Predicted Incrementality by Experimentation (PIE) for Ad Measurement

Brett R. Gordon, Robert Moakler and Florian Zettelmeyer

No 35044, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) provide the most credible estimates of advertising incrementality but are difficult to scale. We propose Predicted Incrementality by Experimentation (PIE), which reframes ad measurement as a campaign-level prediction problem. PIE uses a sample of RCTs to learn a mapping from campaign features to causal effects, then applies it to campaigns not run as RCTs. Because the RCTs identify the causal effects, PIE can incorporate post-determined features—campaign-level aggregates such as test-group outcomes, exposure rates, and last-click conversions, computed after campaign completion. These metrics reflect the consumer behaviors that generate treatment effects, so they carry predictive information about incrementality even though they would be invalid controls in a causal model. Using 2,226 Meta ad experiments, PIE achieves an out-of-sample R2 = 0.88 for incremental conversions per dollar, compared to R2 = 0.19 for industry-standard 7-day last-click attribution. In a decision-making framework, PIE disagrees with RCT-based decisions in only 8–12% of campaigns, compared to 12–20% for last-click attribution. We conclude that PIE can help scale causal measurement from a limited number of RCTs to a large set of non-experimental campaigns.

JEL-codes: L81 L82 L86 M3 M30 M31 M37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp
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