The Impact of the WWI Agricultural Boom and Bust on Female Opportunity Cost and Fertility

Carl Kitchens and Luke P. Rodgers

No 27530, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Using variation in crop prices induced by large swings in demand surrounding World War I, we examine the fertility response to crop revenue increases from 1910 to 1930. Our estimates from samples utilizing complete count decennial census microdata and newly collected county-level data from state health reports indicate that agricultural price increases reduced fertility, explaining about 9 percent of the overall decline in fertility over the period. The effect persists years after the collapse of the war boom. Importantly, we show that fertility declines were concentrated in women living on the farm and that fertility declined along both the intensive and extensive margins. Combined, the pattern of estimates is consistent with agricultural women experiencing an increase in the opportunity cost of their time.

JEL-codes: J12 J13 N12 N5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dem, nep-his and nep-lab
Note: DAE DEV LS
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Published as Carl T Kitchens & Luke P Rodgers, 2023. "The Impact of the WWI Agricultural Boom and Bust on Female Opportunity Cost and Fertility," The Economic Journal, vol 133(656), pages 2978-3006.

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