NBER Working Papers

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23480: Robust Bond Risk Premia

Michael Bauer and James Hamilton

23479: Quantifying the Life-cycle Benefits of a Prototypical Early Childhood Program

Jorge Luis Garcia, James Heckman, Duncan Ermini Leaf and María José Prados

23478: An Evaluation of Bias in Three Measures of Teacher Quality: Value-Added, Classroom Observations, and Student Surveys

Andrew Bacher-Hicks, Mark J. Chin, Thomas J. Kane and Doug Staiger

23477: World War II and the Industrialization of the American South

Taylor Jaworski

23476: Complex Asset Markets

Andrea Eisfeldt, Hanno Lustig and Lei Zhang

23475: Insurgent Learning

Francesco Trebbi, Eric Weese, Austin L. Wright and Andrew Shaver

23474: Taper Tantrums: QE, its Aftermath and Emerging Market Capital Flows

Anusha Chari, Karlye Dilts Stedman and Christian Lundblad

23473: Tax Advantages and Imperfect Competition in Auctions for Municipal Bonds

Daniel Garrett, Andrey Ordin, James W. Roberts and Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato

23472: Who Is Screened Out? Application Costs and the Targeting of Disability Programs

ManasI Deshpande and Yue Li

23471: Did the Affordable Care Act Young Adult Provision Affect Labor Market Outcomes? Analysis Using Tax Data

Bradley Heim, Ithai Lurie and Kosali Simon

23470: Measuring and Bounding Experimenter Demand

Jonathan de Quidt, Johannes Haushofer and Christopher Roth

23469: Acquiring Banking Networks

Ross Levine, Chen Lin and Zigan Wang

23468: Exit, Voice or Loyalty? An Investigation into Mandated Portability of Front-Loaded Private Health Plans

Juan Pablo Atal, Hanming Fang, Martin Karlsson and Nicolas Ziebarth

23467: Flexibility of Adjustment to Shocks: Economic Growth and Volatility of Middle-Income Countries Before and After the Global Financial Crisis of 2008

Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak, Gemma Estrada and Shu Tian

23466: Disability Benefits, Consumption Insurance, and Household Labor Supply

David Autor, Andreas Kostøl, Magne Mogstad and Bradley Setzler

23465: Access and Use of Contraception and Its Effects on Women’s Outcomes in the U.S

Martha Bailey and Jason Lindo

23464: Are U.S. Companies Too Short-Term Oriented? Some Thoughts

Steven Kaplan

23463: School Performance, Accountability and Waiver Reforms: Evidence from Louisiana

Thomas Dee and Elise Dizon-Ross

23462: The Effects of School Reform Under NCLB Waivers: Evidence from Focus Schools in Kentucky

Sade Bonilla and Thomas Dee

23461: Differentiated Accountability and Education Production: Evidence from NCLB Waivers

Steven W. Hemelt and Brian Jacob

23460: Governance and Stakeholders

Vikas Mehrotra and Randall Morck

23459: Homophily in Entrepreneurial Team Formation

Paul Gompers, Kevin Huang and Sophie Calder-Wang

23458: Short Run Gravity

James Anderson and Yoto Yotov

23457: Long Run Growth of Financial Technology

Maryam Farboodi and Laura Veldkamp

23456: On the Geography of Global Value Chains

Pol Antras and Alonso de Gortari

23455: Asset Pricing in the Quest for the New El Dorado

Daniel Andrei and Bruce I. Carlin

23454: And the Children Shall Lead: Gender Diversity and Performance in Venture Capital

Paul Gompers and Sophie Calder-Wang

23453: The Impact of Student Debt on Education, Career, and Marriage Choices of Female Lawyers

Holger Sieg and Yu Wang

23452: An Equilibrium Model of Housing and Mortgage Markets with State-Contingent Lending Contracts

Tomasz Piskorski and Alexei Tchistyi

23451: Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel

Adrien Auclert

23450: The Effect of Insurance Expansions on Smoking Cessation Medication Prescriptions: Evidence from ACA Medicaid Expansions

Johanna Maclean, Michael Pesko and Steven Hill

23449: Speculative Dynamics of Prices and Volume

Anthony DeFusco, Charles G. Nathanson and Eric Zwick

23448: Tempered Particle Filtering

Edward Herbst and Frank Schorfheide

23447: The Life Cycle of Scholarly Articles across Fields of Research

Sebastian Galiani and Ramiro Gálvez

23446: The Effect of Malpractice Law on Physician Supply: Evidence from Negligence-Standard Reforms

