NBER Working Papers

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2706: Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy

Alberto Alesina and Howard Rosenthal

2705: Tariffs in an Economy with Incomplete Markets and Unemployment

Raquel Fernandez

2704: Bank Size, Reputation, and Debt Renegotiation

Raquel Fernandez and David Kaaret

2703: Intraday Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate Movements: News or Noise?

Takatoshi Ito and V. Vance Roley

2702: Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Shocks and Biases

Linda Goldberg

2701: The Founding of the Fed and the Destabilization of the Post-1914 Economy

Jeffrey Miron

2700: Is Theory Really Ahead of Measurement? Current Real Business Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations

Lawrence Christiano and Martin Eichenbaum

2699: A Strategic Altruism Model In Which Ricardian Equivalence Does Not Hold

Laurence Kotlikoff, Assaf Razin and Robert Rosenthal

2698: Unemployment: Getting the Questions Right - and some of the answers

Olivier Blanchard

2697: Schooling and the Great Migration

Robert Margo

2696: Proprietary Public Finance, Political Competition, and Reputation

Herschel Grossman and Suk Jae Noh

2695: Searching For a Break in GNP

Lawrence Christiano

2694: Time-Varying Risk Perceptions and the Pricing of Risky Assets

Benjamin M. Friedman and Kenneth Kuttner

2693: Modeling Structural and Temporal Variation in the Market's Valuation of Banking Firms

Edward Kane and Haluk Unal

2692: Voluntary Debt Reduction: Incentives and Welfare

Elhanan Helpman

2691: Understanding Real Interest Rates

Frederic Mishkin

2690: Job Training, Wage Growth, and Labor Turnover

Jacob Mincer

2689: Business Cycles and the Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence

Marianne Baxter and Alan Stockman

2688: The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle

Robert Barsky and Jeffrey Miron

2687: U.S. Tax Laws and Capital Flight From Latin America

Charles E. McLure, Jr.

2686: Pensions, The Option Value of Work, and Retirement

James Stock and David Wise

2685: The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits

Robert Barro

2684: Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: The Case of Japan

Robert Shiller, Fumiko Kon-Ya and Yoshiro Tsutsui

2683: News and the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate, 1931-1933: The End of the Gold Standard, Imperialism, and the Great Depression

Takatoshi Ito, Kunio Okina and Juro Teranishi

2682: Political and Economic Determinants of Budget Deficits in the IndustrialDemocracies

Nouriel Roubini and Jeffrey Sachs

2681: Terms of Trade and the Transmission of Output Shocks in a Rational Expectations Model

Carol Osler

2680: Precautionary Saving and the Timing of Taxes

Miles Kimball and N. Gregory Mankiw

2679: Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data

Takatoshi Ito

2678: On Time-Series Properties of Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Market

Fabio Canova and Takatoshi Ito

2677: The Mutual Amplification Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility and Unresponsive Trade Prices

Richard Baldwin and Richard Lyons

2676: The Diffusion of New Technologies: Evidence From the Electric Utility Industry

Nancy Rose and Paul Joskow

2675: Buybacks, Exit Bonds, and the Optimality of Debt and Liquidity Relief

Kenneth Froot

2674: The Estimation of Prewar GNP: Methodology and New Evidence

Nathan Balke and Robert Gordon

2673: Debt Neutrality, Professor Vickrey and Henry George's "Single Tax"

Willem Buiter

2672: Econometric Analyses of the Empirical Consequences of Comparable Worth: What Have We Learned?

Ronald Ehrenberg

2671: The Excess Co-Movement of Commodity Prices

Robert Pindyck and Julio Rotemberg

2670: International Coordination of Economic Policies: Scope, Methods, and Effects

Jacob A. Frenkel, Morris Goldstein and Paul Masson

2669: Can International Policy Coordination Really Be Counterproductive?

Carlo Carraro and Francesco Giavazzi

2668: Targets and Instruments of Monetary Policy

Benjamin M. Friedman

2667: A Note on Revenue Forecasting During the Dukakis Administration

Daniel Feenberg and Harvey Rosen

2666: Dysfunctional Non-Market Institutions and the Market

Richard Arnott and Joseph Stiglitz

2665: Oligopoly in Segmented Markets

Shmuel Ben-Zvi and Elhanan Helpman

2664: Evidence From Seven Countries on Whether Inventories Smooth Aggregate Output

Kenneth West

2663: The Demand For Cigarettes and Restrictions on Smoking in the Workplace

Frank Chaloupka and Henry Saffer

2662: External Debt, Planning Horizon and Distorted Credit Markets

Joshua Aizenman

2661: The Effects of Japanese Social Security Retirement Benefits on Personal Savings and Elderly Labor Force Behavior

Tetsuji Yamada and Tadashi Yamada

2660: The Pension Inducement to Retire: An Option Value Analysis

James Stock and David Wise

2659: Tax Induced Trading: The Effect of the 1986 Tax Reform Act on Stock Market Activity

Paul J. Bolster, Lawrence B. Lindsey and Andrew W. Mitrusi

2658: Rules and Discretion in Trade Policy

Robert Staiger and Guido Tabellini

2657: Private Cost Information and the Multinational Enterprise

Kyle Bagwell and Robert Staiger

2656: Factor Market Barriers are Trade Barriers: Gains From Trade in 1992

Richard Baldwin

2655: The Welfare Economics of Debt Service

Dani Rodrik

2654: Closing the Technology Gap: Does Trade Liberalization Really Help?

