NBER Working Papers

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25762: Trade Wars: What do they Mean? Why are they Happening Now? What are the Costs?

Aaditya Mattoo and Robert Staiger

25761: The Local Aggregate Effects of Minimum Wage Increases

Daniel Cooper, Maria Luengo-Prado and Jonathan Parker

25760: Making Carbon Taxation a Generational Win Win

Laurence Kotlikoff, Felix Kubler, Andrey Polbin, Jeffrey D. Sachs and Simon Scheidegger

25759: Is Blinded Review Enough? How Gendered Outcomes Arise Even Under Anonymous Evaluation

Julian Kolev, Yuly Fuentes-Medel and Fiona Murray

25758: The Impact of Parental Involvement Laws on Minor Abortion

Ted Joyce, Robert Kaestner and Jason Ward

25757: Rational Illiquidity and Consumption: Theory and Evidence from Income Tax Withholding and Refunds

Michael Gelman, Shachar Kariv, Matthew Shapiro and Dan Silverman

25756: What Happened to U.S. Business Dynamism?

Ufuk Akcigit and Sina T. Ates

25755: Ten Facts on Declining Business Dynamism and Lessons from Endogenous Growth Theory

Ufuk Akcigit and Sina T. Ates

25754: A Forensic Examination of China's National Accounts

Wei Chen, Xilu Chen, Chang-Tai Hsieh and Zheng Song

25753: The Returns to Early-life Interventions for Very Low Birth Weight Children

Eric Chyn, Samantha Gold and Justine Hastings

25752: Censorship, Family Planning, and the Historical Fertility Transition

Brian Beach and W Hanlon

25751: Can the Market Multiply and Divide? Non-Proportional Thinking in Financial Markets

Kelly Shue and Richard R. Townsend

25750: How Cognitive Ability and Financial Literacy Shape the Demand for Financial Advice at Older Ages

Hugh Hoikwang Kim, Raimond Maurer and Olivia Mitchell

25749: Job Displacement Insurance and (the Lack of) Consumption-Smoothing

Francois Gerard and Joana Naritomi

25748: Why is Productivity Correlated with Competition?

Matthew Backus

25747: Reflexivity in Credit Markets

Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson and Lawrence Jin

25746: Dishonest Behavior: Sin Big or Go Home

Jason Aimone, Brittany Ward and James West

25745: Tax Professionals: Tax-Evasion Facilitators or Information Hubs?

Marco Battaglini, Luigi Guiso, Chiara Lacava and Eleonora Patacchini

25744: Five Facts about Beliefs and Portfolios

Stefano Giglio, Matteo Maggiori, Johannes Stroebel and Stephen Utkus

25743: Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics without the Phillips Curve

Roger Farmer and Giovanni Nicolò

25742: In-Text Patent Citations: A User’s Guide

Kevin Bryan, Yasin Ozcan and Bhaven Sampat

25741: Trade, Technology, and the Great Divergence

Kevin O'Rourke, Ahmed Rahman and Alan Taylor

25740: Taxation and Migration: Evidence and Policy Implications

Henrik Kleven, Camille Landais, Mathilde Muñoz and Stefanie Stantcheva

25739: The Return to Hours Worked Within and Across Occupations: Implications for the Gender Wage Gap

Jeffrey Denning, Brian Jacob, Lars Lefgren and Christian vom Lehn

25738: Combining Administrative and Survey Data to Improve Income Measurement

Bruce Meyer and Nikolas Mittag

25737: An Empirical Total Survey Error Decomposition Using Data Combination

Bruce Meyer and Nikolas Mittag

25736: Does Class Size Matter? How, and at What Cost?

Desire Kedagni, Kala Krishna, Rigissa Megalokonomou and Yingyan Zhao

25735: Intergenerational Mobility between and within Canada and the United States

Marie Connolly, Miles Corak and Catherine Haeck

25734: Hedging Climate Change News

Robert Engle, Stefano Giglio, Bryan T. Kelly, Heebum Lee and Johannes Stroebel

25733: Workers' Employment Rates and Pension Reforms in France: the Role of Implicit Labor Taxation

Didier Blanchet, Antoine Bozio, Simon Rabate and Muriel Roger

25732: "And Yet It Moves": Intergenerational Mobility in Italy

Paolo Acciari, Alberto Polo and Giovanni Violante

25731: Can Simple Psychological Interventions Increase Preventive Health Investment?