Michael D. Frakes, Matthew B. Frank and Seth Seabury

23445: Does Choice Increase Information? Evidence from Online School Search Behavior

Michael Lovenheim and Patrick Walsh

23444: Health Plan Payment in U.S. Marketplaces: Regulated Competition with a Weak Mandate

Timothy Layton, Ellen J. Montz and Mark Shepard

23443: Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs

Jonathan Davis and Sara B. Heller

23442: Earning your CAP: A Comprehensive Analysis of The University of Texas System's Coordinated Admissions Program

Rodney J. Andrews and John Thompson

23441: China's Lost Generation: Changes in Beliefs and their Intergenerational Transmission

Gérard Roland and David Yang

23440: International Monetary Relations: Taking Finance Seriously

Maurice Obstfeld and Alan Taylor

23439: How Do Peers Impact Learning? An Experimental Investigation of Peer-to-Peer Teaching and Ability Tracking

Erik Kimbrough, Andrew McGee and Hitoshi Shigeoka

23438: The Effect of Prior Choices on Expectations and Subsequent Portfolio Decisions

Camelia Kuhnen, Sarah Rudorf and Bernd Weber

23437: Management and Student Achievement: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment

Roland Fryer

23436: Deterrence and the Optimal Use of Prison, Parole, and Probation

A. Mitchell Polinsky and Paul N. Riskind

23435: Nation-Building, Nationalism and Wars

Alberto Alesina, Bryony Reich and Alessandro Riboni

23434: Price Risk, Production Flexibility, and Liquidity Management: Evidence from Electricity Generating Firms

Chen Lin, Thomas Schmid and Michael Weisbach

23433: The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results

Michael Clemens and Jennifer Hunt

23432: Innovative Originality, Profitability, and Stock Returns

David Hirshleifer, Po-Hsuan Hsu and Dongmei Li

23431: Innovation Policy in a Networked World

Olav Sorenson

23430: Finance and Growth: Household Savings, Public Investment, and Public Health in Late Nineteenth-Century New Jersey

Howard Bodenhorn

23429: Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter

James Hamilton

23428: Financial Intermediation in Private Equity: How Well Do Funds of Funds Perform?

Robert S. Harris, Tim Jenkinson, Steven Kaplan and Ruediger Stucke

23427: The Lerner Symmetry Theorem: Generalizations and Qualifications

Arnaud Costinot and Iván Werning

23426: The Cross-Border Spillover Effects of Recreational Marijuana Legalization

Zhuang Hao and Benjamin Cowan

23425: Straight Talkers and Vague Talkers: The Effects of Managerial Style in Earnings Conference Calls

Michał Dzieliński, Alexander Wagner and Richard Zeckhauser

23424: Monetary Policy through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market

Ali Ozdagli and Michael Weber

23423: A World Equilibrium Model of the Oil Market

Gideon Bornstein, Per Krusell and Sergio Rebelo

23422: The Causes and Costs of Misallocation

Diego Restuccia and Richard Rogerson

23421: Racial Bias in Bail Decisions

David Arnold, Will Dobbie and Crystal S. Yang

23420: Innovation-Led Transitions in Energy Supply

Derek Lemoine

23419: Imperfect Financial Markets and Shareholder Incentives in Partial and General Equilibrium

Elias Albagli, Christian Hellwig and Aleh Tsyvinski

23418: Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise

Charles Manski

23417: Handle with Care: The Local Air Pollution Costs of Coal Storage

Akshaya Jha and Nicholas Muller

23416: Australian Squatters, Convicts, and Capitalists: Dividing Up a Fast-Growing Frontier Pie 1821-1871

Laura Panza and Jeffrey Williamson

23415: From Extreme to Mainstream: How Social Norms Unravel

Leonardo Bursztyn, Georgy Egorov and Stefano Fiorin

23414: Status Goods: Experimental Evidence from Platinum Credit Cards

Leonardo Bursztyn, Bruno Ferman, Stefano Fiorin, Martin Kanz and Gautam Rao

23413: False Alarm? Estimating the Marginal Value of Health Signals

Toshiaki Iizuka, Katsuhiko Nishiyama, Brian Chen and Karen Eggleston

23412: Gender Differences in the Benefits of an Influential Early Childhood Program

