Inflation Surge and Sovereign Borrowing: The Role of Policy Practices in Strengthening Sovereign Resilience

Joshua Aizenman and Huanhuan Zheng

No 31173, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Sovereign borrowing during inflation surges is a litmus test of a government’s ability to withstand and navigate macroeconomic shocks. Based on transaction-level bond issuance data, we explore how sovereign financing strategies differ between surging and stable inflations and how policy practices affect their ability to weather inflation shocks. We find that governments lean more towards external borrowing in foreign currency during periods of high inflation, in part to reduce borrowing costs. This pattern is particularly prevalent in emerging markets (EMs), especially when the inflation surge is prolonged and severe. We further show that good practices of fiscal discipline and credibly pegged exchange rate regime alleviate external borrowing in foreign currency amid inflation surges.

JEL-codes: F21 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-des, nep-mon and nep-opm
Note: IFM
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Journal Article: Inflation Surge and Sovereign Borrowing: The Role of Policy Practices in Strengthening Sovereign Resilience (2024)
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