NBER Working Papers

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28311: Trauma at School: The Impacts of Shootings on Students' Human Capital and Economic Outcomes

Marika Cabral, Bokyung Kim, Maya Rossin-Slater, Molly Schnell and Hannes Schwandt

28310: Measuring Unemployment in Crisis: Effects of COVID-19 on Potential Biases in the CPS

Ori Heffetz and Daniel Reeves

28309: Cities, Productivity, and Trade

Alvaro Garcia-Marin, Andrei V. Potlogea, Nico Voigtländer and Yang Yang

28308: Self-image Bias and Lost Talent

Marciano Siniscalchi and Pietro Veronesi

28307: Exposure to a School Shooting and Subsequent Well-Being

Phillip Levine and Robin McKnight

28306: Event-day Options

Jonathan Wright

28305: Vertical Integration of Healthcare Providers Increases Self-Referrals and Can Reduce Downstream Competition: The Case of Hospital-Owned Skilled Nursing Facilities

David Cutler, Leemore Dafny, David C. Grabowski, Steven Lee and Christopher Ody

28304: The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates

Francesco Bianchi, Giada Bianchi and Dongho Song

28303: Deaths of Despair and the Incidence of Excess Mortality in 2020

Casey Mulligan

28302: Answering the Queen: Machine Learning and Financial Crises

Jeremy Fouliard, Michael Howell, Helene Rey and Vania Stavrakeva

28301: Borders within Europe

Marta A. Santamaría, Jaume Ventura and Uğur Yeşilbayraktar

28300: Parallel Digital Currencies and Sticky Prices

Harald Uhlig and Taojun Xie

28299: Market Structure and Extortion: Evidence from 50,000 Extortion Payments

Zach Brown, Eduardo Montero, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla and Maria Micaela Sviatschi

28298: Dynamic Banking and the Value of Deposits

Patrick Bolton, Ye Li, Neng Wang and Jinqiang Yang

28297: History’s Masters: The Effect of European Monarchs on State Performance

Sebastian Ottinger and Nico Voigtländer

28296: Political Parties as Drivers of U.S. Polarization: 1927-2018

Nathan Canen, Chad Kendall and Francesco Trebbi

28295: Family Support in Hard Times: Dynamics of Intergenerational Exchange after Adverse Events

Jessamyn Schaller and Chase S. Eck

28294: Wage Risk and Government and Spousal Insurance

Mariacristina De Nardi, Giulio Fella and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo

28293: Comparing Conventional and Machine-Learning Approaches to Risk Assessment in Domestic Abuse Cases

Jeffrey Grogger, Sean Gupta, Ria Ivandic and Tom Kirchmaier

28292: Sovereign Debt Standstills

Juan C. Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and César Sosa-Padilla

28291: Scarred but Wiser: World War 2’s COVID Legacy

Michael Lokshin, Vladimir Kolchin and Martin Ravallion

28290: Advanced Technologies Adoption and Use by U.S. Firms: Evidence from the Annual Business Survey

Nikolas Zolas, Zachary Kroff, Erik Brynjolfsson, Kristina McElheran, David N. Beede, Catherine Buffington, Nathan Goldschlag, Lucia Foster and Emin Dinlersoz

28289: Exporting from China: The Determinants of Trade Status

Russell Cooper, Guan Gong, Guanliang Hu and Ping Yan

28288: Detecting Drivers of Behavior at an Early Age: Evidence from a Longitudinal Field Experiment

Marco Castillo, John List, Ragan Petrie and Anya Samek

28287: Infrastructure and Urban Form

Edward Glaeser

28286: Who Supplies PPP Loans (And Does it Matter)? Banks, Relationships and the COVID Crisis

Lei Li and Philip Strahan

28285: Digital Capital and Superstar Firms

Prasanna Tambe, Lorin Hitt, Daniel Rock and Erik Brynjolfsson

28284: Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics: An Expected Utility Framework

Jess Benhabib, Xuewen Liu and Pengfei Wang

28283: The Social Side of Early Human Capital Formation: Using a Field Experiment to Estimate the Causal Impact of Neighborhoods

John List, Fatemeh Momeni and Yves Zenou

28282: Integrated Epi-Econ Assessment

Timo Boppart, Karl Harmenberg, John Hassler, Per Krusell and Jonna Olsson

28281: Macroeconomic Expectations and Credit Card Spending

Misha Galashin, Martin Kanz and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

28280: Uniform Admissions, Unequal Access: Did the Top 10% Plan Increase Access to Selective Flagship Institutions?

