NBER Working Papers

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21710: Central bank Credibility Before and After the Crisis

Michael Bordo and Pierre Siklos

21709: Discretion in Hiring

Mitchell Hoffman, Lisa Kahn and Danielle Li

21708: Work Incentives in the Social Security Disability Benefit Formula

Gopi Goda, John B. Shoven and Sita Slavov

21707: Business Groups in Canada: Their Rise and Fall, and Rise and Fall Again

Randall Morck and Gloria Y. Tian

21706: Commuting, Migration and Local Employment Elasticities

Ferdinando Monte, Stephen Redding and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

21705: Research Design Meets Market Design: Using Centralized Assignment for Impact Evaluation

Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Joshua Angrist, Yusuke Narita and Parag Pathak

21704: Mobile Messaging for Offline Group Formation in Prosocial Activities: A Large Field Experiment

Tianshu Sun, Guodong (Gordon) Gao and Ginger Zhe Jin

21703: Why did the Democrats Lose the South? Bringing New Data to an Old Debate

Ilyana Kuziemko and Ebonya Washington

21702: Training and Search On the Job

Rasmus Lentz and Nicolas Roys

21701: How Do Right-To-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping With Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions

Charles Manski and John Pepper

21700: Momentum in Imperial Russia

William Goetzmann and Simon Huang

21699: Immigration, Human Capital Formation and Endogenous Economic Growth

Isaac Ehrlich and Jinyoung Kim

21698: Which Alpha?

Francisco Barillas and Jay Shanken

21697: Caloric Requirements and Food Consumption Patterns of the Poor

Shari Eli and Nicholas Li

21696: Size Discovery

Darrell Duffie and Haoxiang Zhu

21695: Overconfidence And Preferences For Competition

Ernesto Reuben, Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales

21694: The U.S. Debt Restructuring of 1933: Consequences and Lessons

Sebastian Edwards, Francis Longstaff and Alvaro Garcia-Marin

21693: Bubble Investing: Learning from History

William Goetzmann

21692: Unequal Bequests

Marco Francesconi, Robert Pollak and Domenico Tabasso

21691: Contracting and the Division of the Gains from Trade

Andrew Bernard and Swati Dhingra

21690: Enlarging the Contracting Space: Collateral Menus, Access to Credit, and Economic Activity

Murillo Campello and Mauricio Larrain

21689: Factors Determining Callbacks to Job Applications by the Unemployed: An Audit Study

Henry S. Farber, Dan Silverman and Till von Wachter

21688: Greek Budget Realities: No Easy Options

Christopher House and Linda Tesar

21687: Where Does Voucher Funding Go? How Large-Scale Subsidy Programs Affect Private-School Revenue, Enrollment, and Prices

Daniel Hungerman and Kevin Rinz

21686: The Choice Channel of Financial Innovation

Felipe Iachan, Plamen T. Nenov and Alp Simsek

21685: Asymmetry of Information within Family Networks

Joachim De Weerdt, Garance Genicot and Alice Mesnard

21684: Liquidity Risk, Bank Networks, and the Value of Joining the Federal Reserve System

Charles Calomiris, Matthew Jaremski, Haelim Park and Gary Richardson

21683: Rosca Meets Formal Credit Market

Hanming Fang, Rongzhu Ke and Li-An Zhou

21682: What Determines End-of-Life Assets? A Retrospective View

James Poterba, Steven Venti and David Wise

21681: Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks, Climate Change, and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates

Alan Barreca, Olivier Deschenes and Melanie Guldi

21680: Fiscal Stimulus in Economic Unions: What Role for States?

Gerald Carlino and Robert P. Inman

21679: Pricing with Limited Knowledge of Demand

Maxime C. Cohen, Georgia Perakis and Robert Pindyck

21678: Patent Assertions: Are We Any Closer to Aligning Reward to Contribution?

