NBER Working Papers

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11060: Measuring Social Security's Financial Problems

Jagadeesh Gokhale and Kent Smetters

11059: NAFTA's and CUSFTA's Impact on International Trade

John Romalis

11058: The Irony of Reform: Did Large Employers Subvert Workplace Safety Reform, 1869 to 1930?

Price Fishback

11057: Colonialism, Inequality, and Long-Run Paths of Development

Stanley L. Engerman and Kenneth Sokoloff

11056: A Monetary Policy Rule for Automatic Prevention of a Liquidity Trap

Bennett McCallum

11055: How Do Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interact in the European Monetary Union?

Matthew Canzoneri, Robert Cumby and Behzad Diba

11054: Interest Rate, Inflation, and Housing Price: With an Emphasis on Chonsei Price in Korea

Dongchul Cho

11053: Market Distortions when Agents are Better Informed: The Value of Information in Real Estate Transactions

Steven Levitt and Chad Syverson

11052: How Law and Institutions Shape Financial Contracts: The Case of Bank Loans

Jun Qian and Philip E. Strahan

11051: A Multi-Country Approach to Factor-Proportions Trade and Trade Costs

James Markusen and Anthony Venables

11050: Financial Markets and Wages

Claudio Michelacci and Vincenzo Quadrini

11049: The Black-White Test Score Gap Through Third Grade

Roland Fryer and Steven Levitt

11048: Does Food Aid Harm the Poor? Household Evidence from Ethiopia

James Levinsohn and Margaret McMillan

11047: Foreign Direct Investment vs. Foreiegn Portfolio Investment

Itay Goldstein and Assaf Razin

11046: Does Tariff Liberalization Increase Wage Inequality? Some Empirical Evidence

Branko Milanovic and Lyn Squire

11045: Is Poland the Next Spain?

Francesco Caselli and Silvana Tenreyro

11044: On the Optimal Progressivity of the Income Tax Code

Juan Carlos Conesa and Dirk Krueger

11043: State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does it Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?

Pete Klenow and Oleksiy Kryvtsov

11042: Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting

Martin Evans and Richard Lyons

11041: Do Currency Markets Absorb News Quickly?

Martin Evans and Richard Lyons

11040: World Trade Flows: 1962-2000

Robert Feenstra, Robert Lipsey, Haiyan Deng, Alyson C. Ma and Hengyong Mo

11039: Dynamic Inefficiencies in Insurance Markets: Evidence from long-term care insurance

Amy Finkelstein, Kathleen McGarry and Amir Sufi

11038: Insuring Against Terrorism: The Policy Challenge

Kent Smetters

11037: Bank Trading Risk and Systemic Risk

Philippe Jorion

11036: Work and the Disability Transition in 20th Century America

Sven Wilson, Joseph Burton and Benjamin Howell

11035: Drinking and Academic Performance in High School

Jeffrey DeSimone and Amy M. Wolaver

11034: Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle

David Altig, Lawrence Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum and Jesper Lindé

11033: The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline

Menzie Chinn, Michael LeBlanc and Olivier Coibion

11032: Allander Series: Skill Policies for Scotland

James Heckman and Dimitriy V. Masterov

11031: Wage Dynamics and Unobserved Heterogeneity: Time Preference of Learning Ability?

Lalith Munasinghe and Nachum Sicherman

11030: Politics and Efficiency of Separating Capital and Ordinary Government Budgets

Marco Bassetto and Thomas Sargent

11029: Optimal Taxation in an RBC Model: A Linear-Quadratic Approach

Pierpaolo Benigno and Michael Woodford

11028: Public Finance and Individual Preferences over Globalization Strategies

Gordon Hanson, Kenneth F. Scheve and Matthew Slaughter

11027: Globalization, Labor Income, and Poverty in Mexico

Gordon Hanson

11026: Consumption Risk and the Cost of Equity Capital

Ravi Jagannathan and Yong Wang

11025: Choosing Between Gifts and Bequests: How Taxes Affect the Timing of Wealth Transfers

