NBER Working Papers

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12409: Is Crime Contagious?

Jens Ludwig and Jeffrey Kling

12408: Bond Markets as Conduits for Capital Flows: How Does Asia Compare?

Barry Eichengreen and Pipat Luengnaruemitchai

12407: Signaling Credibility --- Choosing Optimal Debt and International Reserves

Joshua Aizenman and Jorge Fernández-Ruiz

12406: The Impact of Increased Utilization of HIV Drugs on Longevity and Medical Expenditures: An Assessment Based on Aggregate U.S. Time-Series Data

Frank Lichtenberg

12405: Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change

Troy Davig and Eric Leeper

12404: How Progressive is the U.S. Federal Tax System? A Historical and International Perspective

Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez

12403: Two Paths to Abstract Art: Kandinsky and Malevich

David Galenson

12402: Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules: Expanded Version

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martín Uribe

12401: The Chilean Pension Reform Turns 25: Lessons From the Social Protection Survey

Alberto Arenas de Mesa, David Bravo, Jere Behrman, Olivia Mitchell and Petra Todd

12400: The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions

Alisdair McKay and Ricardo Reis

12399: Renegotiation Without Holdup: Anticipating Spending and Infrastructure Concessions

Eduardo Engel, Ronald Fischer and Alexander Galetovic

12398: The Politics and Economics of Offshore Outsourcing

N. Gregory Mankiw and Phillip Swagel

12397: What Drives the Disposition Effect? An Analysis of a Long-Standing Preference-Based Explanation

Nicholas Barberis and Wei Xiong

12396: Why Do Migrants Return to Poor Countries? Evidence From Philippine Migrants%u2019 Responses to Exchange Rate Shocks

Dean Yang

12395: Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Takatoshi Ito and Kiyotaka Sato

12394: Big Business Stability and Economic Growth: Is What's Good for General Motors Good for America?

Kathy Fogel, Randall Morck and Bernard Yeung

12393: Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Original Sin in Emerging Countries: Déjà vu?

Michael Bordo

12392: Optimizing the Retirement Portfolio: Asset Allocation, Annuitization, and Risk Aversion

Wolfram J. Horneff, Raimond Maurer, Olivia Mitchell and Ivica Dus

12391: How Household Portfolios Evolve After Retirement: The Effect of Aging and Health Shocks

Courtney Coile and Kevin Milligan

12390: That's News to Me! Information Revelation in Professional Certification Markets

Ginger Zhe Jin, Andrew Kato and John List

12389: Financial Globalization, Governance, and the Evolution of the Home Bias

Bong-Chan Kho, René Stulz and Francis Warnock

12388: The Level and Composition of Consumption Over the Business Cycle: The Role of "Quasi-Fixed" Expenditures

Kerwin Kofi Charles and Melvin Stephens

12387: Handedness and Earnings

Christopher Ruebeck, Joseph Harrington and Robert Moffitt

12386: The Effect of Inheritance Receipt on Retirement

Jeffrey Brown, Courtney Coile and Scott Weisbenner

12385: Innovation, Diffusion, and Trade

Jonathan Eaton and Samuel Kortum

12384: Inflation Band Targeting and Optimal Inflation Contracts

Frederic Mishkin and Niklas Westelius

12383: Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics

Nicholas Bloom, John van Reenen and Stephen Bond

12382: ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration

Menzie Chinn and Robert Fairlie

12381: Railroads and Local Economic Development: The United States in the 1850s

Michael Haines and Robert Margo

12380: Using a Hedonic Model of Solar Radiation to Assess the Economic Effect of Climate Change: The Case of Mosel Valley Vineyards

Orley Ashenfelter and Karl Storchmann

12379: Charting the Economic Life Cycle

Ronald Lee, Sang-Hyop Lee and Andrew Mason

12378: The Loss Aversion / Narrow Framing Approach to the Equity Premium Puzzle

Nicholas Barberis and Ming Huang

12377: Using Target Efficiency to Select Program Participants and Risk-Factor Models: An Application to Child Mental Health Interventions for Preventing Future Crime