Kalena Cortes and Daniel Klasik

28279: Why Does the U.S. Have the Best Research Universities? Incentives, Resources, and Virtuous Circles

W. Bentley Macleod and Miguel Urquiola

28278: Latent Exports: Almost Ideal Gravity and Zeros

James Anderson and Penglong Zhang

28277: Pound for Pound Export Diversification

James Anderson and Yoto Yotov

28276: Informal Central Bank Communication

Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

28275: Effects of Reduced Workplace Presence on COVID-19 Deaths: An Instrumental-Variables Approach

John McLaren and Su Wang

28274: Specialization, Market Access and Real Income

Dominick Bartelme, Ting Lan and Andrei Levchenko

28273: Identifying the Latent Space Geometry of Network Models through Analysis of Curvature

Shane Lubold, Arun Chandrasekhar and Tyler H. McCormick

28272: Dynamic Price Competition, Learning-By-Doing and Strategic Buyers

Andrew Sweeting, Dun Jia, Shen Hui and Xinlu Yao

28271: Gentrification and Retail Churn: Theory and Evidence

Edward Glaeser, Michael Luca and Erica Moszkowski

28270: Religion and Educational Mobility in Africa

Alberto Alesina, Sebastian Hohmann, Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou

28269: Do Employees Benefit from Worker Representation on Corporate Boards?

Christine Blandhol, Magne Mogstad, J Peter Nilsson and Ola Vestad

28268: Prep School for Poor Kids: The Long-Run Impacts of Head Start on Human Capital and Economic Self-Sufficiency

Martha Bailey, Shuqiao Sun and Brenden Timpe

28267: Information, Preferences, and Household Demand for School Value Added

Robert Ainsworth, Rajeev Dehejia, Cristian Pop-Eleches and Miguel Urquiola

28266: Supply-Side Variation in the Use of Emergency Departments

Dan Zeltzer, Liran Einav, Avichai Chasid and Ran D. Balicer

28265: What Were the Odds? Estimating the Market's Probability of Uncertain Events

Ashley Langer and Derek Lemoine

28264: When the Great Equalizer Shuts Down: Schools, Peers, and Parents in Pandemic Times

Francesco Agostinelli, Matthias Doepke, Giuseppe Sorrenti and Fabrizio Zilibotti

28263: International Trade and Earnings Inequality: A New Factor Content Approach

Rodrigo Adão, Paul Carrillo, Arnaud Costinot, Dave Donaldson and Dina Pomeranz

28262: Consumer Protection for Financial Inclusion in Low and Middle Income Countries: Bridging Regulator and Academic Perspectives

Seth Garz, Xavier Gine, Dean Karlan, Rafe Mazer, Caitlin Sanford and Jonathan Zinman

28261: Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Non-Ergodicity & Wealth Inequality

Roger Farmer and Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

28260: Pricing Currency Risks

Mikhail Chernov, Magnus Dahlquist and Lars A. Lochstoer

28259: Business-Level Expectations and Uncertainty

Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis, Lucia Foster, Brian Lucking, Scott Ohlmacher and Itay Saporta-Eksten

28258: Aggregate-Demand Amplification of Supply Disruptions: The Entry-Exit Multiplier

Florin Bilbiie and Marc Melitz

28257: AI and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies

Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, Jonathon Hazell and Pascual Restrepo

28256: Public and Private Options in Practice: The Military Health System

Michael D. Frakes, Jonathan Gruber and Timothy Justicz

28255: Are We Spending Enough on Teachers in the U.S.?

Patrick Bayer, Peter Q. Blair and Kenneth Whaley

28254: Optimal Default Options

B. Douglas Bernheim and Jonas Mueller Gastell

28253: Passive Investing and the Rise of Mega-Firms

Hao Jiang, Dimitri Vayanos and Lu Zheng

28252: Why is Intermediating Houses so Difficult? Evidence from iBuyers

Greg Buchak, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski and Amit Seru

28251: Away from Home and Back: Coordinating (Remote) Workers in 1800 and 2020

Réka Juhász, Mara P. Squicciarini and Nico Voigtländer

28250: A Thousand Cuts: Cumulative Lead Exposure Reduces Academic Achievement

Alex Hollingsworth, Mike Huang, Ivan J. Rudik and Nicholas J. Sanders

28249: Learning to Navigate a New Financial Technology: Evidence from Payroll Accounts

Emily Breza, Martin Kanz and Leora Klapper

28248: Why Do Sectoral Employment Programs Work? Lessons from WorkAdvance

Lawrence Katz, Jonathan Roth, Richard Hendra and Kelsey Schaberg

28247: A Macroeconomic Model of Healthcare Saturation, Inequality and the Output-Pandemia Tradeoff

