NBER Working Papers

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23327: Did the Reform Fix the London Fix Problem?

Takatoshi Ito and Masahiro Yamada

23326: Estimating the Gains from New Rail Transit Investment: A Machine Learning Tree Approach

Seungwoo Chin, Matthew Kahn and Hyungsik Moon

23325: Is Europe an Optimal Political Area?

Alberto Alesina, Guido Tabellini and Francesco Trebbi

23324: Offshore Profit Shifting and Aggregate Measurement: Balance of Payments, Foreign Investment, Productivity, and the Labor Share

Fatih Guvenen, Raymond J. Mataloni, Jr., Dylan G. Rassier and Kim Ruhl

23323: China's GDP Growth May be Understated

Hunter Clark, Maxim Pinkovskiy and Xavier Sala-i-Martin

23322: Population and Civil War

Daron Acemoglu, Leopoldo Fergusson and Simon Johnson

23321: Top Income Inequality in the 21st Century: Some Cautionary Notes

Fatih Guvenen and Greg Kaplan

23320: The Productivity Advantage of Serial Entrepreneurs

Kathryn Shaw and Anders Sørensen

23319: Evolution of Assessments of the Economics of Global Warming: Changes in the DICE model, 1992 – 2017

William Nordhaus

23318: Distributional Impacts of Energy Taxes

William Pizer and Steven Sexton

23317: Is Post-Crisis Bond Liquidity Lower?

Mike Anderson and René Stulz

23316: Monetary Policy and Global Banking

Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina

23315: Accounting for Growth in the Age of the Internet: The Importance of Output-Saving Technical Change

Charles Hulten and Leonard Nakamura

23314: Sovereign Default Risk and Firm Heterogeneity

Cristina Arellano, Yan Bai and Luigi Bocola

23313: The Effects of E-Cigarette Minimum Legal Sale Age Laws on Youth Substance Use

Dhaval Dave, Bo Feng and Michael Pesko

23312: Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited

Mark Aguiar, Satyajit Chatterjee, Harold Cole and Zachary Stangebye

23311: Measuring the Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance and Asset Purchases on Financial Markets

Eric Swanson

23310: Government Debt and Corporate Leverage: International Evidence

Irem Demirci, Jennifer Huang and Clemens Sialm

23309: The Effects of Financial Development on Foreign Direct Investment

Rodolphe Desbordes and Shang-Jin Wei

23308: Do Payroll Tax Breaks Stimulate Formality? Evidence from Colombia’s Reform

Adriana Kugler, Maurice Kugler and Luis Omar Herrera Prada

23307: The Long Reach of Education: Health, Wealth, and DI Participation

James Poterba, Steven Venti and David Wise

23306: Underestimating the Real Growth of GDP, Personal Income and Productivity

Martin Feldstein

23305: Asset Allocation in Bankruptcy

Shai Bernstein, Emanuele Colonnelli and Ben Iverson

23304: The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Rupal Kamdar

23303: Subrogation and the Theory of Insurance When Suits Can Be Brought for Losses Suffered

A. Mitchell Polinsky and Steven Shavell

23302: Financial Intermediary Capital

Adriano Rampini and S Viswanathan

23301: Roots of Autocracy

Oded Galor and Marc Klemp

23300: What Drives Differences in Management?

Nicholas Bloom, Erik Brynjolfsson, Lucia Foster, Ron Jarmin, Megha Patnaik, Itay Saporta-Eksten and John van Reenen

23299: Channels of Impact: User Reviews when Quality is Dynamic and Managers Respond

Judith Chevalier, Yaniv Dover and Dina Mayzlin

23298: Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias

Isaiah Andrews and Maximilian Kasy

23297: Seeing and Hearing: The Impacts of New York City’s Universal Prekindergarten Program on the Health of Low-Income Children

Kai Hong, Kacie Dragan and Sherry Glied

23296: The Value of Flexible Work: Evidence from Uber Drivers

M. Keith Chen, Judith Chevalier, Peter Rossi and Emily Oehlsen

23295: Citywide Effects of High-Occupancy Vehicle Restrictions: Evidence from the Elimination of ‘3-in-1’ in Jakarta

Rema Hanna, Gabriel Kreindler and Benjamin Olken

23294: Risk Aversion as a Perceptual Bias

Mel Win Khaw, Ziang Li and Michael Woodford

23293: What can we Learn from Euro-Dollar Tweets?

