ford, James Grimmelmann, Ari Juels, Kari Kostiainen, Sarah Meiklejohn, Andrew Miller, Eswar Prasad, Karl Wüst and Fan Zhang

27633: The Drug Crisis and the Living Arrangements of Children

Kasey Buckles, William Evans and Ethan Lieber

27632: The Economic Consequences of R̂ = 1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics

Joshua Gans

27631: Persuasion on Networks

Georgy Egorov and Konstantin Sonin

27630: Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks

Alessandro Barattieri and Matteo Cacciatore

27629: Small Business Survival Capabilities and Policy Effectiveness: Evidence from Oakland

Robert P. Bartlett and Adair Morse

27628: Window Dressing in the Public Sector: A Case Study of China’s Compulsory Education Promotion Program

Hanming Fang, Chang Liu and Li-An Zhou

27627: Understanding the German Criticism of the Target System and the Role of Central Bank capital

Roberto Perotti

27626: Do State Earned Income Tax Credits Increase Participation in the Federal EITC?

David Neumark and Katherine E. Williams

27625: The Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment

Valerie Ramey

27624: Information Frictions and Access to the Paycheck Protection Program

Christopher Neilson, John Humphries and Gabriel Ulyssea

27623: When Should Public Programs be Privately Administered? Theory and Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program

Alexander Bartik, Zoe B. Cullen, Edward Glaeser, Michael Luca, Christopher T. Stanton and Adi Sunderam

27622: Efficient Redistribution

Corina Boar and Virgiliu Midrigan

27621: Effects of State COVID-19 Closure Policy on NON-COVID-19 Health Care Utilization

Engy Ziedan, Kosali I. Simon and Coady Wing

27620: Immigration and Violent Crime: Evidence from the Colombia-Venezuela Border

Brian Knight and Ana Tribin

27619: Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime

Monica Deza, Johanna Maclean and Keisha T. Solomon

27618: Intergenerational and Sibling Spillovers in High School Majors

Gordon Dahl, Dan-Olof Rooth and Anders Stenberg

27617: Initial Impacts of the Pandemic on Consumer Behavior: Evidence from Linked Income, Spending, and Savings Data

Natalie Bachas, Peter Ganong, Pascal J. Noel, Joseph Vavra, Arlene Wong, Diana Farrell and Fiona E. Greig

27616: The Impact of Social Security on Pension Claiming and Retirement: Active vs. Passive Decisions

Rafael Lalive, Arvind Magesan and Stefan Staubli

27615: A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates

Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam

27614: Rule of Law in Labor Relations, 1898-1940

Price Fishback

27613: Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis

Alexander Bartik, Marianne Bertrand, Feng Lin, Jesse Rothstein and Matt Unrath

27612: Collaborating During Coronavirus: The Impact of COVID-19 on the Nature of Work

Evan DeFilippis, Stephen Michael Impink, Madison Singell, Jeffrey T. Polzer and Raffaella Sadun