David Salkever, Stephen Johnston, Mustafa Karakus, Nicholas Ialongo and Eric Slade

12376: Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence From the Euro-Area Bond Market

Alessandro Beber, Michael W. Brandt and Kenneth A. Kavajecz

12375: Divorce, Fertility and the Shot Gun Marriage

Alberto Alesina and Paola Giuliano

12374: The Effects of HMO and Its For-Profit Expansion on the Survival of Specialized Hospital Services

Yu-Chu Shen

12373: China's Embrace of Globalization

Lee Branstetter and Nicholas Lardy

12372: Outsourcing Jobs? Multinationals and US Employment

Ann Harrison and Margaret McMillan

12371: Fifty Million Voters Can't Be Wrong: Economic Self-Interest and Redistributive Politics

Jacob Vigdor

12370: Evaluating Welfare with Nonlinear Prices

Peter C. Reiss and Matthew W. White

12369: Biological Gender Differences, Absenteeism and the Earning Gap

Andrea Ichino and Enrico Moretti

12368: The Effect of Court-Ordered Hiring Quotas on the Composition and Quality of Police

Justin McCrary

12367: Determinants and Consequences of Bargaining Power in Households

Leora Friedberg and Anthony Webb

12366: Welfare Work Requirements with Paternalistic Government Preferences

Robert Moffitt

12365: Why Has CEO Pay Increased So Much?

Xavier Gabaix and Augustin Landier

12364: A Model of Social Interactions and Endogenous Poverty Traps

Roland Fryer

12363: Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in the Era of Growing Financial and Trade Integration

Joshua Aizenman and Daniel Riera-Crichton

12362: In Search of Distress Risk

John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi

12361: Nursing Home Quality as a Public Good

David C. Grabowski, Jonathan Gruber and Joseph J. Angelelli

12360: A Skeptical Appraisal of Asset-Pricing Tests

Jonathan Lewellen, Stefan Nagel and Jay Shanken

12359: Agency Conflicts, Asset Substitution, and Securitization

Yingjin Hila Gan and Christopher Mayer

12358: Efficiency in Family Bargaining: Living Arrangements and Caregiving Decisions of Adult Children and Disabled Elderly Parents

Liliana E. Pezzin, Robert Pollak and Barbara Schone

12357: Sustainability, Debt Management, and Public Debt Policy in Japan

Takero Doi, Toshihiro Ihori and Kiyoshi Mitsui

12356: Inside the Family Firm: The Role of Families in Succession Decisions and Performance

Morten Bennedsen, Kasper M. Nielsen, Francisco Pérez-González and Daniel Wolfenzon

12355: Superstar Cities

Joseph Gyourko, Christopher Mayer and Todd Sinai

12354: Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms

Steven Davis, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin and Javier Miranda

12353: Assessing Structural VARs

Lawrence Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum and Robert Vigfusson

12352: Education and Health: Evaluating Theories and Evidence

David Cutler and Adriana Lleras-Muney

12351: The Dissaving of the Aged Revisited: The Case of Japan

Charles Horioka

12350: Time Zones as Cues for Coordination: Latitude, Longitude, and Letterman

Daniel Hamermesh, Caitlin Myers and Mark Pocock

12349: The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer

N. Gregory Mankiw

12348: The Catastrophic Effects of Natural Disasters on Insurance Markets

W Viscusi and Patricia Born

12347: Globalization and Poverty

Ann Harrison

12346: The Performance of International Equity Portfolios

Charles Thomas, Francis Warnock and Jon Wongswan

12345: Liquidity Insurance in a Financially Dollarized Economy

Eduardo Levy Yeyati

12344: On the General Relativity of Fiscal Language

Jerry Green and Laurence Kotlikoff

12343: Competing With the NYSE

William O. Brown, Jr., J. Harold Mulherin and Marc Weidenmier

12342: Capital Gains Taxes and Asset Prices: Capitalization or Lock-In?