Vahid Gholampour and Eric van Wincoop

23292: Fifty Years Of Growth In American Consumption, Income, And Wages

Bruce Sacerdote

23291: The Cross Section of Bank Value

Mark Egan, Stefan Lewellen and Adi Sunderam

23290: Strengthening National Data to Better Measure What We Are Buying in Health Care: Reconciling National Health Expenditures with Detailed Survey Data

Allison B. Rosen, Kaushik Ghosh, Emily S. Pape, Marcelo Coca Perraillon, Irina Bondarenko, Kassandra L. Messer, Trivellore Raghunathan, Susan T. Stewart and David Cutler

23289: Migrants and the Making of America: The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Immigration during the Age of Mass Migration

Sandra Sequeira, Nathan Nunn and Nancy Qian

23288: Fintech, Regulatory Arbitrage, and the Rise of Shadow Banks

Greg Buchak, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski and Amit Seru

23287: Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis

Oscar Jorda, Björn Richter, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

23286: Life Insurance and Life Settlement Markets with Overconfident Policyholders

Hanming Fang and Zenan Wu

23285: Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets

Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo

23284: Students in Distress: Labor Market Shocks, Student Loan Default, and Federal Insurance Programs

Holger M. Mueller and Constantine Yannelis

23283: Horizontal and Vertical Polarization: Task-Specific Technological Change in a Multi-Sector Economy

Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee and Yongseok Shin

23282: What do Editors Maximize? Evidence from Four Leading Economics Journals

David Card and Stefano DellaVigna

23281: Monetary Policy, Bounded Rationality, and Incomplete Markets

Emmanuel Farhi and Iván Werning

23280: Mapping the Interconnectedness between EU Banks and Shadow Banking Entities

Jorge Abad, Marco D'Errico, Neill Killeen, Vera Luz, Tuomas Peltonen, Richard Portes and Teresa Urbano

23279: Urban Productivity in the Developing World

Edward Glaeser and Wentao Xiong

23278: The Political Economy of Heterogeneity and Conflict

Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg

23277: Do The Effects of Nudges Persist? Theory and Evidence from 38 Natural Field Experiments

Alec Brandon, Paul Ferraro, John List, Robert Metcalfe, Michael Price and Florian Rundhammer

23276: Text as Data

Matthew Gentzkow, Bryan T. Kelly and Matt Taddy

23275: Medium- and Long-Term Educational Consequences of Alternative Conditional Cash Transfer Designs: Experimental Evidence from Colombia

Felipe Barrera-Osorio, Leigh Linden and Juan Saavedra

23274: Demand for Information and Asset Pricing

Azi Ben-Rephael, Bruce I. Carlin, Zhi Da and Ryan Israelsen

23273: Competing for Capital: Auditing and Credibility in Financial Reporting

Raphael Boleslavsky, Bruce I. Carlin and Christopher Cotton

23272: Tropical Forests, Tipping Points, and the Social Cost of Deforestation

Sergio L. Franklin, Jr. and Robert Pindyck

23271: Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature Across U.S. Climate Regions

Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller and David Molitor

23270: Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy

Martin Beraja, Andreas Fuster, Erik Hurst and Joseph Vavra

23269: Early Effects of the Affordable Care Act on Health Care Access, Risky Health Behaviors, and Self-Assessed Health

Charles Courtemanche, James Marton, Benjamin Ukert, Aaron Yelowitz and Daniela Zapata

23268: What is a Patent Worth? Evidence from the U.S. Patent “Lottery”

Joan Farre-Mensa, Deepak Hegde and Alexander Ljungqvist

23267: Exchange Rate Prediction Redux: New Models, New Data, New Currencies

Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn, Antonio Garcia Pascual and Yi Zhang

23266: Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound

Manuel Amador, Javier Bianchi, Luigi Bocola and Fabrizio Perri

23265: Minimizing Justified Envy in School Choice: The Design of New Orleans' OneApp

Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Yeon-Koo Che, Parag Pathak, Alvin Roth and Olivier Tercieux

23264: Living Up to Expectations: How Job Training Made Women Better Off and Men Worse Off

Paloma Acevedo, Guillermo Cruces, Paul Gertler and Sebastian Martinez

23263: Revising Infant Mortality Rates for the Early 20th Century United States

Katherine Eriksson, Gregory Niemesh and Melissa Thomasson

23262: Annuity Options in Public Pension Plans: The Curious Case of Social Security Leveling

Robert L. Clark, Robert Hammond, Melinda Morrill and David Vanderweide

23261: Characterizing Global Value Chains: Production Length and Upstreamness

Zhi Wang, Shang-Jin Wei, Xinding Yu and Kunfu Zhu

23260: Pass-Through as a Test for Market Power: An Application to Solar Subsidies

Jacquelyn Pless and Arthur A. van Benthem

23259: Does Quebec's Subsidized Child Care Policy Give Boys and Girls an Equal Start?