David Joulfaian

11024: Separating Uncertainty from Heterogeneity in Life Cycle Earnings

Flavio Cunha, James Heckman and Salvador Navarro

11023: Internationalization and the Evolution of Corporate Valuation

Ross Levine and Sergio Schmukler

11022: Lobbies and Technology Diffusion

Diego Comin and Bart Hobijn

11021: Weak and Semi-Strong Form Stock Return Predictability Revisited

Wayne Ferson, Andrea Heuson and Tie Su

11020: Mimicking Portfolios with Conditioning Information

Wayne Ferson, Andrew F. Siegel and Pisun (Tracy) Xu

11019: Place of Work and Place of Residence: Informal Hiring Networks and Labor Market Outcomes

Patrick Bayer, Stephen Ross and Giorgio Topa

11018: Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis

Randolph B. Cohen, Christopher Polk and Tuomo Vuolteenaho

11017: Information Dynamics and Equilibrium Multiplicity in Global Games of Regime Change

George-Marios Angeletos, Christian Hellwig and Alessandro Pavan

11016: Incomplete Market Dynamics in a Neoclassical Production Economy

George-Marios Angeletos and Laurent Calvet

11015: Crises and Prices: Information Aggregation, Multiplicity and Volatility

George-Marios Angeletos and Iván Werning

11014: A Protectionist Bias in Majoritarian Politics

Gene Grossman and Elhanan Helpman

11013: Forging a New Identity: The Costs and Benefits of Diversity in Civil War Combat Units for Black Slaves and Freemen

Dora Costa and Matthew Kahn

11012: The Macroeconomics of Subsistence Points

Morten Ravn, Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe and Martín Uribe

11011: PIPE Dreams? The Performance of Companies Issuing Equity Privately

David J. Brophy, Paige P. Ouimet and Clemens Sialm

11010: Labor Income Dynamics at Business-Cycle Frequencies: Implications for Portfolio Choice

Anthony W. Lynch and Sinan Tan

11009: Externalities and Growth

Pete Klenow and Andres Rodriguez-Clare

11008: Latin America in the Rearview Mirror

Harold Cole, Lee Ohanian, Alvaro Riascos and James Schmitz

11007: Macroeconomic Conditions, Health and Mortality

Christopher Ruhm

11006: Bank Mergers and Crime: The Real and Social Effects of Credit Market Competition

Mark J. Garmaise and Tobias J. Moskowitz

11005: Cultural Biases in Economic Exchange

Luigi Guiso, Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales

11004: Do Liquidation Values Affect Financial Contracts? Evidence from Commercial Loan Contracts and Zoning Regulation

Efraim Benmelech, Mark J. Garmaise and Tobias Moskowitz

11003: An Assignment Theory of Foreign Direct Investment

Volker Nocke and Stephen Yeaple

11002: Executive Financial Incentives and Payout Policy: Firm Responses to the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut

Jeffrey Brown, Nellie Liang and Scott Weisbenner

11001: Do Markets Reduce Costs? Assessing the Impact of Regulatory Restructuring on U.S. Electric Generation Efficiency

Kira Markiewicz, Nancy Rose and Catherine Wolfram

11000: Dynamic Scoring: A Back-of-the-Envelope Guide

N. Gregory Mankiw and Matthew Weinzierl

10999: Growth vs. Margins: Destabilizing Consequences of Giving the Stock Market What it Wants

Philippe Aghion and Jeremy Stein

10998: Corporate Financing Decisions When Investors Take the Path of Least Resistance

Malcolm Baker, Joshua Coval and Jeremy Stein

10997: Vertical Integration and Technology: Theory and Evidence

Daron Acemoglu, Philippe Aghion, Rachel Griffith and Fabrizio Zilibotti

10996: Parametric Portfolio Policies: Exploiting Characteristics in the Cross Section of Equity Returns

Michael W. Brandt, Pedro Santa-Clara and Rossen Valkanov

10995: Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark-Dollar Real Exchange Rate

Charles Engel and Kenneth West

10994: Explaining the Magnitude of Liquidity Premia: The Roles of Return Predictability, Wealth Shocks and State-Dependent Transaction Costs

