Decoding India's Low Covid-19 Case Fatality rate

Minu Philip (), Debraj Ray and S. Subramanian

No 27696, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: India’s case fatality rate (CFR) under covid-19 is strikingly low, trending from 3% or more, to a current level of around 2.2%. The world average rate is far higher, at around 4%. Several observers have noted that this difference is at least partly due to India’s younger age distribution. In this paper, we use age-specific fatality rates from 14 comparison countries, coupled with India’s distribution of covid-19 cases to “predict" what India’s CFR would be with those age-specific rates. In most cases, those predictions are lower than India’s actual performance, suggesting that India’s CFR is, if anything, too high rather than too low. We supplement the prediction exercises with the application of a decomposition technique, and we additionally account for time lags between case incidence and death, for a more relevant cross-country perspective in the growth phase of the pandemic.

JEL-codes: J10 J11 O10 O57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-08
Note: DEV EH
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Published as Minu Philip & Debraj Ray & S. Subramanian, 2021. "Decoding India's Low Covid-19 Case Fatality Rate," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 27-51, January.

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Working Paper: Decoding India’s low Covid-19 case fatality rate (2020)
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