Fiona Scott Morton and Carl Shapiro

21677: Comparative Advantage, International Trade, and Fertility

Quy-Toan Do, Andrei Levchenko and Claudio Raddatz

21676: Using Linked Survey and Administrative Data to Better Measure Income: Implications for Poverty, Program Effectiveness and Holes in the Safety Net

Bruce Meyer and Nikolas Mittag

21675: Do Employers Prefer Migrant Workers? Evidence from a Chinese Job Board

Peter Kuhn and Kailing Shen

21674: The Welfare Gains from Macro-Insurance Against Natural Disasters

Eduardo Borensztein, Eduardo Cavallo and Olivier Jeanne

21673: Windfall Gains and Stock Market Participation

Joseph Briggs, David Cesarini, Erik Lindqvist and Robert Östling

21672: Economic Cycles in Ancient China

Yaguang Zhang, Guo Fan and John Whalley

21671: The Welfare Effects of Nudges: A Case Study of Energy Use Social Comparisons

Hunt Allcott and Judd B. Kessler

21670: Global Imbalances and Policy Wars at the Zero Lower Bound

Ricardo Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

21669: Is It Harder for Older Workers to Find Jobs? New and Improved Evidence from a Field Experiment

David Neumark, Ian Burn and Patrick Button

21668: Income Inequality and Asset Prices under Redistributive Taxation

Lubos Pastor and Pietro Veronesi

21667: House Prices and Consumer Spending

David Berger, Veronica Guerrieri, Guido Lorenzoni and Joseph Vavra

21666: How Do Patents Affect Follow-On Innovation? Evidence from the Human Genome

Bhaven Sampat and Heidi Williams

21665: Do Employer Pension Contributions Reflect Employee Preferences? Evidence from a Retirement Savings Reform in Denmark

Itzik Fadlon, Jessica A. Laird and Torben Nielsen

21664: The Pitfalls of External Dependence: Greece, 1829-2015

Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

21663: Local Instruments, Global Extrapolation: External Validity of the Labor Supply-Fertility Local Average Treatment Effect

James Bisbee, Rajeev Dehejia, Cristian Pop-Eleches and Cyrus Samii

21662: Exchange Market Pressure in OECD and Emerging Economies: Domestic vs. External Factors and Capital Flows in the Old and New Normal

Joshua Aizenman and Mahir Binici

21661: The Coming Wave: Where Do Emerging Market Investors Put Their Money?

G. Karolyi, David Ng and Eswar Prasad

21660: Political Economy of Debt and Growth

Marco Battaglini and Levon Barseghyan

21659: Employment and Training Programs

Burt S. Barnow and Jeffrey Smith

21658: Evaluating Public Programs with Close Substitutes: The Case of Head Start

Patrick Kline and Christopher Walters

21657: Measuring Changes in the Bilateral Technology Gaps between China, India and the U.S. 1979 - 2008

Keting Shen, Jing Wang and John Whalley

21656: Do Students Know Best? Choice, Classroom Time, and Academic Performance

Ted Joyce, Sean Crockett, David Jaeger, Onur Altindag, Stephen O'Connell and Dahlia K. Remler

21655: The Analysis of Field Choice in College and Graduate School: Determinants and Wage Effects

Joseph Altonji, Peter Arcidiacono and Arnaud Maurel

21654: Effects of Payment Reform in More versus Less Competitive Markets

Neeraj Sood, Abby Alpert, Kayleigh Barnes, Peter Huckfeldt and Jose Escarce

21653: Streaming Reaches Flood Stage: Does Spotify Stimulate or Depress Music Sales?

Luis Aguiar and Joel Waldfogel

21652: The Effect of Public Funding on Research Output: the New Zealand Marsden Fund

Jason Gush, Adam Jaffe, Victoria Larsen and Athene Laws

21651: Business in the United States: Who Owns it and How Much Tax Do They Pay?

Michael Cooper, John McClelland, James Pearce, Richard Prisinzano, Joseph Sullivan, Danny Yagan, Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick

21650: The Efficiency Consequences of Health Care Privatization: Evidence from Medicare Advantage Exits

Mark Duggan, Jonathan Gruber and Boris Vabson

21649: Self-Selection of Emigrants: Theory and Evidence on Stochastic Dominance in Observable and Unobservable Characteristics

George Borjas, Ilpo Kauppinen and Panu Poutvaara

21648: Private Safety-Net Clinics: Effects of Financial Pressures and Community Characteristics on Closures

Suhui Li, Avi Dor, Jesse M. Pines, Mark S. Zocchi and Renee Y. Hsia

21647: Pollution and Mortality in the 19th Century

W Hanlon

21646: The International Price System

Gita Gopinath

21645: Trading Votes for Votes. A Decentralized Matching Algorithm

Alessandra Casella and Thomas Palfrey

21644: Wealth, Tastes, and Entrepreneurial Choice

Erik Hurst and Benjamin Pugsley

21643: When Evidence is Not Enough: Findings from a Randomized Evaluation of Evidence-Based Literacy Instruction (EBLI)

Brian Jacob

21642: The Anatomy of Physician Payments: Contracting Subject to Complexity

Jeffrey Clemens, Joshua Gottlieb and Timea Laura Molnar

21641: Partial Identification in Applied Research: Benefits and Challenges

Kate Ho and Adam Rosen

21640: Retaking in High Stakes Exams: Is Less More?

