NBER Working Papers

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31262: Children's Indirect Exposure to the U.S. Justice System: Evidence from Longitudinal Links between Survey and Administrative Data

Keith Finlay, Michael G. Mueller-Smith and Brittany Street

31261: Trends in Special Education Identification During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Michigan

Bryant G. Hopkins, Katharine O. Strunk, Scott Imberman, Adrea J. Truckenmiller, Matthew Guzman and Marisa H. Fisher

31260: Climate Policy and the Economy: Evidence from Europe's Carbon Pricing Initiatives

Diego Känzig and Maximilian Konradt

31259: Whatever it Takes? The Impact of Conditional Policy Promises

Valentin Haddad, Alan Moreira and Tyler Muir

31258: The Economic Approach to Personality, Character and Virtue

James Heckman, Bridget Galaty and Haihan Tian

31257: How Informal Mentoring by Teachers, Counselors, and Coaches Supports Students’ Long-Run Academic Success

Matthew Kraft, Alexander J. Bolves and Noelle M. Hurd

31256: Inducing Participation and Performance Using Financial Incentives: Evidence from Medicare

Atul Gupta, Joseph R. Martinez and Amol S. Navathe

31255: Stress Relief?: Funding Structures and Resilience to the Covid Shock

Kristin Forbes, Christian Friedrich and Dennis Reinhardt

31254: Policy Packages and Policy Space: Lessons from COVID-19

Katharina Bergant and Kristin Forbes

31253: Two-Sided Market Power in Firm-to-Firm Trade

Vanessa Alviarez, Michele Fioretti, Ken Kikkawa and Monica Morlacco

31252: Crisis Risk and Risk Management

René M. Stulz

31251: Intergovernmental Grants and Policy Competition: Concepts, Institutions, and Evidence

Jeffrey Clemens and Stan Veuger

31250: Data Privacy and Algorithmic Inequality

Zhuang Liu, Michael Sockin and Wei Xiong

31249: Income Gains and the Geography of the US Home Ownership Boom, 1940 to 1960

William Collins and Gregory Niemesh

31248: ESG Spillovers

Shangchen Li, Hongxun Ruan, Sheridan Titman and Haotian Xiang

31247: Debt Moratoria: Evidence from Student Loan Forbearance

Michael Dinerstein, Constantine Yannelis and Ching-Tse Chen

31246: Central Bank Credibility and Fiscal Responsibility

Jesse Schreger, Pierre Yared and Emilio Zaratiegui

31245: Risk Sharing, Commitment Constraints and Self Help Groups

Orazio Attanasio, Anjini Kochar, Aprajit Mahajan and Vaishnavi Surendra

31244: Firm Commitments

Patrick Bolton and Marcin Kacperczyk

31243: A Model of Influencer Economy

Lin Cong and Siguang Li

31242: The Re-Emerging Suicide Crisis in the U.S.: Patterns, Causes and Solutions

Dave Marcotte and Benjamin Hansen

31241: The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered

Hie Joo Ahn, Bart Hobijn and Aysegul Sahin

31240: Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?

Laura Alfaro, Maggie Chen and Davin Chor

31239: Administrative Burden and Procedural Denials: Experimental Evidence from SNAP

Eric Giannella, Tatiana Homonoff, Gwen Rino and Jason Somerville

31238: The Empire Project: Trade Policy in Interwar Canada

Markus Lampe, Kevin O'Rourke, Lorenz Reiter and Yoto Yotov

31237: Hukou and Guanxi: How Social Discrimination and Networks Impact Intrahousehold Allocations in China

Liqun Zhuge and Kevin Lang

31236: Accounting for the Widening Mortality Gap Between Adult Americans with and without a BA

Anne Case and Angus Deaton

31235: Cross-border Spillovers: How US Financial Conditions affect M&As Around the World

Katharina Bergant, Prachi Mishra and Raghuram Rajan

31234: Immigration, Household Production, and Native Women's Labor Market Outcomes: A Survey of a Global Phenomenon

Patricia Cortes

31233: The Aggregate Importance of Intermediate Input Substitutability

Alessandra Peter and Cian Ruane

31232: Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations

Carola Binder, Pei Kuang and Li Tang

31231: Consumer Surplus from Suppliers: How Big is it and Does it Matter for Growth?