Enrique Mendoza, Eugenio Rojas, Linda Tesar and Jing Zhang

28246: School Closures During the 1918 Flu Pandemic

Philipp Ager, Katherine Eriksson, Ezra Karger, Peter Nencka and Melissa Thomasson

28245: Early Career Setbacks and Women’s Career-Family Trade-Off

Itzik Fadlon, Frederik Plesner Lyngse and Torben Nielsen

28244: Estimating the Price Elasticity of Demand for Subways: Evidence from Mexico

Lucas Davis

28243: Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change, and Conflict in Africa

Eoin McGuirk and Nathan Nunn

28242: In the Red: Overdrafts, Payday Lending and the Underbanked

Marco Di Maggio, Angela T. Ma and Emily Williams

28241: Simple and Credible Value-Added Estimation Using Centralized School Assignment

Joshua Angrist, Peter Hull, Parag Pathak and Christopher Walters

28240: When Workers Travel: Nursing Supply During COVID-19 Surges

Joshua Gottlieb and Avi Zenilman

28239: Where Does Wealth Come From?

Sandra Black, Paul Devereux, Fanny Landaud and Kjell G Salvanes

28238: A Panel Regression Approach to Holdings-based Fund Performance Measures

Wayne Ferson and Junbo L. Wang

28237: Central Bank Digital Currency: When Price and Bank Stability Collide

Linda Schilling, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Harald Uhlig

28236: Understanding Debt in the Older Population

Annamaria Lusardi, Olivia Mitchell and Noemi Oggero

28235: What Makes a Tax Evader?

Marcelo Bergolo, Martin Leites, Ricardo Perez-Truglia and Matias Strehl

28234: Social Networks Shape Beliefs and Behavior: Evidence from Social Distancing During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Michael Bailey, Drew M. Johnston, Martin Koenen, Theresa Kuchler, Dominic Russel and Johannes Stroebel

28233: The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity

Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka and Gregory Thwaites

28232: U.S. Macro Policies and Global Economic Challenges

Joshua Aizenman and Hiro Ito

28231: Internet Access and U.S. - China Innovation Competition

Gerard Hoberg, Yuan Li and Gordon Phillips

28230: Long-Term Effects of Equal Sharing: Evidence from Inheritance Rules for Land

Charlotte Bartels, Simon Jäger and Natalie Obergruber

28229: The Accuracy of Tax Imputations: Estimating Tax Liabilities and Credits Using Linked Survey and Administrative Data

Bruce Meyer, Derek Wu, Grace Finley, Patrick Langetieg, Carla Medalia, Mark Payne and Alan Plumley

28228: Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections

Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch

28227: A Model of Occupational Licensing and Statistical Discrimination

Peter Q. Blair and Bobby (Wing Yin) Chung

28226: Climate Finance

Stefano Giglio, Bryan T. Kelly and Johannes Stroebel

28225: The Story of the Real Exchange Rate

Oleg Itskhoki

28224: World War I and the Restructuring of International Business

Ted Fertik and Naomi R. Lamoreaux

28223: Does Eye-Tracking Have an Effect on Economic Behavior?

Jennifer Kee, Melinda Knuth, Joanna Lahey and Marco Palma

28222: Measuring Racial Discrimination in Algorithms

David Arnold, Will S. Dobbie and Peter Hull

28221: Issuance and Incidence: SNAP Benefit Cycles and Grocery Prices

Jacob Goldin, Tatiana Homonoff and Katherine Meckel

28220: Maternal Mortality Risk and Spousal Differences in the Demand for Children

Nava Ashraf, Erica M. Field, Alessandra Voena and Roberta Ziparo

28219: Who Values Future Energy Savings? Evidence from American Drivers

Arik Levinson and Lutz Sager

28218: How Well Insured are Job Losers? Efficacy of the Public Safety Net

Chloe East and David Simon

28217: Child-Driven Parenting: Differential Early Childhood Investment by Offspring Genotype

Asta Breinholt and Dalton Conley

28216: The Gender Gap Among Top Business Executives

Wolfgang Keller, Teresa Molina and William Olney

28215: Economic Analysis and Infrastructure Investment

Edward Glaeser and James Poterba

28214: Selection and Causation in the Parental Education Gradient in Health: Lessons from a Large Sample of Adoptees

Evelina Björkegren, Mikael Lindahl, Mårten Palme and Emilia Simeonova

28213: Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies

Xing Guo, Pablo Ottonello and Diego J. Perez

28212: Education and Consanguineous Marriage

Pelin Akyol and Naci Mocan