NBER Working Papers

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19793: The Employment Effect of Terminating Disability Benefits

Timothy Moore

19792: Shrinkage Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models with Structural Instabilities

Xu Cheng, Zhipeng Liao and Frank Schorfheide

19791: For a Few Dollars More: Reserves and Growth in Times of Crises

Matthieu Bussiere, Gong Cheng, Menzie Chinn and Noëmie Lisack

19790: Time-Varying Phillips Curves

Joseph Vavra

19789: Waging War on Poverty: Historical Trends in Poverty Using the Supplemental Poverty Measure

Liana Fox, Irwin Garfinkel, Neeraj Kaushal, Jane Waldfogel and Christopher Wimer

19788: Dynamic Dispersed Information and the Credit Spread Puzzle

Elias Albagli, Christian Hellwig and Aleh Tsyvinski

19787: Externalities and Taxation of Supplemental Insurance: A Study of Medicare and Medigap

Marika Cabral and Neale Mahoney

19786: Political Risk Spreads

Geert Bekaert, Campbell Harvey, Christian Lundblad and Stephan Siegel

19785: Do In-Work Tax Credits Serve as a Safety Net?

Marianne Bitler, Hilary Hoynes and Elira Kuka

19784: A Note on Variance Estimation for the Oaxaca Estimator of Average Treatment Effects

Patrick Kline

19783: Disentangling Financial Constraints, Precautionary Savings, and Myopia: Household Behavior Surrounding Federal Tax Returns

Brian Baugh, Itzhak Ben-David and Hoonsuk Park

19782: Military CEOs

Efraim Benmelech and Carola Frydman

19781: The Effect of Prices on Nutrition: Comparing the Impact of Product- and Nutrient-Specific Taxes

Matthew Harding and Michael Lovenheim

19780: Optimal Trading Ratios for Pollution Permit Markets

Stephen Holland and Andrew Yates

19779: The Fiscal Stress Arising from State and Local Retiree Health Obligations

Byron Lutz and Louise Sheiner

19778: Is Sell-Side Research More Valuable in Bad Times?

Roger K. Loh and René Stulz

19777: An Economical Business-Cycle Model

Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez

19776: Aiding Decision-Making to Reduce the Impacts of Climate Change

Howard Kunreuther and Elke U. Weber

19775: Non-Contributory Pensions

Sebastian Galiani, Paul Gertler and Rosangela Bando

19774: The Perils of Peer Effects

Joshua Angrist

19773: Unintended Consequences of LOLR Facilities: The Case of Illiquid Leverage

Viral Acharya and Bruce Tuckman

19772: The Causal Effect of Unemployment Duration on Wages: Evidence from Unemployment Insurance Extensions

Johannes Schmieder, Till von Wachter and Stefan Bender

19771: Wedges, Wages, and Productivity under the Affordable Care Act

Casey Mulligan and Trevor Gallen

19770: Wedges, Labor Market Behavior, and Health Insurance Coverage under the Affordable Care Act

Trevor Gallen and Casey Mulligan

19769: Does Secular Education Impact Religiosity, Electoral Participation and the Propensity to Vote for Islamic Parties? Evidence from an Education Reform in a Muslim Country

Resul Cesur and Naci Mocan

19768: Does Religion Affect Economic Growth and Happiness? Evidence from Ramadan

Filipe Campante and David Yanagizawa-Drott

19767: Technological Learning and Labor Market Dynamics

Martin Gervais, Nir Jaimovich, Henry Siu and Yaniv Yedid-Levi

19766: Market-based Lobbying: Evidence from Advertising Spending in Italy

Stefano DellaVigna, Ruben Durante, Brian Knight and Eliana La Ferrara

19765: Awareness Reduces Racial Bias

Devin Pope, Joseph Price and Justin Wolfers

19764: Dynamic Commercialization Strategies for Disruptive Technologies: Evidence from the Speech Recognition Industry

