The Virtue of Complexity in Return Prediction

Bryan T. Kelly, Semyon Malamud and Kangying Zhou

No 30217, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Much of the extant literature predicts market returns with “simple” models that use only a few parameters. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we theoretically prove that simple models severely understate return predictability compared to “complex” models in which the number of parameters exceeds the number of observations. We empirically document the virtue of complexity in US equity market return prediction. Our findings establish the rationale for modeling expected returns through machine learning.

JEL-codes: C1 C45 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-ecm and nep-fmk
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Published as Bryan Kelly & Semyon Malamud & Kangying Zhou, 2024. "The Virtue of Complexity in Return Prediction," The Journal of Finance, vol 79(1), pages 459-503.

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