David Baqaee, Ariel Burstein, Cédric Duprez and Emmanuel Farhi

31230: Scalable Demand and Markups

Enghin Atalay, Erika Frost, Alan T. Sorensen, Christopher J. Sullivan and Wanjia Zhu

31229: Product Repositioning by Merging Firms

Enghin Atalay, Alan T. Sorensen, Christopher J. Sullivan and Wanjia Zhu

31228: The Effect of a Peer's Teen Pregnancy on Sexual Behavior

Priyanka Anand and Lisa B. Kahn

31227: Subjecting the ‘Average Joe’ to War Theatre Triggers Intimate Partner Violence

Resul Cesur and Arzu Kibris

31226: Swallow This: Childhood and Adolescent Exposure to Fast Food Restaurants, BMI, and Cognitive Ability

Sara Sofie Abrahamsson, Aline Bütikofer and Krzysztof Karbownik

31225: Norderfriedrichskoog! Tax Havens, Tax Competition and the Introduction of a Minimum Tax Rate

William Boning, Drahomir Klimsa, Joel Slemrod and Robert Ullmann

31224: Debt and Deficits: Fiscal Analysis with Stationary Ratios

John Campbell, Can Gao and Ian Martin

31223: The Great Equalizer: Medicare and the Geography of Consumer Financial Strain

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Maxim Pinkovskiy and Jacob Wallace

31222: Generative AI and Firm Values

Andrea Eisfeldt, Gregor Schubert and Miao Ben Zhang

31221: The Unequal Economic Consequences of Carbon Pricing

Diego Känzig

31220: The Incidence of the Affordable Care Act’s Dependent Coverage Mandate

Sherry A. Glied and Hansoo Ko

31219: An Alternative to the Basic Causal Requirement for Liability under the Negligence Rule

Steven Shavell

31218: Inflation and GDP Dynamics in Production Networks: A Sufficient Statistics Approach

Hassan Afrouzi and Saroj Bhattarai

31217: The People and the Experts

William Nordhaus and Douglas Rivers

31216: Financial Crises and the Global Supply Network: Evidence from Multinational Enterprises

Sergi Basco, Giulia Felice, Bruno Merlevede and Martí Mestieri

31215: Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion

Alex Edmans, Caroline Flammer and Simon Glossner

31214: Learning, Diversity and Adaptation in Changing Environments: The Role of Weak Links

Daron Acemoglu, Asuman Ozdaglar and Sarath Pattathil

31213: The Labor Market Effects of Occupational Licensing in the Public Sector

Morris M. Kleiner and Wenchen Wang

31212: The Gender Well-being Gap

David Blanchflower and Alex Bryson

31211: Inflation Strikes Back: The Role of Import Competition and the Labor Market

Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, Fatih Karahan and Aysegul Sahin

31210: Toward an Understanding of Tax Amnesties: Theory and Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment

Patricia Gil, Justin Holz, John List, Andrew Simon and Alejandro Zentner

31209: Information Flows, Organizational Structure, and Corporate Governance

Nadya Malenko

31208: Building Resilient Education Systems: Evidence from Large-Scale Randomized Trials in Five Countries

Noam Angrist, Micheal Ainomugisha, Sai Pramod Bathena, Peter Bergman, Colin Crossley, Claire Cullen, Thato Letsomo, Moitshepi Matsheng, Rene Marlon Panti, Shwetlena Sabarwal and Tim Sullivan

31207: Monetary Policy without Commitment

Hassan Afrouzi, Marina Halac, Kenneth Rogoff and Pierre Yared

31206: Who Benefits from State Corporate Tax Cuts? A Local Labor Market Approach with Heterogeneous Firms: Further Results

Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato and Owen Zidar

31205: Work Hours Mismatch

Marta Lachowska, Alexandre Mas, Raffaele Saggio and Stephen Woodbury

31204: War Discourse and Disaster Premia: 160 Years of Evidence from Stock and Bond Markets

David Hirshleifer, Dat Y. Mai and Kuntara Pukthuanthong

31203: Randomized Regulation: The Impact of Minimum Quality Standards on Health Markets

Guadalupe Bedoya, Jishnu Das and Amy Dolinger

31202: The Rise of E-Wallets and Buy-Now-Pay-Later: Payment Competition, Credit Expansion, and Consumer Behavior

Wenlong Bian, Lin Cong and Yang Ji

31201: Learning, Sophistication, and the Returns to Advertising: Implications for Differences in Firm Performance

Steven Tadelis, Christopher Hooton, Utsav Manjeer, Daniel Deisenroth, Nils Wernerfelt, Nick Dadson and Lindsay Greenbaum

31200: Mortality Differentials, the Racial and Ethnic Retirement Wealth Gap, and the Great Pandemic

Edward N. Wolff

31199: Estimating a Theoretically Consistent Human Capital Production Function With an Application to Head Start

Robert Kaestner and Luis F. Faundez

31198: A Simple Model of a Central Bank Digital Currency

Bineet Mishra and Eswar Prasad

31197: It’s Baaack: The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve

Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti Eggertsson

31196: Minimum Wage Effects Within Census Based Statistical Areas: A Matched Pair Cross-Border Analysis