Matt Marx, Joshua Gans and David H. Hsu

19763: Buy, Keep or Sell: Economic Growth and the Market for Ideas

Ufuk Akcigit, Murat Celik and Jeremy Greenwood

19762: Returns to Skills around the World: Evidence from PIAAC

Eric Hanushek, Guido Schwerdt, Simon Wiederhold and Ludger Woessmann

19761: The Effect of U.S. Health Insurance Expansions on Medical Innovation

Jeffrey Clemens

19760: Employer Contribution and Premium Growth in Health Insurance

Yiyan Liu and Ginger Zhe Jin

19759: The Tradability of Services: Geographic Concentration and Trade Costs

Antoine Gervais and J. Jensen

19758: O.M.W. Sprague (the Man who "Wrote the Book" on Financial Crises) and the Founding of the Federal Reserve

Hugh Rockoff

19757: Simulating the Elimination of the U.S. Corporate Income Tax

Hans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch, Ashwin Kambhampati and Laurence Kotlikoff

19756: Mitigating Long-run Health Effects of Drought: Evidence from South Africa

Taryn Dinkelman

19755: The Nature and Incidence of Software Piracy: Evidence from Windows

Susan Athey and Scott Stern

19754: Per-capita Income as a Determinant of International Trade and Environmental Policies

James Markusen

19753: The Roles of Assimilation and Ethnic Enclave Residence in Immigrant Smoking

Johanna Maclean, Douglas Webber and Jody L. Sindelar

19752: Revenue Tariff Reform

James Anderson and J. Peter Neary

19751: Export or Merge? Proximity vs. Concentration in Product Space

Marc-Andreas Muendler

19750: Culture and Institutions

Alberto Alesina and Paola Giuliano

19749: The Output and Welfare Effects of Government Spending Shocks over the Business Cycle

Eric Sims and Jonathan Wolff

19748: Was This Time Different? Fiscal Policy in Commodity Republics

Luis Cespedes and Andrés Velasco

19747: Is Bitcoin a Real Currency? An economic appraisal

David Yermack

19746: Democracy, Redistribution and Inequality

Daron Acemoglu, Suresh Naidu, Pascual Restrepo and James Robinson

19745: A World of Cities: The Causes and Consequences of Urbanization in Poorer Countries

Edward Glaeser

19744: Mortgages and Monetary Policy

Carlos Garriga, Finn Kydland and Roman Sustek

19743: Flip the Switch: The Spatial Impact of the Rural Electrification Administration 1935-1940

Carl Kitchens and Price Fishback

19742: Endogenous Stratification in Randomized Experiments

Alberto Abadie, Matthew M. Chingos and Martin R. West

19741: The Effects of Paid Family Leave in California on Labor Market Outcomes

Charles Baum and Christopher Ruhm

19740: Business Literacy and Development: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Rural Mexico

Gabriela Calderón, Jesse Cunha and Giacomo De Giorgi

19739: China's Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves

Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak and Nancy Marion

19738: Risk and Return in Village Economies

Krislert Samphantharak and Robert Townsend

19737: Private Politics and Public Regulation

Georgy Egorov and Bard Harstad

19736: The Economic Cost of Global Fuel Subsidies

Lucas Davis

19735: The Impacts of Expanding Access to High-Quality Preschool Education

Elizabeth Cascio and Diane Schanzenbach

19734: Endogenous Property Rights

Daniel Diermeier, Georgy Egorov and Konstantin Sonin

19733: Economic Transition and Private-Sector Labor Demand: Evidence from Urban China

Lakshmi Iyer, Xin Meng, Nancy Qian and Xiaoxue Zhao

19732: Time is Money: Life Cycle Rational Inertia and Delegation of Investment Management

Hugh Hoikwang Kim, Raimond Maurer and Olivia Mitchell

19731: Bid Takers or Market Makers? The Effect of Auctioneers on Auction Outcomes

Nicola Lacetera, Bradley Larsen, Devin Pope and Justin R. Sydnor

19730: Does the Use of Worker Flows Improve the Analysis of Establishment Turnover? Evidence from German Administrative Data

Tanja Hethey-Maier and Johannes Schmieder

19729: The Economics of Energy Security

Gilbert Metcalf

19728: Have Financial Markets Become More Informative?

