Econometric Causality: The Central Role of Thought Experiments

James Heckman and Rodrigo Pinto

No 31945, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper examines the econometric causal model and the interpretation of empirical evidence based on thought experiments that was developed by Ragnar Frisch and Trygve Haavelmo. We compare the econometric causal model with two currently popular causal frameworks: the Neyman-Rubin causal model and the Do-Calculus. The Neyman-Rubin causal model is based on the language of potential outcomes and was largely developed by statisticians. Instead of being based on thought experiments, it takes statistical experiments as its foundation. The Do-Calculus, developed by Judea Pearl and co-authors, relies on Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and is a popular causal framework in computer science and applied mathematics. We make the case that economists who uncritically use these frameworks often discard the substantial benefits of the econometric causal model to the detriment of more informative analyses. We illustrate the versatility and capabilities of the econometric framework using causal models developed in economics.

JEL-codes: C10 C18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hpe
Note: TWP
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published as James Heckman & Rodrigo Pinto, 2024. "Econometric causality: The central role of thought experiments," Journal of Econometrics, .

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w31945.pdf (application/pdf)
Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.

Related works:
Journal Article: Econometric causality: The central role of thought experiments (2024)
Working Paper: Econometric Causality: The Central Role of Thought Experiments (2023)
Working Paper: Econometric Causality: The Central Role of Thought Experiments (2023)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31945

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w31945
The price is Paper copy available by mail.

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().