DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices

Eli Ofek and Matthew Richardson

No 8630, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper provides one potential explanation for the rise, persistence and eventual fall of internet stock prices. Specifically, we appeal to a model of heterogenous agents with varying degrees of beliefs about asset payoffs who are subject to short sales constraints. In this framework, it is possible that 'optimistic' investors overwhelm 'pessimistic' ones, leading to prices not reflecting fundamental values about cash flows summarized by aggregate beliefs. Empirical support for this explanation is provided by exploring the behavior of internet stock prices during the period January 1998 to November 2000. In particular, we document four important elements to our story: (i) the high level of internet stock prices given their underlying fundamentals, (ii) responses of stock prices to a shift towards potentially optimistic investors, (iii) empirical results consistent with shorting being at its maximum possible level for internet stocks, and (iv) the eventual fall, or bubble bursting, of internet stocks being tied to the increase in the number of sellers to the market via expiration of lockup agreements.

JEL-codes: G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk
Note: AP
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Published as Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1138, 06.
Published as De Bondt, Werner (ed.) The Psychology of World Equity Markets. Volume 2, The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics series, vol. 187 An Elgar Reference Collection. Cheltenham, U.K. and Northampton, MA: Elgar, 2005.

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w8630.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8630

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w8630

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().