Johannes Haushofer, Anett John and Kate Orkin

25730: Schools, Neighborhoods, and the Long-Run Effect of Crime-Prone Peers

Stephen Billings and Mark Hoekstra

25729: Throwing the Baby out with the Drinking Water: Unintended Consequences of Arsenic Mitigation Efforts in Bangladesh

Nina Buchmann, Erica M. Field, Rachel Glennerster and Reshmaan N. Hussam

25728: The Impact of Global Warming on Rural-Urban Migrations: Evidence from Global Big Data

Giovanni Peri and Akira Sasahara

25727: How the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake Shaped Economic Activity in the American West

Philipp Ager, Katherine Eriksson, Casper Hansen and Lars Lønstrup

25726: Fast, "Robust", and Approximately Correct: Estimating Mixed Demand Systems

Bernard Salanié and Frank A. Wolak

25725: Taxing Top Incomes in a World of Ideas

Charles Jones

25724: The Democracy Effect: a Weights-Based Identification Strategy

Pedro Dal Bó, Andrew Foster and Kenju Kamei

25723: Risk Preferences of Children and Adolescents in Relation to Gender, Cognitive Skills, Soft Skills, and Executive Functions

James Andreoni, Amalia Di Girolamo, John List, Claire Mackevicius and Anya Samek

25722: Heterogeneous (Mis-) Perceptions of Energy Costs: Implications for Measurement and Policy Design

Sébastien Houde and Erica Myers

25721: Global Capital Flows Cycle: Impact on Gross and Net Flows

Jonathan Davis, Giorgio Valente and Eric van Wincoop

25720: Policy News and Stock Market Volatility

Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis and Kyle J. Kost

25719: Labor Market Power

David Berger, Kyle Herkenhoff and Simon Mongey

25718: Testing the Effectiveness of Consumer Financial Disclosure: Experimental Evidence from Savings Accounts

Paul D. Adams, Stefan Hunt, Christopher Palmer and Redis Zaliauskas

25717: Investor Ideology

Patrick Bolton, Tao Li, Enrichetta Ravina and Howard L. Rosenthal

25716: How Common are Electoral Cycles in Criminal Sentencing?

Christian Dippel and Mikhail Poyker

25715: Do Private Prisons Affect Criminal Sentencing?

Christian Dippel and Mikhail Poyker

25714: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Returns: Time-Varying Risk Regimes

Charles Calomiris and Harry Mamaysky

25713: The Patent Troll: Benign Middleman or Stick-Up Artist?

David Abrams, Ufuk Akcigit, Gokhan Oz and Jeremy Pearce

25712: Relinquishing Riches: Auctions vs Informal Negotiations in Texas Oil and Gas Leasing

Thomas R. Covert and Richard Sweeney

25711: The Income Elasticity for Nutrition: Evidence from Unconditional Cash Transfers in Kenya

Ingvild Almås, Johannes Haushofer and Anders Kjelsrud

25710: Capital Controls as Macro-prudential Policy in a Large Open Economy

Jonathan Davis and Michael Devereux

25709: Local Labor Markets in Canada and the United States

David Albouy, Alex Chernoff, Chandler Lutz and Casey Warman

25708: Birds of a Feather: Estimating the Value of Statistical Life from Dual-Earner Families

Joseph Aldy

25707: Wishful Thinking

Andrew Caplin and John Leahy

25706: Capacity Constraints and the Provision of Public Services: The Case of Workers in Public Health Clinics

Matthew Harris, Yinan Liu and Ian McCarthy

25705: Labor Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys

Rafael Di Tella and Dani Rodrik

25704: Engaging Teachers with Technology Increased Achievement, Bypassing Teachers Did Not

Sabrin Beg, Adrienne Lucas, Waqas Halim and Umar Saif

25703: The Industry Anatomy of the Transatlantic Productivity Growth Slowdown

Robert Gordon and Hassan Sayed

25702: Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market

Itzhak Ben-David, Pascal Towbin and Sebastian Weber

25701: Market Frictions, Arbitrage, and the Capitalization of Amenities

Amine Ouazad and Romain Ranciere

25700: The Intergenerational Effects of a Large Wealth Shock: White Southerners After the Civil War

Philipp Ager, Leah Boustan and Katherine Eriksson

25699: Capitalization as a Two-Part Tariff: The Role of Zoning

Spencer Banzhaf and Kyle Mangum

25698: Risk Management in Financial Institutions

Adriano Rampini, S Viswanathan and Guillaume Vuillemey

25697: Coming out in America: AIDS, Politics, and Cultural Change

Raquel Fernandez, Sahar Parsa and Martina Viarengo

25696: Costs of Energy Efficiency Mandates Can Reverse the Sign of Rebound

Don Fullerton and Chi Ta

25695: GDP-B: Accounting for the Value of New and Free Goods in the Digital Economy

Erik Brynjolfsson, Avinash Collis, Walter Diewert, Felix Eggers and Kevin Fox

25694: The Relationship Dilemma: Why Do Banks Differ in the Pace at Which They Adopt New Technology?