Jennie Bai, Thomas Philippon and Alexi Savov

19727: Employee Spinouts, Social Networks, and Family Firms

James Rauch

19726: The Effect of Patient Cost Sharing on Utilization, Health, and Risk Protection

Hitoshi Shigeoka

19725: Feeling the Heat: Temperature, Physiology & the Wealth of Nations

Geoffrey Heal and Jisung Park

19724: The Social Security Windfall Elimination and Government Pension Offset Provisions for Public Employees in the Health and Retirement Study

Alan Gustman, Thomas L. Steinmeier and Nahid Tabatabai

19723: Can Non-Interest Rate Policies Stabilize Housing Markets? Evidence from a Panel of 57 Economies

Kenneth Kuttner and Ilhyock Shim

19722: Managing the Family Firm: Evidence from CEOs at Work

Oriana Bandiera, Renata Lemos, Andrea Prat and Raffaella Sadun

19721: Estimating Habit Formation in Voting

Thomas Fujiwara, Kyle Meng and Tom Vogl

19720: Calculating Disease-Based Medical Care Expenditure Indexes for Medicare Beneficiaries: A Comparison of Method and Data Choices

Anne E. Hall and Tina Highfill

19719: Going into the Affordable Care Act: Measuring the Size, Structure and Performance of the Individual and Small Group Markets for Health Insurance

Pinar Karaca-Mandic, Jean M. Abraham, Kosali Simon and Roger Feldman

19718: Exchange rate dynamics revisited

Jorge Braga de Macedo and Urho Lempinen

19717: Take the Short Route: How to Repay and Restructure Sovereign Debt with Multiple Maturities

Mark Aguiar and Manuel Amador

19716: The Importance of Financial Resources for Student Loan Repayment

Lance Lochner, Todd Stinebrickner and Utku Suleymanoglu

19715: Capital Reallocation and the Cyclicality of Aggregate Productivity

Russell Cooper and Immo Schott

19714: Fluctuations in Uncertainty

Nicholas Bloom

19713: The Lightbulb Paradox: Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments

Hunt Allcott and Dmitry Taubinsky

19712: Real-Time Forecasting with a Mixed-Frequency VAR

Frank Schorfheide and Dongho Song

19711: Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy with Endogenous Collateral Constraints

Aloisio Araujo, Susan Schommer and Michael Woodford

19710: Colonial New Jersey's Paper Money Regime, 1709-1775: A Forensic Accounting Reconstruction of the Data

Farley Grubb

19709: Efficiency and Foreclosure Effects of Vertical Rebates: Empirical Evidence

Christopher Conlon and Julie Mortimer

19708: Financial Dependence and Innovation: The Case of Public versus Private Firms

Viral Acharya and Zhaoxia Xu

19707: Bank Capital and Dividend Externalities

Viral Acharya, Hanh Le and Hyun Song Shin

19706: Are Commodity Futures Prices Barometers of the Global Economy?

Conghui Hu and Wei Xiong

19705: Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications

Pierre Collin-Dufresne, Michael Johannes and Lars A. Lochstoer

19704: Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy

Javier Bianchi and Enrique Mendoza

19703: An Experimental Approach to Merger Evaluation

Christopher Conlon and Julie Mortimer

19702: After the Drought: The Impact of Microinsurance on Consumption Smoothing and Asset Protection

Sarah Janzen and Michael Carter

19701: The Value of Connections in Turbulent Times: Evidence from the United States

Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak and Todd Mitton

19700: Is This Time Different? The Slowdown in Healthcare Spending

Amitabh Chandra, Jonathan Holmes and Jonathan Skinner

19699: Accounting for Income Changes over the Great Recession (2007-2010) Relative to Previous Recessions: The Importance of Taxes and Transfers

Jeff Larrimore, Richard Burkhauser and Philip Armour

19698: Advancing the Empirical Research on Lobbying

John M. de Figueiredo and Brian Kelleher Richter

19697: Internal Geography, International Trade, and Regional Specialization

A. Kerem Coşar and Pablo Fajgelbaum

19696: Follow the Money: Methods for Identifying Consumption and Investment Responses to a Liquidity Shock

Dean Karlan, Adam Osman and Jonathan Zinman

19695: Salience Theory of Judicial Decisions

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

19694: Does Knowledge Accumulation Increase the Returns to Collaboration?

Ajay Agrawal, Avi Goldfarb and Florenta Teodoridis