The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19

Dhaval Dave, Andrew Friedson, Drew McNichols and Joseph J. Sabia

No 27813, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Large in-person gatherings without social distancing and with individuals who have traveled outside the local area are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID-19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Between August 7 and August 16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual motorcycle rally. Large crowds, coupled with minimal mask-wearing and social distancing by attendees, raised concerns that this event could serve as a COVID-19 “super-spreader.” This study is the first to explore the impact of this event on social distancing and the spread of COVID-19. First, using anonymized cell phone data from SafeGraph, Inc. we document that (i) smartphone pings from non-residents, and (ii) foot traffic at restaurants and bars, retail establishments, entertainment venues, hotels and campgrounds each rose substantially in the census block groups hosting Sturgis rally events. Stay-at-home behavior among local residents, as measured by median hours spent at home, fell. Second, using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and a synthetic control approach, we show that by September 2, a month following the onset of the Rally, COVID-19 cases increased by approximately 6 to 7 cases per 1,000 population in its home county of Meade. Finally, difference-in-differences (dose response) estimates show that following the Sturgis event, counties that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not contribute inflows. Descriptive evidence suggests these effects may be muted in states with stricter mitigation policies (i.e., restrictions on bar/restaurant openings, mask-wearing mandates). We conclude that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally generated public health costs of as much as $12.2 billion.

JEL-codes: H75 I1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-09
Note: AG EH LE
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

Published as Dhaval Dave & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2021. "The contagion externality of a superspreading event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and ‐19," Southern Economic Journal, vol 87(3), pages 769-807.

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Working Paper: The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19 (2020)
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