NBER Working Papers

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7075: Do Investors Forecast Fat Firms? Evidence from the Gold Mining Industry

Severin Borenstein and Joseph Farrell

7074: The Rybczynski Theorem, Factor-Price Equalization, and Immigration: Evidence from U.S. States

Gordon Hanson and Matthew J. Slaughter

7073: Area Economic Conditions and the Labor Market Outcomes of Young Men in the 1990s Expansion

Richard Freeman and William M. Rodgers

7072: Volatile Policy and Private Information: The Case of Monetary Policy

Larry Jones and Rodolfo Manuelli

7071: Multilateral Trade Negotiations, Bilateral Opportunism and the Rules of GATT

Kyle Bagwell and Robert Staiger

7070: Innovation Fertility and Patent Design

Hugo Hopenhayn and Matthew Mitchell

7069: Bayesian Performance Evaluation

Klaas Baks, Andrew Metrick and Jessica Wachter

7068: Legal Monopoly: Patents and Antitrust Litigation in U.S. Manufacturing, 1970-1998

B. Zorina Khan

7067: On the Foreign-Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models

Charles Engel

7066: Do Stronger Patents Induce More Innovation? Evidence from the 1988 Japanese Patent Law Reforms

Mariko Sakakibara and Lee Branstetter

7065: The Economics of Bequests in Pensions and Social Security

Martin Feldstein and Elena Ranguelova

7064: Privatizing R&D: Patent Policy and the Commercialization of National Laboratory Technologies

Adam Jaffe and Josh Lerner

7063: Technology (and Policy) Shocks in Models of Endogenous Growth

Larry Jones, Rodolfo Manuelli and Ennio Stacchetti

7062: The Patent Paradox Revisited: Determinants of Patenting in the US Semiconductor Industry, 1980-94

Bronwyn Hall and Rose Marie Ham

7061: Taxation and Saving

B. Douglas Bernheim

7060: Money and Interest Rates with Endogeneously Segmented Markets

Fernando Alvarez, Andrew Atkeson and Patrick Kehoe

7059: Can Taxes on Cars and on Gasoline Mimic an Unavailable Tax on Emissions?

Don Fullerton and Sarah West

7058: Child Care and Mothers' Employment Decisions

Patricia Anderson and Phillip Levine

7057: Liquidity Flows and Fragility of Business Enterprises

Wouter den Haan, Garey Ramey and Joel Watson

7056: International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Correlations

Andrew Ang and Geert Bekaert

7055: Economic Tracking Portfolios

Owen Lamont

7054: Does Border Enforcement Protect U.S. Workers from Illegal Immigration?

Gordon Hanson, Raymond Robertson and Antonio Spilimbergo

7053: Starting Small in an Unfamiliar Environment

James Rauch and Joel Watson

7052: Economics and Mental Health

Richard G. Frank and Thomas G. McGuire

7051: Any Non-Individualistic Social Welfare Function Violates the Pareto Principle

Louis Kaplow and Steven Shavell

7050: Administrative Costs and Equilibrium Charges with Individual Accounts

Peter Diamond

7049: Mutual Funds and Institutional Investments: What is the Most Efficient Way to Set Up Individual Accounts in a Social Security System?

Estelle James, Gary Ferrier, James Smalhout and Dimitri Vittas

7048: Mortality Risk and Consumption by Couples

Michael Hurd

7047: The Economics of Smoking

Frank Chaloupka and Kenneth E. Warner

7046: Household Production and the Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Current Income

Marianne Baxter and Urban Jermann

7045: The Business Cycles of Balance-of-Payment Crises: A Revision of Mundellan Framework

Enrique Mendoza and Martín Uribe

7044: International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes

Frederic Mishkin

7043: Ownership versus Environment: Why are Public Sector Firms Inefficient?

Ann P. Bartel and Ann Harrison

7042: The Role of Bank Restructuring in Recovering from Crises: Mexico 1995-98

Anne Krueger and Aaron Tornell

7041: Generational Accounting and Immigration in the United States

Alan Auerbach and Philip Oreopoulos

7040: Foreign-Affiliate Activity and U.S. Skill Upgrading

Bruce Blonigen and Matthew J. Slaughter

7039: On Portfolio Optimization: Forecasting Covariances and Choosing the Risk Model

Louis K.C. Chan, Jason Karceski and Josef Lakonishok

7038: Inequality, Growth, and Investment

Robert Barro

7037: Economic Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases

Tomas Philipson

7036: Uncertainty and the Design of Long-Run Fiscal Policy

Alan Auerbach and Kevin Hassett

7035: A New Measure of Horizontal Equity

Alan Auerbach and Kevin Hassett

7034: The Usual Excess-Burden Approximation Usually Doesn't Come Close

Lawrence H. Goulder and Roberton Williams

7033: Index Funds and Stock Market Growth

William Goetzmann and Massimo Massa

7032: Pairs Trading: Performance of a Relative Value Arbitrage Rule

Evan G. Gatev, William Goetzmann and K. Rouwenhorst

7031: The Risk of Social Security Benefit Rule Changes: Some International Evidence

John McHale

7030: Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty: The Risk Sharing Properties of Alternative Policies

