NBER Working Papers

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19661: Human Capital and Fertility in Chinese Clans Before Modern Growth

Carol Shiue

19660: Testing the Theory of Multitasking: Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment in Chinese Factories

Fuhai Hong, Tanjim Hossain, John List and Migiwa Tanaka

19659: People, Places and Public Policy: Some Simple Welfare Economics of Local Economic Development Programs

Patrick Kline and Enrico Moretti

19658: Skilled Immigration and the Employment Structures of U.S. Firms

Sari Pekkala Kerr, William Kerr and William Lincoln

19657: Heterogeneous Technology Diffusion and Ricardian Trade Patterns

William Kerr

19656: Fostering and Measuring Skills: Interventions That Improve Character and Cognition

James Heckman and Tim Kautz

19655: Asia Chartbook: Crises, Credit and Debt, 1835-2013

Carmen Reinhart

19654: Making Nutritional Information Digestible: Effects of a Receipt-Based Intervention on Restaurant Purchases

Kelly Bedard and Peter Kuhn

19653: Collaboration, Stars, and the Changing Organization of Science: Evidence from Evolutionary Biology

Ajay Agrawal, John McHale and Alexander Oettl

19652: Crowding Out Redefined: The Role of Reserve Accumulation

Carmen Reinhart and Takeshi Tashiro

19651: Volatility and Pass-through

David Berger and Joseph Vavra

19650: Distilling the Macroeconomic News Flow

Alessandro Beber, Michael W. Brandt and Maurizio Luisi

19649: Dishonesty and Selection into Public Service

Rema Hanna and Shing-Yi Wang

19648: The Economics of China: Successes and Challenges

Shenggen Fan, Ravi Kanbur, Shang-Jin Wei and Xiaobo Zhang

19647: Patent Value and Citations: Creative Destruction or Strategic Disruption?

David Abrams, Ufuk Akcigit and Jillian Grennan

19646: Targeting ultra-poor households in Honduras and Peru

Dean Karlan and Bram Thuysbaert

19645: Reducing Moral Hazard in Employment Relationships: Experimental Evidence on Managerial Control and Performance Pay

C. Kirabo Jackson and Henry Schneider

19644: Can Negotiating a Uniform Carbon Price Help to Internalize the Global Warming Externality?

Martin Weitzman

19643: The Cost of Capital for Alternative Investments

Jakub W. Jurek and Erik Stafford

19642: The Financialization of Commodity Markets

Ing-Haw Cheng and Wei Xiong

19641: Ricardian Productivity Differences and the Gains from Trade

Andrei Levchenko and Jing Zhang

19640: Recall and Unemployment

Shigeru Fujita and Giuseppe Moscarini

19639: Enrollment in Medicare Advantage Plans in Miami-Dade County: Evidence of Status Quo Bias?

Anna D. Sinaiko, Christopher C. Afendulis and Richard G. Frank

19638: Macroeconomic Determinants of Retirement Timing

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Jae Song and Dmitriy Stolyarov

19637: Price and Quality Dispersion in an Offshoring Market: Evidence from Semiconductor Production Services

David Byrne, Brian Kovak and Ryan Michaels

19636: Unintended Consequences of Transportation Carbon Policies: Land-Use, Emissions, and Innovation

Stephen Holland, Jonathan Hughes, Christopher Knittel and Nathan C. Parker

19635: The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy

Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio Primiceri and Andrea Tambalotti

19634: Understanding Media Markets in the Digital Age: Economics and Methodology

Brett Danaher, Samita Dhanasobhon, Michael D. Smith and Rahul Telang

19633: Financing as a Supply Chain: The Capital Structure of Banks and Borrowers

William Gornall and Ilya Strebulaev

19632: Surprising Similarities: Recent Monetary Regimes of Small Economies

Andrew Rose

19631: When Ideas Trump Interests: Preferences, World Views, and Policy Innovations

Dani Rodrik

19630: Wait-and-See: Investment Options under Policy Uncertainty

Nancy L. Stokey

19629: Multiple Dimensions of Private Information in Life Insurance Markets

Xi Wu and Li Gan

19628: The Agricultural Productivity Gap

Douglas Gollin, David Lagakos and Michael Waugh

19627: The Consequences of Teenage Childbearing Before Roe v Wade

Kevin Lang and Russell Weinstein

19626: Enforcement and Immigrant Location Choice

Tara Watson

19625: Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War

Charles Calomiris and Jonathan Pritchett

19624: The Evolving Geography of China's Industrial Production: Implications for Pollution Dynamics and Urban Quality of Life

