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Financial Markets where Traders Neglect the Informational Content of Prices

Erik Eyster, Matthew Rabin and Dimitri Vayanos

No 21224, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We present a model of a financial market where some traders are "cursed" when choosing how much to invest in a risky asset, failing to fully take into account what prices convey about others' private information. Cursed traders put more weight on their private signals than rational traders. But because they neglect that the price encodes other traders' information, prices depend less on private signals and more on public signals than rational-expectation-equilibrium (REE) prices. Markets comprised entirely of cursed traders generate more trade than those comprised entirely of rationals; mixed markets can generate even more trade, as rationals employ momentum-trading strategies to exploit cursed traders. We contrast our results to other models of departures from REE and show that per-trader volume with cursed traders increases when the market becomes large, while natural forms of overconfidence predict that volume should converge to zero.

JEL-codes: D53 D84 G02 G11 G12 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mic
Note: AP
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

Published as ERIK EYSTER & MATTHEW RABIN & DIMITRI VAYANOS, 2019. "Financial Markets Where Traders Neglect the Informational Content of Prices," The Journal of Finance, vol 74(1), pages 371-399.

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Journal Article: Financial Markets Where Traders Neglect the Informational Content of Prices (2019) Downloads
Working Paper: Financial markets where traders neglect the informational content of prices (2019) Downloads
Working Paper: Financial markets where traders neglect the informational content of prices (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Financial Markets where Traders Neglect the Informational Content of Prices (2015) Downloads
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