NBER Working Papers

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22662: Surplus-Debt Regressions

Eric Leeper and Bing Li

22661: Hope as Aspirations, Agency, and Pathways: Poverty Dynamics and Microfinance in Oaxaca, Mexico

Travis Lybbert and Bruce Wydick

22660: Pay Now or Pay Later?: The Economics within the Private Equity Partnership

Victoria Ivashina and Josh Lerner

22659: To the New World and Back Again: Return Migrants in the Age of Mass Migration

Ran Abramitzky, Leah Boustan and Katherine Eriksson

22658: Zoning and the Economic Geography of Cities

Allison Shertzer, Tate Twinam and Randall Walsh

22657: Coping with Change: International Differences in the Returns to Skills

Eric Hanushek, Guido Schwerdt, Simon Wiederhold and Ludger Woessmann

22656: The Labor Market Consequences of Refugee Supply Shocks

George Borjas and Joan Monras

22655: Quantitative Spatial Economics

Stephen Redding and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

22654: Underemployment in the Early Careers of College Graduates Following the Great Recession

Jaison Abel and Richard Deitz

22653: Long-Range Growth: Economic Development in the Global Network of Air Links

Filipe Campante and David Yanagizawa-Drott

22652: Two Centuries of Finance and Growth in the United States, 1790-1980

Howard Bodenhorn

22651: Capital Share Dynamics When Firms Insure Workers

Barney Hartman-Glaser, Hanno Lustig and Mindy Xiaolan

22650: Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from China

Kaiji Chen, Patrick Higgins, Daniel Waggoner and Tao Zha

22649: Product Switching and the Business Cycle

Andrew Bernard and Toshihiro Okubo

22648: Incarceration, Recidivism and Employment

Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon Dahl, Katrine Løken and Magne Mogstad

22647: Better, Faster, Stronger: Global Innovation and Trade Liberalization

Federica Coelli, Andreas Moxnes and Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe

22646: Nonlinear Tax Incidence and Optimal Taxation in General Equilibrium

Dominik Sachs, Aleh Tsyvinski and Nicolas Werquin

22645: International Banking and Cross-border Effects of Regulation: Lessons from the United States

Jose Berrospide, Ricardo Correa, Linda Goldberg and Friederike Niepmann

22644: Preferences for Equality in Environmental Outcomes

Maureen Cropper, Alan Krupnick and William Raich

22643: Credible Ecological Inference for Personalized Medicine: Formalizing Clinical Judgment

Charles Manski

22642: Deriving Risk Adjustment Payment Weights to Maximize Efficiency of Health Insurance Markets

Timothy Layton, Thomas G. McGuire and Richard C. van Kleef

22641: Title IX and the Spatial Content of Female Employment—Out of the Lab and into the Labor Market

Michael Baker and Kirsten Cornelson

22640: The Role of Information and Cash Transfers on Early Childhood Development: Evidence from Nepal

Michael Levere, Gayatri Acharya and Prashant Bharadwaj

22639: Monetary Policy for a Bubbly World

Vladimir Asriyan, Luca Fornaro, Alberto Martin and Jaume Ventura

22638: How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel

Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Christopher Palmer

22637: Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure

David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon Hanson and Kaveh Majlesi

22636: Trade and the Environment: New Methods, Measurements, and Results

Jevan Cherniwchan, Brian Copeland and M. Scott Taylor

22635: Do Grandparents and Great-Grandparents Matter? Multigenerational Mobility in the US, 1910-2013

Joseph Ferrie, Catherine Massey and Jonathan Rothbaum

22634: Incentive Fees and Competition in Pension Funds: Evidence from a Regulatory Experiment

Assaf Hamdani, Eugene Kandel, Yevgeny Mugerman and Yishay Yafeh

22633: Research and Impacts of Digital Financial Services

Dean Karlan, Jake Kendall, Rebecca Mann, Rohini Pande, Tavneet Suri and Jonathan Zinman

22632: Efficiency-Morality Trade-Offs in Repugnant Transactions: A Choice Experiment

Julio Elias, Nicola Lacetera and Mario Macis

22631: Technological Leadership (de)Concentration: Causes in ICTE

Yasin Ozcan and Shane Greenstein

22630: Student Coaching: How Far Can Technology Go?

