NBER Working Papers

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35186: AlphaGlass: Interpretable Characteristic-Based Portfolio Choice

Sebastian Bell, Ali Kakhbod, Martin Lettau and Abdolreza Nazemi

35185: Revealing Life Preferences Through LLMs

Omar Abdel Haq, Amitabh Chandra, Tomáš Jagelka, Erzo Luttmer and Joshua Schwartzstein

35184: Breaking the Early Bell: Lessons from the First Statewide Mandate on School Start Times

Jialu (Gloria) Dou, Rania Gihleb, Osea Giuntella and Jakub Lonsky

35183: What Does A Grade Mean? Informativeness and Strategic Manipulation of Grading Systems

Joshua Gans and Scott Kominers

35182: Growth is Getting Harder to Find, Not Ideas

Teresa Fort, Nathan Goldschlag, Jack Liang, Peter Schott and Nikolas Zolas

35181: Youth Mental Health and School Smartphone Bans: Early Evidence

Henry Saffer

35180: The Persistence of Power: How Family Origins Shape Political Representation and Policy

Eric Chyn, Katherine Cohen, Kareem Haggag and Bryan Stuart

35179: Bachelors Without Bachelor's: Gender Gaps in Education and Declining Marriage Rates

Clara Chambers, Benjamin Goldman and Joseph Winkelmann

35178: Earnings Management and Price Informativeness

Zhiguo He, Wenxi Jiang and Wei Xiong

35177: Separations Revisited: Do Layoffs or Quits Drive Lower Separation Rates in High-Quality Firms?

Caue Dobbin, Daniel Fernandez and Tom Zohar

35176: Measuring Water Misallocation in California

Will Rafey

35175: The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations

Martha Elena Delgado Rojas, Juan Herreño, Marc Hofstetter and Mathieu Pedemonte

35174: Authority Figures and the Polarization of Gender Norms

Ali Abboud, Samuel Bazzi, Serena Canaan, Antoine Deeb and Pierre Mouganie

35173: How does Medicare Eligibility affect Choice and Utilization? Evidence from Veterans

Marion Aouad, Liam Rose and Todd Wagner

35172: Competitive Exposure and Entrepreneurial Experimentation

Joshua Gans

35171: Labor Market Effects of California’s $20 Fast-Food Minimum Wage

Arindrajit Dube

35170: Extreme Equilibria: The Benefits of Correlation

Kirill Rudov, Fedor Sandomirskiy and Leeat Yariv

35169: Opt In? Opt Out?

Alex Chan, Ayush Gupta and Yetong Xu

35168: The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications

Anton Cheremukhin, Sewon Hur, Ronald Mau, Karel Mertens, Alexander Richter and Xiaoqing Zhou

35167: On the Negative Consequences of Low-Wage Offshoring for Innovation

Wulong Gu, Alla Lileeva and Daniel Trefler

35166: Interest Rate Caps, Competition, and Strategic Borrowing: Evidence from Kenya

Aroon Narayanan, Tavneet Suri and Prashant Bharadwaj

35165: Health Inequalities Among Danish Retirees 2004-2022

Paul Bingley, Nabanita Datta Gupta, Malene Kallestrup-Lamb and Alexander O.K. Marin

35164: How Should Central Banks Respond to Commodity Price Shocks? Optimal Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks for Commodity-Exposed Economies

Thomas Drechsel, Michael McLeay, Silvana Tenreyro and Enrico D. Turri

35163: How Poverty Fell

Vincent J. Armentano, Paul Niehaus and Tom Vogl

35162: Tipping Points and Australia’s Social Media Ban

Leonardo Bursztyn, Angela L. Duckworth, Rafael Jiménez-Durán, Aaron Leonard, Filip Milojević, Christopher Roth and Cass Sunstein

35161: Shaping Society's Character: The Role of Schools in Developing Social and Emotional Skills

Sule Alan

35160: Adolescent Behavior, Learning, and Knowledge Diffusion: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment

Sule Alan, Kumar Biswas, Christina S. Hauser and Shwetlena Sabarwal

35159: Data Neutrality, Data Supply, and Market Competition

Hanming Fang and Soo Jin Kim

35158: Mosaics of Predictability

Lin Cong, Guanhao Feng, Jingyu He and Yuanzhi Wang

35157: Automation, Learning, and Career Dynamics

Hassan Afrouzi, Andres Blanco, Andrés Drenik and Erik Hurst

35156: Trade and the End of Antiquity

Johannes Boehm and Thomas Chaney

35155: When Does Automating AI Research Produce Explosive Growth? Feedback Loops in Innovation Networks

