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Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Takatoshi Ito () and Kiyotaka Sato

No 12395, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Macroeconomic consequences of a large currency depreciation among the crisis-hit Asian economies had varied from one country to another. Inflation did not soar in most Asian countries, including Thailand and Korea, after the exchange rate depreciated during the crisis. Indonesia, however, suffered very high inflation following a very large nominal depreciation of the rupiah. As a result, price competitive advantage by the rupiah depreciation was lost in the real exchange rate terms. The objective of this paper is to examine the pass-through effects of exchange rate changes on the domestic prices in the East Asian economies using a VAR analysis. Main results are as follows: (1) the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices was quite high in the crisis-hit economies; (2) the pass-through to CPI was generally low, with a notable exception of Indonesia: and (3) in Indonesia, both the impulse response of monetary policy variables to exchange rate shocks and that of CPI to monetary policy shocks are positive, large, and statistically significant. Thus, Indonesia%u2019s accommodative monetary policy, coupled with the high degree of the CPI responsiveness to exchange rate changes was an important factor in the spiraling effects of domestic price inflation and sharp nominal exchange rate depreciation in the post-crisis period.

JEL-codes: F12 F31 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-fmk, nep-ifn, nep-mon and nep-sea
Note: EFG IFM
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Published as Ito, Takaytoshi and Kiyotaka Sato. "Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: Vector Autoregression Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 40, 7 (October 2008): 1407–1438.

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Working Paper: Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through (2006) Downloads
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