Philip Oreopoulos and Uros Petronijevic

22629: Thrivers and Divers: Using Non-Academic Measures to Predict College Success and Failure

Graham Beattie, Jean-William Laliberté and Philip Oreopoulos

22628: Heterogeneous Impact Dynamics of a Rural Business Development Program in Nicaragua

Michael Carter, Emilia Tjernström and Patricia Toledo

22627: Using Big Data to Estimate Consumer Surplus: The Case of Uber

Peter Cohen, Robert Hahn, Jonathan Hall, Steven Levitt and Robert Metcalfe

22626: Heterogeneous Wealth Dynamics: On the Roles of Risk and Ability

Paulo Santos and Christopher Barrett

22625: The Importance of Unemployment Insurance as an Automatic Stabilizer

Marco Di Maggio and Amir Kermani

22624: Agro-Ecosystem Productivity and the Dynamic Response to Shocks

Jean-Paul Chavas

22623: High-Skilled Immigration and the Rise of STEM Occupations in U.S. Employment

Gordon Hanson and Matthew J. Slaughter

22622: Is The Mediterranean The New Rio Grande? US And EU Immigration Pressures In The Long Run

Gordon Hanson and Craig McIntosh

22621: A Framework for Eliciting, Incorporating, and Disciplining Identification Beliefs in Linear Models

Francis DiTraglia and Camilo García-Jimeno

22620: Financial Risk Protection from Social Health Insurance

Kayleigh Barnes, Arnab Mukherji, Patrick Mullen and Neeraj Sood

22619: Mobile Collateral versus Immobile Collateral

Gary Gorton and Tyler Muir

22618: Real Interest Rates, Imbalances and the Curse of Regional Safe Asset Providers at the Zero Lower Bound

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Helene Rey

22617: The Perils of High-Powered Incentives: Evidence from Colombia's False Positives

Daron Acemoglu, Leopoldo Fergusson, James Robinson, Dario Romero and Juan Vargas

22616: Designing Online Marketplaces: Trust and Reputation Mechanisms

Michael Luca

22615: Real-Time Forecast Evaluation of DSGE Models with Stochastic Volatility

Francis Diebold, Frank Schorfheide and Minchul Shin

22614: Debt Constraints and Employment

Patrick Kehoe, Elena Pastorino and Virgiliu Midrigan

22613: Nominal Rigidities in Debt and Product Markets

Carlos Garriga, Finn Kydland and Roman Šustek

22612: Firms’ Management of Infrequent Shocks

Benjamin Collier, Andrew Haughwout, Howard C. Kunreuther, Erwann Michel-Kerjan and Michael A. Stewart

22611: Emotional Judges and Unlucky Juveniles

Ozkan Eren and Naci Mocan

22610: Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime

Samuel R. Bondurant, Jason Lindo and Isaac D. Swensen

22609: The Welfare Cost of Retirement Uncertainty

Frank Caliendo, Maria Casanova, Aspen Gorry and Sita Slavov

22608: Informal Labor and the Efficiency Cost of Social Programs: Evidence from the Brazilian Unemployment Insurance Program

Francois Gerard and Gustavo Gonzaga

22607: Women Working Longer: Facts and Some Explanations

Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz

22606: Older Women’s Labor Market Attachment, Retirement Planning, and Household Debt

Annamaria Lusardi and Olivia Mitchell

22605: Can Myopic Loss Aversion Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle? Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment with Professional Traders

Francis Larson, John List and Robert Metcalfe

22604: How You Pay Affects How You Do: Financial Aid Type and Student Performance in College

Peter Cappelli and Shinjae Won

22603: Labour Market Regulations and Capital Intensity

Gilbert Cette, Jimmy Lopez and Jacques Mairesse

22602: Certified Random: A New Order for Co-Authorship

Debraj Ray and Arthur Robson

22601: Migration as a Test of the Happiness Set Point Hypothesis: Evidence from Immigration to Canada

John Helliwell, Aneta Bonikowska and Hugh Shiplett

22600: Hospital Network Competition and Adverse Selection: Evidence from the Massachusetts Health Insurance Exchange

Mark Shepard

22599: Optimal Monetary Policy in a Collateralized Economy

Gary Gorton and Ping He

22598: Strategic Patient Discharge: The Case of Long-Term Care Hospitals

Paul Eliason, Paul L. E. Grieco, Ryan McDevitt and James W. Roberts

22597: Executive Lawyers: Gatekeepers or Strategic Officers?