Jorge Luis Garcia, James Heckman and Anna L. Ziff

23411: Policy Uncertainty In Japan

Elif Arbatli, Steven Davis, Arata Ito and Naoko Miake

23410: The Effect of Natural Disasters on Economic Activity in US Counties: A Century of Data

Leah Boustan, Matthew Kahn, Paul Rhode and Maria Lucia Yanguas

23409: The Distributional Consequences of Large Devaluations

Javier Cravino and Andrei Levchenko

23408: Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Nonmarital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom

Melissa Kearney and Riley Wilson

23407: Lessons Unlearned? Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets

Laura Alfaro, Gonzalo Asis, Anusha Chari and Ugo Panizza

23406: Unemployment Insurance and Reservation Wages: Evidence from Administrative Data

Thomas Le Barbanchon, Roland Rathelot and Alexandra Roulet

23405: Push and Pull: Disability Insurance, Regional Labor Markets, and Benefit Generosity in Canada and the United States

Kevin Milligan and Tammy Schirle

23404: Co-authorship in Economic History and Economics: Are We Any Different?

Andrew Seltzer and Daniel Hamermesh

23403: Can at Scale Drug Provision Improve the Health of the Targeted in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Adrienne Lucas and Nicholas Wilson

23402: Are Recessions Good for Staffing in Nursing Homes?

R. Tamara Konetzka, Karen B. Lasater, Edward Norton and Rachel M. Werner

23401: Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium

Oleg Itskhoki and Dmitry Mukhin

23400: Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization

Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Rodrigo Soares and Gabriel Ulyssea

23399: Gallman Revisited: Blacksmithing and American Manufacturing, 1850-1870

Jeremy Atack and Robert Margo

23398: Digital Labor Markets and Global Talent Flows

John Horton, William Kerr and Christopher Stanton

23397: Racial Differences in American Women's Labor Market Outcomes: A Long-Run View

William Collins and Michael Q. Moody

23396: The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms

David Autor, David Dorn, Lawrence Katz, Christina Patterson and John van Reenen

23395: African American Intergenerational Economic Mobility Since 1880

William Collins and Marianne Wanamaker

23394: Replicating Anomalies

Kewei Hou, Chen Xue and Lu Zhang

23393: Born to Lead? The Effect of Birth Order on Non-Cognitive Abilities

Sandra Black, Erik Grönqvist and Björn Öckert

23392: Lead and Juvenile Delinquency: New Evidence from Linked Birth, School and Juvenile Detention Records

Anna Aizer and Janet Currie

23391: Stimulus Effects of Investment Tax Incentives: Production versus Purchases

Christopher House, Ana-Maria Mocanu and Matthew Shapiro

23390: Evaluation of the Reggio Approach to Early Education

Pietro Biroli, Daniela Del Boca, James Heckman, Lynne Pettler Heckman, Yu Kyung. Koh, Sylvi Kuperman, Sidharth Moktan, Chiara Pronzato and Anna Ziff

23389: Macroeconomic Effects of Medicare

Juan Carlos Conesa, Daniela Costa, Parisa Kamali, Timothy Kehoe, Vegard M. Nygard, Gajendran Raveendranathan and Akshar Saxena

23388: Health Insurance and Traffic Fatalities: The Effects of Substance Use Disorder Parity Laws

Ioana Popovici, Johanna Maclean and Michael French

23387: Firm Dynamics and Immigration: The Case of High-Skilled Immigration

Michael Waugh

23386: Measuring the Welfare Effects of Residential Energy Efficiency Programs

Hunt Allcott and Michael Greenstone

23385: The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence

Alberto Alesina, Omar Barbiero, Carlo Favero, Francesco Giavazzi and Matteo Paradisi

23384: Globalization and Executive Compensation

Wolfgang Keller and William Olney

23383: Decentralization and Efficiency of Subsidy Targeting: Evidence from Chiefs in Rural Malawi

Pia M. Basurto, Pascaline Dupas and Jonathan Robinson

23382: How Transaction Costs Obstruct Collective Action: Evidence from California’s Groundwater

Andrew Ayres, Eric Edwards and Gary Libecap

23381: The Dynamics of Gender Earnings Differentials: Evidence from Establishment Data

Erling Barth, Sari Pekkala Kerr and Claudia Olivetti