The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from the United States

Thomas Fujiwara, Karsten Müller and Carlo Schwarz

No 28849, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We study how social media affects election outcomes in the United States. We use variation in the number of Twitter users across counties induced by early adopters at the 2007 South by Southwest (SXSW) festival, a key event in Twitter's rise to popularity. We show that this variation is unrelated to observable county characteristics and electoral outcomes before the launch of Twitter. Our results indicate that Twitter lowered the Republican vote share in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, but had limited effects on Congress elections and previous presidential elections. Evidence from survey data, primary elections, and a text analysis of millions of tweets suggests that Twitter's relatively liberal content may have persuaded voters with moderate views to vote against Donald Trump.

JEL-codes: D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-cul, nep-pay and nep-pol
Note: POL
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (27)

Published as Thomas Fujiwara & Karsten Müller & Carlo Schwarz, 2024. "The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from The United States," Journal of the European Economic Association, vol 22(3), pages 1495-1539.

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Journal Article: The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from The United States (2024)
Working Paper: The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from the United States (2024)
Working Paper: The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from the United States (2022)
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