Trading Volume: Implications of An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model

Andrew Lo () and Jiang Wang

No 8565, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We derive an intertemporal capital asset pricing model with multiple assets and heterogeneous investors, and explore its implications for the behavior of trading volume and asset returns. Assets contain two types of risks: market risk and the risk of changing market conditions. We show that investors trade only in two portfolios: the market portfolio, and a hedging portfolio, which allows them to hedge the dynamic risk. This implies that trading volume of individual assets exhibit a two-factor structure, and their factor loadings depend on their weights in the hedging portfolio. This allows us to empirically identify the hedging portfolio using volume data. We then test the two properties of the hedging portfolio: its return provides the best predictor of future market returns and its return together with the return of the market portfolio are the two risk factors determining the cross-section of asset returns.

JEL-codes: G11 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fin and nep-fmk
Note: AP
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Published as Andrew W. Lo & Jiang Wang, 2006. "Trading Volume: Implications of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2805-2840, December.

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Journal Article: Trading Volume: Implications of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (2006)
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