Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation

Julian di Giovanni, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Álvaro Silva and Muhammed A. Yildirim

No 30240, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We study the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Euro Area inflation and how it compares to the experiences of other countries, such as the United States, over the two-year period 2020-21. Our model-based calibration exercises deliver four key results: 1) Compositional effects – the switch from services to goods consumption – are amplified through global input-output linkages, affecting both trade and inflation. 2) Inflation can be higher under sector-specific labor shortages relative to a scenario with no such supply shocks. 3) Foreign shocks and global supply chain bottlenecks played an outsized role relative to domestic aggregate demand shocks in explaining Euro Area inflation over 2020-21. 4) International trade did not respond to changes in GDP as strongly as it did during the 2008-09 crisis despite strong demand for goods. These lower trade elasticities in part reflect supply chain bottlenecks. These four results imply that policies aimed at stimulating aggregate demand would not have produced as high an inflation as the one observed in the data without the negative sectoral supply shocks.

JEL-codes: E00 F10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int, nep-mon and nep-opm
Note: EFG IFM
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (48)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w30240.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation (2022)
Working Paper: Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation (2022)
Working Paper: Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation (2022)
Working Paper: Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30240

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w30240

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().