Zhonglan Dai, Edward Maydew, Douglas Shackelford and Harold Zhang

12341: Consumption Over the Life Cycle: The Role of Annuities

Gary Hansen and Selahattin Imrohoroglu

12340: The Lending Channel in Emerging Economics: Are Foreign Banks Different?

Marco Arena, Carmen Reinhart and Francisco Vazquez

12339: Optimal Control of Externalities in the Presence of Income Taxation

Louis Kaplow

12338: Does Price Matter in Charitable Giving? Evidence From a Large-Scale Natural Field Experiment

Dean Karlan and John List

12337: A General Stochastic Volatility Model for the Pricing and Forecasting of Interest Rate Derivatives

Anders B. Trolle and Eduardo S. Schwartz

12336: Aggregate Implications of Lumpy Investment: New Evidence and a DSGE Model

Ruediger Bachmann, Ricardo Caballero and Eduardo Engel

12335: Hospital Competition, Managed Care and Mortality After Hospitalization for Medical Conditions: Evidence From Three States

José J. Escarce, Arvind K. Jain and Jeannette Rogowski

12334: Competitive Wages in a Match with Ordered Contracts

Muriel Niederle

12333: Optimal Currency Shares in International Reserves: The Impact of the Euro and the Prospects for the Dollar

Elias Papaioannou, Richard Portes and Gregorios Siourounis

12332: Separation of Powers and the Budget Process

Gene Grossman and Elhanan Helpman

12331: Do Rising Tides Lift All Prices? Income Inequality and Housing Affordability

Janna L. Matlack and Jacob Vigdor

12330: Do Borrowing Constraints Matter? An Analysis of Why the Permanent Income Hypothesis Does Not Apply in Japan

Miki Kohara and Charles Horioka

12329: The Effect of Female Education on Fertility and Infant Health: Evidence from School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of Birth

Justin McCrary and Heather Royer

12328: Artificial States

Alberto Alesina, William Easterly and Janina Matuszeski

12327: A Comparative Analysis of the Labor Market Impact of International Migration: Canada, Mexico, and the United States

Abdurrahman Aydemir and George Borjas

12326: Trade and Growth with Heterogenous Firms

Richard Baldwin and Frederic Robert-Nicoud

12325: International Migration, Remittances, and Household Investment: Evidence from Philippine Migrants' Exchange Rate Shocks

Dean Yang

12324: Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?

James Stock and Mark Watson

12323: Federal Policy and the Rise in Disability Enrollment: Evidence for the VA's Disability Compensation Program

Mark Duggan, Robert Rosenheck and Perry Singleton

12322: Globalization and Endogenous Firm Scope

Volker Nocke and Stephen Yeaple

12321: New Evidence on Gender Difference in Promotion Rates: An Empirical Analysis of a Sample of New Hires

Francine Blau and Jed DeVaro

12320: Empirical Studies of Innovation in the Knowledge Driven Economy

Bronwyn Hall and Jacques Mairesse

12319: Inflation as a Redistribution Shock: Effects on Aggregates and Welfare

Matthias Doepke and Martin Schneider

12318: Contributions of Zvi Griliches

James Heckman

12317: Media Markets and Localism: Does Local News en Español Boost Hispanic Voter Turnout?

Felix Oberholzer-Gee and Joel Waldfogel

12316: Globalization, De-Industrialization and Mexican Exceptionalism 1750-1879

Rafael Dobado González, Aurora Gómez Galvarriato and Jeffrey Williamson

12315: People Flows in Globalization

Richard Freeman

12314: An Exploration of Technology Diffusion

Diego Comin and Bart Hobiijn

12313: Socially Optimal Districting: An Empirical Investigation

Stephen Coate and Brian Knight

12312: Cultures of Corruption: Evidence From Diplomatic Parking Tickets

Raymond Fisman and Edward Miguel

12311: The Boskin Commission Report: A Retrospective One Decade Later

Robert Gordon

12310: Worker Needs and Voice in the US and the UK

Alex Bryson and Richard Freeman