Dani Rodrik

2653: Exchange-Rate Management Viewed as Tax Policies

Jacob A. Frenkel and Assaf Razin

2652: Structural/Frictional and Demand-Deficient Unemployment in Local Labor Markets

Harry Holzer

2651: Pareto Inefficiency of Market Economies: Search and Efficiency Wage Models

Bruce Greenwald and Joseph Stiglitz

2650: The Effects of Fiscal Policy on International Imbalances: Japan and the United States

John Helliwell

2649: Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men

Robert Topel and Michael P. Ward

2648: The International Monetary System: Developments and Prospects

Jacob A. Frenkel and Morris Goldstein

2647: The Effects of Hours Constraints on Labor Supply Estimates

Shulamit Kahn and Kevin Lang

2646: The Impact of the Agencies on Conventional Fixed-Rate Mortgage Yields

Patric Hendershott and James D. Shilling

2645: The Stabilization of the U.S. Economy Evidence From the Stock Market

Matthew Shapiro

2644: Conditionality, Debt Relief, and the Developing Country Debt Crisis

Jeffrey Sachs

2643: Tax Aversion, Optimal Tax Rates, and Indexation

Roger Waud

2642: A Test of Consumption Insurance

John Cochrane

2641: Liquidity and Market Structure

Sanford Grossman and Merton Miller

2640: Performance Evaluation of Market Timers

Alex Kane and Stephen Gary Marks

2639: The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression

Christina Romer

2638: Do Tournaments Have Incentive Effects?

Ronald Ehrenberg and Michael Bognanno

2637: Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Panacea or Pangloss?

Jeremy I. Bulow and Kenneth Rogoff

2636: Default and Renegotiation of Latin American Foreign Bonds in the Interwar Period

Erika Jorgensen and Jeffrey Sachs

2635: Savings Promotion, Investment Promotion, and International Competitiveness

Lawrence H. Goulder and Barry Eichengreen

2634: Hedonic Price Indexes and the Measurement of Capital and Productivity: Some Historical Reflections

Zvi Griliches

2633: Issues in the Measurement and Interpretation of Saving and Wealth

Michael J. Boskin

2632: Do Taxes Affect Corporate Financing Decisions?

Jeffrey Mackie-Mason

2631: Nonlinear Taxation of Risky Assets and Investment, With Application to Mining

Jeffrey Mackie-Mason

2630: Smuggling, Camouflaging, and Market Structure

Richard Jensen, Jerry Thursby and Marie Thursby

2629: Temporary Terms of Trade Disturbances, The Real Exchange Rate and the Current Account

Sebastian Edwards

2628: Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts

Daniel Feenberg, William Gentry, David Gilroy and Harvey Rosen

2627: Consumer Discrimination and Self-Employment

George Borjas and Stephen Bronars

2626: What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?

Frederic Mishkin

2625: Self-fulfillment Expectations, Speculation Attacks, and Capitol Controls

Harris Dellas and Alan Stockman

2624: R&D, Patents, and Market Value Revisited: Is There Evidence of A SecondTechnological Opportunity Related Factor?

Zvi Griliches, Bronwyn Hall and Ariel Pakes

2623: Sovereign Debt: Is To Forgive To Forget?

Jeremy I. Bulow and Kenneth Rogoff

2622: Data Difficulties in Labor Economics

Daniel Hamermesh

2621: Stock Prices Under Time-Varying Dividend Risk: An Exact Solution In An Infinite-Horizon General Equilibrium Model

Andrew Abel

2620: Bolivia's Economic Crisis

Juan Antonio Morales and Jeffrey Sachs

2619: Heterogeneity in Panel Data: Are There Stable Production Functions?

Jacques Mairesse and Zvi Griliches

2618: Do Developing Countries Lose From the MFA?

Irene Trela and John Whalley

2617: Flexible Staffing Arrangements and Employers' Short-Term Adjustment Strategies

Katharine Abraham

2616: Deterioration of the Terms of Trade and Capital Accumulation: A Reexamination of the Laursen-Metzler Effect

Partha Sen and Stephen J Turnovsky

2615: Production and Trade in Services by U.S. Multinational Firms

Irving B. Kravis and Robert Lipsey

2614: Japanese Structural Adjustment and the Balance of Payments

Jeffrey Sachs and Peter Boone

2613: Fiscal Policy With Impure Intergenerational Altruism

Andrew Abel and B. Douglas Bernheim

2612: What Do Voluntary Export Restraints Do?

Kala Krishna

2611: Advance Notice Provisions in Plant Closing Legislation: Do They Matter?

Ronald Ehrenberg and George H. Jakubson

2610: External Debt, Capital Flight and Political Risk

Alberto Alesina and Guido Tabellini

2609: Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-Daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market

Robert Engle, Takatoshi Ito and Wen-Ling Lin

2608: Federal Reserve Behavior Since 1980: A Financial Markets Perspective

William C. Melton and V. Vance Roley

2607: The Debt Crisis: Structural Explanations of Country Performance

Andrew Berg and Jeffrey Sachs