What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles?

Jeffrey Miron (miron@fas.harvard.edu) and J. Joseph Beaulieu

No 5258, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that in many instances identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about non-seasonal fluctuations. We show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria. We also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization. In some industries capacity constraints appear to bind.

JEL-codes: E30 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995-09
Note: EFG ME
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Published as Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. LXXVIII, no. 1, February 1996, pp. 54-66

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