Tom Davidson, Basil Halperin, Thomas Houlden and Anton Korinek

35154: Replacement and Reputation

Navin Kartik, Elliot Lipnowski and Harry Pei

35153: AI Managed Household Portfolios: A Preliminary Report

Bruce I. Carlin, Ryan Israelsen and Christopher F. Wazzan

35152: Mothers, Schools, and the Making of American Human Capital Mobility

Lukas Althoff, Harriet M. Brookes Gray and Hugo Reichardt

35151: Retrospective Versus Prospective Meritocracy

Steven Durlauf

35150: Beliefs, Attention, and Investments in Early Childhood

Flavio Cunha, Snejana Nihtianova, Jessica Rood and Anja-Lize van der Merwe

35149: Firm Pay, Amenities, and Inequality

Sydnee Caldwell, Ingrid Haegele and Jörg Heining

35148: The Labor Market as an Equilibrium Newsvendor Problem

Alexandre Mas

35147: Learning by Mail: The Impact of Correspondence Schools in Early 20th Century America

Daniela Vidart

35146: Understanding Medicaid Managed Care: The Procured Competition Model

Mark Shepard and Jacob Wallace

35145: The Annuity Puzzle Revisited: Barriers, Behavior, and Policy Paths to Lifetime Income

Hal E. Hershfield, Suzanne Shu, Jeffrey Brown, Abigail Hurwitz, Moshe Milevsky, Olivia Mitchell and Tamiko Toland

35144: Characteristics of a Sufficient Statistic to Measure City Housing Prices

Daniel Broxterman, William Larson and Anthony Yezer

35143: How Artificial Intelligence Shapes Science: Evidence from AlphaFold

Ryan R. Hill and Carolyn Stein

35142: Seeing the Goal, Missing the Truth: Human Accountability for AI Bias

Sean S. Cao, Wei Jiang and Hui Xu

35141: The Microstructure of AI Diffusion: Evidence from Firms, Business Functions, and Worker Tasks

Kathryn Bonney, Cory L. Breaux, Emin Dinlersoz, Lucia Foster, John Haltiwanger and Aditya A. Pande

35140: Who Marries Whom? The Role of Segregation by Race and Class

Benjamin Goldman, Jamie Gracie and Sonya Porter

35139: Filling the Gaps with MICE: Addressing Missing Data in Real Estate Price Indices

Miriam Steurer and Sabrina S. Spiegel

35138: Power to the Personnel? The Impacts of Managerial Discretion vs. Worker Democracy in Employee Recognition

Namrata Kala and Madeline McKelway

35137: Till the IRS Do Us Part: (Optimal) Taxation of Households

Hans Holter, Dirk Krueger and Serhiy Stepanchuk

35136: The State-Contingent Debt Premium: Evidence from French Public Bonds

Kris James Mitchener and Goncalo Pina

35135: The Value of Reliable Statistics

Nicholas Bloom, Erica Groshen, Duncan Hobbs and Michael Strain

35134: Taxes and Financial Distress: Evidence from Establishment-Level Data

Mara Faccio and Stefano Manfredonia

35133: Technology Adoption and Optimal Policy

Fernando E. Alvarez, Francisco Buera and Nicholas Trachter

35132: The Effects of School Phone Bans: National Evidence from Lockable Pouches

Hunt Allcott, E. Jason Baron, Thomas Dee, Angela L. Duckworth, Matthew Gentzkow and Brian Jacob

35131: Wind Turbine Proximity and Health: Longitudinal Evidence from U.S. Households

Niklas Rott, Douglas Almond and Osea Giuntella

35130: The Success of the Embedded State in England

Leander Heldring, Davis Kedrosky, James Robinson and Matthias Weigand

35129: Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0

Elizabeth Cox and Chloe East

35128: Complementary Climate Policies for Supply and Demand

Geir Asheim and Bard Harstad

35127: Monetary Policy According to Households: Perceptions, Reactions and Channels

Francesco Grigoli, Damiano Sandri, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Olivier Coibion

35126: Industrial Policy with Development Characteristics: Fertilizer Policy in Times of Crisis

Wyatt Brooks and Kevin Donovan

35125: Sticky Traditions: Origin, Persistence, and Evolution of Cultural Norms

Paola Giuliano

35124: Rental Prices and the Cost of Living in the United States, 1914–2006

Ronan Lyons, Allison Shertzer and Rowena Gray

35123: Understanding Firms' AI Efforts and Their Economic Impact

Tania Babina

35122: Risky Insurance: Life-Cycle Insurance Portfolio Choice with Incomplete Markets

Joseph S. Briggs, Ciaran Rogers and Christopher Tonetti

35121: Comparative Advantage and Colonial Monopoly: The Political Economy of Exclusive Trading Companies

Sebastian Galiani, Ivan Lopez Cruz, Alessandra A. Palazzo and Gustavo Torrens

35120: Hysteresis and Selection in the Rise of Fascism: The ‘Ordinary Men’ of the Nazi Party