Prachi Mishra, Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala and Raghuram Rajan

25693: How Do We Choose Our Identity? A Revealed Preference Approach Using Food Consumption

David Atkin, Eve Colson-Sihra and Moses Shayo

25692: Memory and Representativeness

Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, Frederik Schwerter and Andrei Shleifer

25691: The Causal Interpretation of Two-Stage Least Squares with Multiple Instrumental Variables

Magne Mogstad, Alexander Torgovitsky and Christopher Walters

25690: The Term Structure of Equity Risk Premia

Ravi Bansal, Shane Miller, Dongho Song and Amir Yaron

25689: The Phenomenon of Summer Diarrhea and its Waning, 1910-1930

D. Mark Anderson, Daniel Rees and Tianyi Wang

25688: A Short Note on Aggregating Productivity

David Baqaee and Emmanuel Farhi

25687: Is a Decentralized Right-to-Work Policy Feasible?

Martin Ravallion

25686: Stress Testing Networks: The Case of Central Counterparties

Richard B. Berner, Stephen Cecchetti and Kermit Schoenholtz

25685: Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief: Consumer Bankruptcy Protections in the Great Recession

Adrien Auclert, Will S. Dobbie and Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

25684: Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor

Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo

25683: Unity in Diversity? How Intergroup Contact Can Foster Nation Building

Samuel Bazzi, Arya Gaduh, Alexander Rothenberg and Maisy Wong

25682: The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand

Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo

25681: Inexpensive Heating Reduces Winter Mortality

Janjala Chirakijja, Seema Jayachandran and Pinchuan Ong

25680: Potential for Inward Foreign Direct Investment in Japan

Takeo Hoshi and Kozo Kiyota

25679: Improving Educational Pathways to Social Mobility: Evidence from Norway’s “Reform 94”

Marianne Bertrand, Magne Mogstad and Jack Mountjoy

25678: Cities, Lights, and Skills in Developing Economies

Jonathan Dingel, Antonio Miscio and Donald Davis

25677: The Role of Financial Conditions in Portfolio Choices: The Case of Insurers

Shan Ge and Michael Weisbach

25676: Toward an Understanding of the Economics of Apologies: Evidence from a Large-Scale Natural Field Experiment

Basil Halperin, Benjamin Ho, John List and Ian Muir

25675: Ensemble Methods for Causal Effects in Panel Data Settings

Susan Athey, Mohsen Bayati, Guido Imbens and Zhaonan Qu

25674: Generational Trends in Vehicle Ownership and Use: Are Millennials Any Different?

Christopher Knittel and Elizabeth Murphy

25673: The Time Variation in Risk Appetite and Uncertainty

Geert Bekaert, Eric C. Engstrom and Nancy R. Xu

25672: The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare

Mary Amiti, Stephen Redding and David Weinstein

25671: Counting Defiers

Amanda Kowalski

25670: A Model of a Randomized Experiment with an Application to the PROWESS Clinical Trial

Amanda Kowalski

25669: Mobile Money and Healthcare Use: Evidence from East Africa

Haseeb Ahmed and Benjamin Cowan

25668: Monthly Payment Targeting and the Demand for Maturity

Bronson Argyle, Taylor D. Nadauld and Christopher Palmer

25667: A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks

Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang and Tao Zha

25666: Do Pollution Markets Harm Low Income and Minority Communities? Ranking Emissions Distributions Generated by California's RECLAIM Program

Erin Mansur and Glenn Sheriff

25665: Contract Farming and Rural Transformation: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Benin

Aminou Arouna, Jeffrey Michler and Jourdain C. Lokossou

25664: Coalition Formation in Legislative Bargaining

Marco Battaglini

25663: The Impact of Early Investments in Urban School Systems in the United States

Ethan J. Schmick and Allison Shertzer