Adair Morse, Wei Wang and Serena Wu

22596: Seeding the S-Curve? The Role of Early Adopters in Diffusion

Christian Catalini and Catherine Tucker

22595: Understanding and Misunderstanding Randomized Controlled Trials

Angus Deaton and Nancy Cartwright

22594: Financial Safety Nets

Julien Bengui, Javier Bianchi and Louphou Coulibaly

22593: Misreporting Trade: Tariff Evasion, Corruption, and Auditing Standards

Derek Kellenberg and Arik Levinson

22592: Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy

Wenxin Du, Carolin Pflueger and Jesse Schreger

22591: Migration Responses to Conflict: Evidence from the Border of the American Civil War

Shari Eli, Laura Salisbury and Allison Shertzer

22590: The U.S. Economy in WWII as a Model for Coping with Climate Change

Hugh Rockoff

22589: The Efficiency of Race-Neutral Alternatives to Race-Based Affirmative Action: Evidence from Chicago's Exam Schools

Glenn Ellison and Parag Pathak

22588: Voter Response to Peak and End Transfers: Evidence from a Conditional Cash Transfer Experiment

Sebastian Galiani, Nadya Hajj, Patrick McEwan, Pablo Ibarraran and Nandita Krishnaswamy

22587: How Do Venture Capitalists Make Decisions?

Paul Gompers, William Gornall, Steven Kaplan and Ilya Strebulaev

22586: Love, Money, and Parental Goods: Does Parental Matchmaking Matter?

Fali Huang, Ginger Zhe Jin and Lixin Xu

22585: Social Experiments in the Labor Market

Jesse Rothstein and Till von Wachter

22584: Buying Reputation as a Signal of Quality: Evidence from an Online Marketplace

Lingfang Li, Steven Tadelis and Xiaolan Zhou

22583: Estimating the Value of Public Insurance Using Complementary Private Insurance

Marika Cabral and Mark R. Cullen

22582: Direct-to-Consumer Advertising and Online Search

Matthew Chesnes and Ginger Zhe Jin

22581: A Lesson from the Great Depression that the Fed Might have Learned: A Comparison of the 1932 Open Market Purchases with Quantitative Easing

Michael Bordo and Arunima Sinha

22580: The Lifecycle of the 47%

Don Fullerton and Nirupama Rao

22579: The Derivation of Discount Rates with an Augmented Measure of Income

Nicholas Muller

22578: Do Minimum Wage Increases Influence Worker Health?

Brady Horn, Johanna Maclean and Michael Strain

22577: Relative Tax Rates, Proximity and Cigarette Tax Noncompliance: Evidence from a National Sample of Littered Cigarette Packs

Shu Wang, David Merriman and Frank Chaloupka

22576: The Complexity of Liquidity: The Extraordinary Case of Sovereign Bonds

Jacob Boudoukh, Jordan Brooks, Matthew Richardson and Zhikai Xu

22575: Identifying and Estimating Neighborhood Effects

Bryan Graham

22574: Financial Aid, Debt Management, and Socioeconomic Outcomes: Post-College Effects of Merit-Based Aid

Judith Scott-Clayton and Basit Zafar

22573: From Science to Technology: The Value of Knowledge From Different Energy Research Institutions

David Popp

22572: Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation

Francesco Bianchi, Martin Lettau and Sydney Ludvigson

22571: A Time to Make Laws and a Time to Fundraise? On the Relation between Salaries and Time Use for State Politicians

Mitchell Hoffman and Elizabeth Lyons

22570: The Political Economy of Debt and Entitlements

Laurent Bouton, Alessandro Lizzeri and Nicola Persico

22569: Imputation in U.S. Manufacturing Data and Its Implications for Productivity Dispersion

T. Kirk White, Jerome P. Reiter and Amil Petrin

22568: Legal Access to Alcohol and Criminality

Benjamin Hansen and Glen Waddell

22567: Israel and the 1990-2015 Global Developments: Riding with the Global Flows and Weathering the Storms

Assaf Razin and Steven Rosefielde

22566: Predicting Experimental Results: Who Knows What?

Stefano DellaVigna and Devin Pope

22565: Exclusion Bias in the Estimation of Peer Effects

Bet Caeyers and Marcel Fafchamps

22564: The Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefits: New Evidence and Interpretation

Johannes Schmieder and Till von Wachter

22563: The Effect of Unconventional Fiscal Policy on Consumption Expenditure

Francesco D’Acunto, Daniel Hoang and Michael Weber