Luis Bosshart, Max Deter, Leander Heldring, Cathrin C. Mohr and Matthias Weigand

35119: How Reform Happens

Simeon Djankov, Edward Glaeser and Andrei Shleifer

35118: Gender-Specific Economic Shocks and Household Bargaining Power

Rania Gihleb, Osea Giuntella and Dor Morag

35117: Does Employment Slow Cognitive Decline? Evidence from Labor Market Shocks

Noah Arman Kouchekinia, David Neumark and Tim A. Bruckner

35116: Hedging Ambiguity with Pro-Social Preferences: an Illustration from Green Finance

Geoffrey Heal and Marcella Lucchetta

35115: On the Resilience of Payment Methods

Fernando E. Alvarez, David Argente and Diana Van Patten

35114: Intermediate Input Prices and the Labor Share

Juanma Castro-Vincenzi and Benny Kleinman

35113: A Blended Data Approach to Measuring Monthly Housing Starts: Satellite Imagery, Survey Data and More!

Nicole Czaplicki, Colin J. Shevlin, Hector R. Ferronato, Aidan D. Smith, Dwarakh V. Nayam, Lei Peng, Scott W. Springer and Doren Walker

35112: Active Choice Interventions at Scale: Browser Defaults under the Digital Markets Act

Jesper Akesson, Kush Amlani, Raul Cepeda Suarez, Emily Chissell, Stefan Hunt, Michael Luca and Gemma Petrie

35111: The Welfare Effects of Protecting Older Workers

Todd Morris, Stefan Staubli and Benoit Dostie

35110: How (un)Stable Are LLM Occupational Exposure Scores? Evidence from Multi-Model Replication

Michelle Yin, Hoa Vu and Claudia Persico

35109: Early Childcare Attendance and Cognitive skills in Adolescence

Ingvild Almås, Nina Drange, Costas Meghir and Henrik D. Zachrisson

35108: Effects of Expanding Contraceptive Choice: New Evidence from Virginia's Contraceptive Access Initiative

Jessica H. Kiser, Analisa Packham, Janelle Anthony, Evelyn Escobar and Emily Yeatts

35107: The Domestic Political Economy of War: Evidence from Russia

Alena Gorbuntsova, Gaurav Khanna and Sultan Mehmood

35106: China's Global Ownership

Jennie Bai, Luc Laeven, Yaojun Ke and Hong Ru

35105: Trends in Health Inequalities among Spanish Retirees

Cristina Bellés-Obrero, Manuel Flores, Pilar Garcia-Gomez, Sergi Jimenez-Martin and Judit Vall Castello

35104: How New Products Enter Markets: Social Networks, Consumer Imports, and Retailer Learning

David Argente, Esteban Méndez and Diana Van Patten

35103: Nudging Parents out the Door: The Impacts of Parental Encouragement on School Choice and Test Scores

Guthrie Gray-Lobe, Michael Kremer, Joost de Laat, Oluchi Mbonu and Cole Scanlon

35102: The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Insights from 180 Years of U.S. Trade Policy

Tamar den Besten, Régis Barnichon, Diego Känzig and Aayush Singh

35101: The Political Economy of Financial Crises

Charles Calomiris and Matthew Jaremski

35100: Measuring the Impact of Data Centers in the United States Economy: Monetary Damage from Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Nicholas Muller

35099: Organizational Targets in General Equilibrium

Joel Flynn, George Nikolakoudis and Karthik A. Sastry

35098: Treasury Supply Shocks: Propagation Through Debt Expansion and Maturity Adjustment

Huixin Bi, Maxime Phillot and Sarah Zubairy

35097: Health Inequalities among Retirees in the Netherlands

Adriaan Kalwij and Arie Kapteyn

35096: Declining Occupations and Career Outcomes in Norway

Erling Barth, Maria Hoen, Sari Pekkala Kerr and William Kerr

35095: Homemade Foreign Trading

Zhiguo He, Yuehan Wang and Xiaoquan Zhu

35094: Changes in Health Inequalities among Older Individuals in Japan

Takashi Oshio and Satoshi Shimizutani

35093: The Inefficient Pricing of News

Antoine Didisheim, Bryan T. Kelly, Mohammad Pourmohammadi and Hanqing Tian

35092: The Medical Expansion, Life Expectancy, and Endogenous Directed Technical Change

Leon Huetsch, Dirk Krueger and Alexander Ludwig

35091: Belief Dispersion and Entrepreneurial Entry

Joshua Gans

35090: Information Treatments, Hypotheticals, and Event Studies: Comparative Estimates

Carola Binder, Dimitris Georgarakos, Pei Kuang and Li Tang

35089: Aging at the Very Top

Valentin Kecht, Alessandro Lizzeri and Farzad Saidi

35088: The Declining Local Bias of Entrepreneurship in the United States

Innessa Colaiacovo, Margaret G. Dalton, Sari Pekkala Kerr and William Kerr

35087: The Unseen Costs of Blue Skies: Pollutant Substitution and Biodiversity Loss

Joshua Graff Zivin, Siyuan Li, Huanhuan Wang and Zhiqiang Zhang