Siqi Zheng, Cong Sun, Ye Qi and Matthew Kahn

19623: The Term Structure of Currency Carry Trade Risk Premia

Hanno Lustig, Andreas Stathopoulos and Adrien Verdelhan

19622: Moral Hazard and Economies of Scope in Physician Ownership of Complementary Medical Services

Brian K. Chen, Paul Gertler and Chuh-Yuh Yang

19621: The Impact of Headquarter and Subsidiary Locations on Multinationals' Effective Tax Rates

Kevin S. Markle and Douglas Shackelford

19620: Pollution Control Effort at China's River Borders: When Does Free Riding Cease?

Matthew Kahn, Pei Li and Daxuan Zhao

19619: Moral Hazard, Informed Trading, and Stock Prices

Pierre Collin-Dufresne and Vyacheslav Fos

19618: Economic Development, Flow of Funds and the Equilibrium Interaction of Financial Frictions

Benjamin Moll, Robert Townsend and Victor Zhorin

19617: Dynamic Financial Constraints: Distinguishing Mechanism Design from Exogenously Incomplete Regimes

Alexander Karaivanov and Robert Townsend

19616: Moving out of Agriculture: Structural Change in Vietnam

Brian McCaig and Nina Pavcnik

19615: Confucianism and Preferences: Evidence from Lab Experiments in Taiwan and China

Elaine Liu, Juanjuan Meng and Joseph Wang

19614: Why ask Why? Forward Causal Inference and Reverse Causal Questions

Andrew Gelman and Guido Imbens

19613: Pass-through of Emissions Costs in Electricity Markets

Natalia Fabra and Mar Reguant

19612: Valuing Private Equity

Morten Sorensen, Neng Wang and Jinqiang Yang

19611: Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk

Sang Byung Seo and Jessica Wachter

19610: Mothers, Friends and Gender Identity

Claudia Olivetti, Eleonora Patacchini and Yves Zenou

19609: Are Closely-Held Firms Tax Shelters?

Annette Alstadsæter, Wojciech Kopczuk and Kjetil Telle

19608: Russia's Fiscal Gap

Eugene Goryunov, Maria Kazakova, Laurence Kotlikoff, Arseny Mamedov, Kristina Nesterova, Vladimir Nazarov, Elena Grishina, Pavel Trunin and Alexey Shpenev

19607: Credit Constraints and the Racial Gap in Post-Secondary Education in South Africa

David Lam, Cally Ardington, Nicola Branson and Murray Leibbrandt

19606: Collateral Valuation and Borrower Financial Constraints: Evidence from the Residential Real Estate Market

Sumit Agarwal, Itzhak Ben-David and Vincent Yao

19605: Amidst Poverty and Prejudice: Black and Irish Civil War Veterans

Hoyt Bleakley, Louis Cain and Joseph Ferrie

19604: The Home Front: Rent Control and the Rapid Wartime Increase in Home Ownership

Daniel Fetter

19603: Malaria and Early African Development: Evidence from the Sickle Cell Trait

Emilio Depetris-Chauvin and David Weil

19602: Perverse Consequences of Well Intentioned Regulation: Evidence from India's Child Labor Ban

Prashant Bharadwaj, Leah Lakdawala and Nicholas Li

19601: Experimentation in Federal Systems

Steven Callander and Bard Harstad

19600: Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Dmitri Koustas

19599: Is There A Case for a "Second Demographic Transition"? Three Distinctive Features of the Post-1960 U.S. Fertility Decline

Martha Bailey, Melanie Guldi and Brad Hershbein

19598: Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation

Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

19597: Women's Education: Harbinger of Another Spring? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Turkey

Mehmet Alper Dinçer, Neeraj Kaushal and Michael Grossman

19596: Why Has Japan's Massive Government Debt Not Wreaked Havoc (Yet)?

Charles Horioka, Takaaki Nomoto and Akiko Hagiwara

19595: What Is the Case for Paid Maternity Leave?