Henning Bohn

7029: Investing Retirement Wealth: A Life-Cycle Model

John Campbell, Joao F. Cocco, Francisco Gomes and Pascal J. Maenhout

7028: Using Employee Level Data in a Firm Level Econometric Study

Jacques Mairesse and Nathalie Greenan

7027: Maximum Likelihood in the Frequency Domain: A Time to Build Example

Lawrence Christiano and Robert Vigfusson

7026: Pricing to Market, Staggered Contracts, and Real Exchange Rate Persistence

Paul Bergin and Robert Feenstra

7025: The Concentration of Job Destruction

Robert Hall

7024: Network Effects and Diffusion in Pharmaceutical Markets: Antiulcer Drugs

Ernst R. Berndt, Robert Pindyck and Pierre Azoulay

7023: Forecasting Inflation

James Stock and Mark Watson

7022: Innovation in Israel 1968-97: A Comparative Analysis Using Patent Data

Manuel Trajtenberg

7021: Globalization of Equity Markets and the Cost of Capital

René Stulz

7020: Valuing the Reload Features of Executive Stock Options

Steven Huddart, Ravi Jagannathan and Jane Saly

7019: Inferring Relative Factor Price Changes from Quantitative Data

Robert Baldwin

7018: Patterns of Skill Premia

Daron Acemoglu

7017: Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model

Lawrence Christiano and Christopher Gust

7016: The Transition to Investment-Based Social Security when Portfolio Returns and Capital Profitability are Uncertain

Martin Feldstein, Elena Ranguelova and Andrew Samwick

7015: Asset Allocation and Risk Allocation: Can Social Security Improve Its Future Solvency Problem by Investing in Private Securities?

Thomas E. MaCurdy and John B. Shoven

7014: Devaluation Risk and the Syndrome of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations

Enrique Mendoza and Martín Uribe

7013: Unskilled Migration: A Burden or a Boon for the Welfare State

Assaf Razin and Efraim Sadka

7012: Search and Deliberation in International Exchange: Learning from Multinational Trade About Lags, Distance Effects, and Home Bias

Subramanian Rangan and Robert Lawrence

7011: Robust Estimation of the Joint Consumption / Asset Demand Decision

Marjorie Flavin

7010: Theory and History Behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?

Victor Zarnowitz

7009: Conditioning Variables and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

Wayne Ferson and Campbell Harvey

7008: Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence

Robert Shiller

7007: The Location and Allocation of Assets in Pension and Conventional Savings Accounts

John B. Shoven

7006: Measuring Labor's Share

Alan Krueger

7005: The Role of Real Annuities and Indexed Bonds in an Individual Accounts Retirement Program

Jeffrey Brown, Olivia Mitchell and James Poterba

7004: Reserve Requirements on Sovereign Debt in the Presence of Moral Hazard -- on Debtors or Creditors?

Joshua Aizenman and Stephen J Turnovsky

7003: New Evidence on Sex Segregation and Sex Differences in Wages from Matched Employee-Employer Data

Kimberly Bayard, Judith Hellerstein, David Neumark and Kenneth Troske

7002: Alternative and Part-Time Employment Arrangements as a Response to Job Loss

Henry S. Farber

7001: Estimating the Effect of Unearned Income on Labor Supply, Earnings, Savings, and Consumption: Evidence from a Survey of Lottery Players

Guido Imbens, Donald B. Rubin and Bruce Sacerdote

7000: Trade, Insecurity, and Home Bias: An Empirical Investigation

James Anderson and Douglas Marcouiller

6999: Is the Impact of Health Shocks Cushioned by Socioeconomic Status? The Case of Low Birthweight

Janet Currie and Rosemary Hyson

6998: Financial Incentives for Increasing Work and Income Among Low-Income Families

Rebecca Blank, David Card and Philip Robins

6997: Why are Racial and Ethnic Wage Gaps Larger for Men than for Women? Exploring the Role of Segregation

Kimberly Bayard, Judith Hellerstein, David Neumark and Kenneth Troske

6996: Minimum Wages and Employment in France and the United States

John Abowd, Francis Kramarz and David Margolis

6995: Demographic Change and Public Assistance Expenditures

Robert Moffitt

6994: Global Diversification, Growth and Welfare with Imperfectly Integrated Markets for Goods

Bernard Dumas and Raman Uppal

6993: The Economic Theory of Public Enforcement of Law

A. Mitchell Polinsky and Steven Shavell

6992: The Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime: Price-Setting Rules and Internationalized Production

Michael Devereux and Charles Engel

6991: The Social Security Trust Fund, the Riskless Interest Rate, and Capital Accumulation

Andrew Abel

6990: How Trade Patterns and Technology Flows Affect Productivity Growth

Wolfgang Keller

6989: Distributional Impacts of Proposed Changes to the Social Security System

Julia Lynn Coronado, Don Fullerton and Thomas Glass

6988: A Contribution to the Theory of Welfare Comparisons

Martin Weitzman

6987: Durable Goods Cycles

Andrew Caplin and John Leahy

6986: Dumping and Double Crossing: The (In)Effectiveness of Cost-Based Trade Policy Under Incomplete Information

Dobrin R. Kolev and Thomas Prusa

6985: Exchange Rates and Local Labor Markets

Linda Goldberg and Joseph Tracy

6984: Innovation and Market Value

Bronwyn Hall

6983: The Pre-Program Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Implications for Simple Program Evaluation Strategies

James Heckman and Jeffrey Smith

6982: Do Unemployment Insurance Recipients Actively Seek Work? Randomized Trials in Four U.S. States

Orley Ashenfelter, David Ashmore and Olivier Deschenes

6981: U.S. Wages in General Equilibrium: The Effects of Prices, Technology, and Factor Supplies, 1963-1991

James Harrigan and Rita Balaban

6980: Aging and the Growth of Long-Term Care

Darius Lakdawalla and Tomas Philipson

6979: Inflation and Welfare: Comment on Robert Lucas

Hans-Werner Sinn

6978: Trade, Technology and U.K. Wage Inequality

Jonathan Haskel and Matthew J. Slaughter

6977: The Tiebout Hypothesis and Majority Rule: An Empirical Analysis

Dennis Epple, Thomas Romer and Holger Sieg

6976: Do Indirect Costs Rates Matter?

Ronald Ehrenberg and Jaroslava K. Mykula