Garrett C. Taylor and James West

31195: Efficiency in Household Decision Making: Evidence from the Retirement Savings of U.S. Couples

Taha Choukhmane, Lucas Goodman and Cormac O'Dea

31194: Nonlinear Budget Set Regressions for the Random Utility Model

Sören Blomquist, Anil Kumar, Che-Yuan Liang and Whitney Newey

31193: How Many Americans Work Remotely? A Survey of Surveys and Their Measurement Issues

Erik Brynjolfsson, John Horton, Christos Makridis, Alexandre Mas, Adam Ozimek, Daniel Rock and Hong-Yi TuYe

31192: Managers and Productivity in Retail

Robert Metcalfe, Alexandre Sollaci and Chad Syverson

31191: The Effects of Minimum Wages on (Almost) Everything? A Review of Recent Evidence on Health and Related Behaviors

David Neumark

31190: Inflation Expectations and Misallocation of Resources: Evidence from Italy

Tiziano Ropele, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Olivier Coibion

31189: Microdata and the Valuation of Natural Capital

Jonathan Colmer and John L. Voorheis

31188: The Path of Student Learning Delay During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Michigan

Katharine O. Strunk, Bryant G. Hopkins, Tara Kilbride, Scott Imberman and Dongming Yu

31187: Why Did Putin Invade Ukraine? A Theory of Degenerate Autocracy

Georgy Egorov and Konstantin Sonin

31186: Where Do STEM Graduates Stem From? The Intergenerational Transmission of Comparative Skill Advantages

Eric Hanushek, Babs Jacobs, Guido Schwerdt, Rolf Van der Velden, Stan Vermeulen and Simon Wiederhold

31185: Can Deficits Finance Themselves?

George-Marios Angeletos, Chen Lian and Christian Wolf

31184: A Local Projections Approach to Difference-in-Differences

Arindrajit Dube, Daniele Girardi, Oscar Jorda and Alan Taylor

31183: From Carry Trades to Trade Credit: Financial Intermediation by Non-Financial Corporations

Bryan Hardy and Felipe Saffie

31182: Minimum Wages and Poverty: New Evidence from Dynamic Difference-in-Differences Estimates

Richard Burkhauser, Drew McNichols and Joseph J. Sabia

31181: Incorporating Theory-Consistent Endogenous Markups into Applied General-Equilibrium Models

James Markusen

31180: The Secular Decrease in UK Safe Asset Market Power

Jason Choi, Duong Q. Dang, Rishabh Kirpalani and Diego J. Perez

31179: Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation

Diego Comin, Robert Johnson and Callum J. Jones

31178: Mild Government Failure

Shang-Jin Wei, Jianhuan Xu, Ge Yin and Xiaobo Zhang

31177: Parental and Student Time Use Around the Academic Year

Benjamin Cowan, Todd Jones and Jeffrey M. Swigert

31176: Traditional Institutions in Modern Times: Dowries as Pensions When Sons Migrate

Natalie Bau, Gaurav Khanna, Corinne Low and Alessandra Voena

31175: Why Do Older Scholars Slow Down?

Daniel Hamermesh and Lea-Rachel Kosnik

31174: Search Theory of Imperfect Competition with Decreasing Returns to Scale

Guido Menzio

31173: Inflation Surge and Sovereign Borrowing: The Role of Policy Practices in Strengthening Sovereign Resilience

Joshua Aizenman and Huanhuan Zheng

31172: Applications or Approvals: What Drives Racial Disparities in the Paycheck Protection Program?

Sergey Chernenko, Nathan Kaplan, Asani Sarkar and David Scharfstein

31171: The 2014 Russia Shock and Its Effects on Italian Firms and Banks

Stefano Federico, Giuseppe Marinelli and Francesco Palazzo

31170: Does Monetary Policy Matter? The Narrative Approach after 35 Years

Christina Romer and David Romer

31169: Logrolling in Congress

Marco Battaglini, Valerio Leone Sciabolazza and Eleonora Patacchini

31168: International Diversification, Reallocation, and the Labor Share

Joel David, Romain Ranciere and David Zeke

31167: How Far Goods Travel: Global Transport and Supply Chains from 1965-2020

Sharat Ganapati and Woan Foong Wong

31166: Do Banks Hedge Using Interest Rate Swaps?

Lihong McPhail, Philipp Schnabl and Bruce Tuckman

31165: CHOICE – What Can Go Wrong?

Daniel McFadden

31164: Collateral Advantage: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Global Cycles

Michael Devereux, Charles Engel and Steve Pak Yeung Wu

31163: Wage Inequality in American Manufacturing, 1820-1940: New Evidence

Jeremy Atack, Robert Margo and Paul Rhode