Gordon Dahl, Katrine Løken, Magne Mogstad and Kari Vea Salvanes

19594: Risky Investments with Limited Commitment

Thomas Cooley, Ramon Marimon and Vincenzo Quadrini

19593: The Impact of Biomedical Knowledge Accumulation on Mortality: A Bibliometric Analysis of Cancer Data

Frank Lichtenberg

19592: Effects of Physician-Directed Pharmaceutical Promotion on Prescription Behaviors: Longitudinal Evidence

Anusua Datta and Dhaval Dave

19591: Can Simple Informational Nudges Increase Employee Participation in a 401(k) Plan?

Robert L. Clark, Jennifer A. Maki and Melinda Morrill

19590: The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options

Byeong-Je An, Andrew Ang, Turan G. Bali and Nusret Cakici

19589: Is the Consumer Expenditure Survey Representative by Income?

John Sabelhaus, David Johnson, Stephen Ash, David Swanson, Thesia Garner, John Greenlees and Steve Henderson

19588: The Optimal Currency Area in a Liquidity Trap

David Cook and Michael Devereux

19587: Failing the Test? The Flexible U.S. Job Market in the Great Recession

Richard Freeman

19586: Drive More Effective Data-Based Innovations: Enhancing the Utility of Secure Databases

Yi Qian and Hui Xie

19585: Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms; Some Historical and Empirical Evidence

Michael Bordo and John Landon-Lane

19584: What Explains House Price Booms?: History and Empirical Evidence

Michael Bordo and John Landon-Lane

19583: How Family Status and Social Security Claiming Options Shape Optimal Life Cycle Portfolios

Andreas Hubener, Raimond Maurer and Olivia Mitchell

19582: Constructing a PCE-Weighted Consumer Price Index

Caitlin Blair

19581: The Medium-Term Impacts of High-Achieving Charter Schools on Non-Test Score Outcomes

Will Dobbie and Roland Fryer

19580: The Mother of All Sudden Stops: Capital Flows and Reversals in Europe, 1919-32

Olivier Accominotti and Barry Eichengreen

19579: Consumption and Cash-Flow Taxes in an International Setting

Alan Auerbach and Michael Devereux

19578: What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature

Melissa Dell, Benjamin Jones and Benjamin Olken

19577: The Continental Dollar: How the American Revolution was Financed with Paper Money--Initial Design and Ideal Performance

Farley Grubb

19576: Small High Schools and Student Achievement: Lottery-Based Evidence from New York City

Atila Abdulkadiroğlu, Weiwei Hu and Parag Pathak

19575: Globalization, Democracy and Development

Jorge Braga de Macedo, Luis Pereira, Joaquim Oliveira Martins and Joao Jalles

19574: Who Pays for Public Employee Health Costs?

Jeffrey Clemens and David Cutler

19573: Blockholders and Corporate Governance

Alex Edmans

19572: The Redistributive Effects of Financial Deregulation

Anton Korinek and Jonathan Kreamer

19571: What Do We Know About Short and Long Term Effects of Early Life Exposure to Pollution?

Janet Currie, Joshua Graff Zivin, Jamie Mullins and Matthew Neidell

19570: Home Bias and Local Contagion: Evidence from Funds of Hedge Funds

Clemens Sialm, Zheng Sun and Lu Zheng

19569: Defined Contribution Pension Plans: Sticky or Discerning Money?

Clemens Sialm, Laura Starks and Hanjiang Zhang

19568: Shadow Insurance

Ralph Koijen and Motohiro Yogo

19567: Bayesian Variable Selection for Nowcasting Economic Time Series

Steven L. Scott and Hal Varian

19566: The Effects of Retiree Health Insurance Plan Characteristics on Retirees' Choice and Employers' Costs

Robert Clark, Melinda Morrill and David Vanderweide

19565: To Hold Out or Not to Hold Out

Frank Schorfheide and Kenneth I. Wolpin

19564: Market Thickness and the Impact of Unemployment on Housing Market Outcomes

Li Gan and Qinghua Zhang

19563: The Role of Retiree Health Insurance in the Early Retirement of Public Sector Employees

John B. Shoven and Sita Slavov

19562: Evaluation of the College Possible Program: Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial

Christopher Avery