Anthony W. Lynch and Sinan Tan

10993: Fluctuations in a Dreadful Childhood: Synthetic Longitudinal Height Data, Relative Prices and Weather in the Short-Term Health of American Slaves

Richard Steckel

10992: China's New Regional Trade Agreements

Agata Antkiewicz and John Whalley

10991: The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations

Alwyn Young

10990: Global Growth Opportunities and Market Integration

Geert Bekaert, Campbell Harvey, Christian Lundblad and Stephan Siegel

10989: The Interaction of Public and Private Insurance: Medicaid and the Long-Term Care Insurance Market

Jeffrey Brown and Amy Finkelstein

10988: Happy News from the Dismal Science: Reassessing the Japanese Fiscal Policy and Sustainability

Christian Broda and David Weinstein

10987: Enforcement, Private Political Pressure and the GATT/WTO Escape Clause

Kyle Bagwell and Robert Staiger

10986: Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate

Ariel Burstein, Martin Eichenbaum and Sergio Rebelo

10985: Globalization and the Returns to Speaking English in South Africa

James Levinsohn

10984: The Determinants of Progressive Era Reform: The Pure Food and Drugs Act of 1906

Marc Law and Gary Libecap

10983: Finance, Firm Size, and Growth

Thorsten Beck, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Luc Laeven and Ross Levine

10982: How do Banks Manage Liquidity Risk? Evidence from Equity and Deposit Markets in the Fall of 1998

Philip E. Strahan, Evan Gatev and Til Schuermann

10981: Some New Variance Bounds for Asset Prices

Charles Engel

10980: Why Should We Care About Child Labor? The Education, Labor Market, and Health Consequences of Child Labor

Kathleen Beegle, Rajeev Dehejia and Roberta Gatti

10979: Finance, Inequality, and Poverty: Cross-Country Evidence

Thorsten Beck, Asli Demirguc-Kunt and Ross Levine

10978: Theft and Taxes

Mihir A. Desai, Isaac Dyck and Luigi Zingales

10977: Tax Policy for Health Insurance

Jonathan Gruber

10976: The Economic Theory of Illegal Goods: The Case of Drugs

Gary Becker, Kevin Murphy and Michael Grossman

10975: Semiparametric Causality Tests Using the Policy Propensity Score

Joshua Angrist and Guido Kuersteiner

10974: Tobacco Spending and its Crowd-Out of Other Goods

Susan H. Busch, Mireia Jofre-Bonet, Tracy Falba and Jody L. Sindelar

10973: Has Monetary Policy Become More Efficient? A Cross Country Analysis

Stephen Cecchetti, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes and Stefan Krause Montalbert

10972: Manufacturer Liability for Harms Caused by Consumers to Others

Bruce Hay and Kathryn E. Spier

10971: Incentives to Learn

Michael Kremer, Edward Miguel and Rebecca Thornton

10970: Consumption Commitments and Habit Formation

Raj Chetty and Adam Szeidl

10969: Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090

Antoine Bommier, Ronald Lee, Timothy Miller and Stéphane Zuber

10968: The Integration of Child Tax Credits and Welfare: Evidence from the National Child Benefit Program

Kevin Milligan and Mark Stabile

10967: Aging and the Welfare State: The Role of Young and Old Voting Pivots

Assaf Razin and Efraim Sadka

10966: Institutions and Technological Innovation During the Early Economic Growth: Evidence from the Great Inventors of the United States, 1790-1930

B. Zorina Khan and Kenneth Sokoloff

10965: Digging the Dirt at Public Expense: Governance in the Building of the Erie Canal and Other Public Works

Stanley Engerman and Kenneth Sokoloff

10964: Prescription Drugs, Medical Care, and Health Outcomes: A Model of Elderly Health Dynamics

Zhou Yang, Donna Gilleskie and Edward Norton

10963: Bounds in Competing Risks Models and the War on Cancer

Bo E. Honore and Adriana Lleras-Muney

10962: Incompatibility, Product Attributes and Consumer Welfare: Evidence from ATMs

Christopher Knittel and Victor Stango

10961: Covered Interest Arbitrage: Then vs. Now

Ted Juhl, William Miles and Marc Weidenmier