Kala Krishna, Sergey Lychagin and Veronica Frisancho

21639: The Promise and Potential of Linked Employer-Employee Data for Entrepreneurship Research

Christopher Goetz, Henry Hyatt, Erika McEntarfer and Kristin Sandusky

21638: How Does Declining Unionism Affect the American Middle Class and Intergenerational Mobility?

Richard Freeman, Eunice Han, David Madland and Brendan V. Duke

21637: Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

Kenneth Gillingham, William Nordhaus, David Anthoff, Geoffrey Blanford, Valentina Bosetti, Peter Christensen, Haewon McJeon, John Reilly and Paul Sztorc

21636: Economics and the Modern Economic Historian

Ran Abramitzky

21635: Pollution, Infectious Disease, and Mortality: Evidence from the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic

Karen Clay, Joshua Lewis and Edson Severnini

21634: Insider Trading and Innovation

Ross Levine, Chen Lin and Lai Wei

21633: Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty

Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis

21632: What Does a Deductible Do? The Impact of Cost-Sharing on Health Care Prices, Quantities, and Spending Dynamics

Zarek Brot-Goldberg, Amitabh Chandra, Benjamin R. Handel and Jonathan Kolstad

21631: Bullying among Adolescents: The Role of Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills

Miguel Sarzosa and Sergio Urzua

21630: Can't Pay or Won't Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default

Kristopher Gerardi, Kyle Herkenhoff, Lee Ohanian and Paul Willen

21629: Measuring Health Insurance Benefits: The Case of People with Disabilities

Richard Burkhauser, Jeff Larrimore and Sean Lyons

21628: Catching Cheating Students

Steven Levitt and Ming-Jen Lin

21627: Natural Gas Prices and Coal Displacement: Evidence from Electricity Markets

Christopher Knittel, Konstantinos Metaxoglou and Andre Trindade

21626: Phasing Out the GSEs

Vadim Elenev, Tim Landvoigt and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

21625: The Mortality Consequences of Distinctively Black Names

Lisa Cook, Trevon Logan and John Parman

21624: Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution

James Feyrer, Erin Mansur and Bruce Sacerdote

21623: Policies for a Better-fed World

Abhijit Banerjee

21622: The Migration Response to Increasing Temperatures

Cristina Cattaneo and Giovanni Peri

21621: Optimal Product Variety in Radio Markets

Steven Berry, Alon Eizenberg and Joel Waldfogel

21620: Do People Shape Cities, or Do Cities Shape People? The Co-evolution of Physical, Social, and Economic Change in Five Major U.S. Cities

Nikhil Naik, Scott Kominers, Ramesh Raskar, Edward Glaeser and Cesar Hidalgo

21619: Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

Olivier Blanchard, Jonathan Ostry, Atish Ghosh and Marcos Chamon

21618: Locate Your Nearest Exit: Mass Layoffs and Local Labor Market Response

Andrew Foote, Michel Grosz and Ann Stevens

21617: The Robustness of Tests for Consumer Choice Inconsistencies

Jason Abaluck and Jonathan Gruber

21616: Movies, Margins and Marketing: Encouraging the Adoption of Iron-Fortified Salt

Abhijit Banerjee, Sharon Barnhardt and Esther Duflo

21615: Oil and Gas Revenue Allocation to Local Governments in Eight States

Richard Newell and Daniel Raimi

21614: Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis

Mariana García-Schmidt and Michael Woodford

21613: Chinese Yellow Dust and Korean Infant Health

Deokrye Baek, Duha Altindag and Naci Mocan

21612: Discrimination and Worker Evaluation

Costas Cavounidis and Kevin Lang

21611: Moral Incentives in Credit Card Debt Repayment: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Leonardo Bursztyn, Stefano Fiorin, Daniel Gottlieb and Martin Kanz