Michael J. Kottelenberg and Steven Lehrer

23258: Is the Internet Causing Political Polarization? Evidence from Demographics

Levi Boxell, Matthew Gentzkow and Jesse Shapiro

23257: The Impact of Information Technology on the Diffusion of New Pharmaceuticals

Kenneth Arrow, Kamran Bilir and Alan T. Sorensen

23256: Memory, Attention, and Choice

Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

23255: Corporate Culture: Evidence from the Field

John R. Graham, Campbell Harvey, Jillian Popadak and Shivaram Rajgopal

23254: Myopia and Discounting

Xavier Gabaix and David Laibson

23253: Reevaluating Agricultural Productivity Gaps with Longitudinal Microdata

Joan Hamory Hicks, Marieke Kleemans, Nicholas Y. Li and Edward Miguel

23252: How Debit Cards Enable the Poor to Save More

Pierre Bachas, Paul Gertler, Sean Higgins and Enrique Seira Bejarano

23251: Globalization Policies and Israel’s Brain Drain

Assaf Razin

23250: Vertical and Horizontal Redistributions from a Carbon Tax and Rebate

Julie Anne Cronin, Don Fullerton and Steven Sexton

23249: Firm Selection and Corporate Cash Holdings

Juliane Begenau and Berardino Palazzo

23248: CEO Behavior and Firm Performance

Oriana Bandiera, Stephen Hansen, Andrea Prat and Raffaella Sadun

23247: Training Contracts, Employee Turnover, and the Returns from Firm-sponsored General Training

Mitchell Hoffman and Stephen Burks

23246: International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages

Raphael Auer, Andrei Levchenko and Philip Sauré

23245: Financial Cycles with Heterogeneous Intermediaries

Nuno Coimbra and Helene Rey

23244: A Head-to-Head Comparison of Augmented Wealth in Germany and the United States

Timm Bönke, Markus Grabka, Carsten Schröder and Edward N. Wolff

23243: Deterring Property Tax Delinquency in Philadelphia: An Experimental Evaluation of Nudge Strategies

Michael Chirico, Robert Inman, Charles Loeffler, John MacDonald and Holger Sieg

23242: When Harry Fired Sally: The Double Standard in Punishing Misconduct

Mark L. Egan, Gregor Matvos and Amit Seru

23241: The Impact of Public and Private Research Support on Premature Cancer Mortality and Hospitalization in the U.S., 1999-2013

Frank Lichtenberg

23240: Worker Overconfidence: Field Evidence and Implications for Employee Turnover and Returns from Training

Mitchell Hoffman and Stephen Burks

23239: Urban Water Disinfection and Mortality Decline in Developing Countries

Sonia Bhalotra, Alberto Diaz-Cayeros, Grant Miller, Alfonso Miranda and Atheendar Venkataramani

23238: Real Anomalies

Jules van Binsbergen and Christian Opp

23237: Trade Policy and Redistribution when Preferences are Non-Homothetic

Quy-Toan Do and Andrei Levchenko

23236: The Earnings of Undocumented Immigrants

George Borjas

23235: Financial Markets and Fiscal Unions

Patrick Kehoe and Elena Pastorino

23234: The Emergence of Market Structure

Maryam Farboodi, Gregor Jarosch and Robert Shimer

23233: Intangible Capital and Measured Productivity

Ellen McGrattan

23232: Poorly Measured Confounders are More Useful on the Left Than on the Right

Zhuan Pei, Jorn-Steffen Pischke and Hannes Schwandt

23231: Asset Mispricing

Kurt Lewis, Francis Longstaff and Lubomir Petrasek

23230: The Economics of Non-Marital Childbearing and The “Marriage Premium for Children”

Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine

23229: Are the Rich More Selfish than the Poor, or Do They Just Have More Money? A Natural Field Experiment

James Andreoni, Nikos Nikiforakis and Jan Stoop

23228: The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC

Ulrike Malmendier, Stefan Nagel and Zhen Yan