Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836-2016

Michael Geruso, Dean Spears and Ishaana Talesara

No 26247, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Inversions—in which the popular vote winner loses the election—have occurred in four US presidential races. We show that rather than being statistical flukes, inversions have been ex ante likely since the early 1800s. In elections yielding a popular vote margin within one point (one-eighth of presidential elections), about 40% will be inversions in expectation. We show this conditional probability is remarkably stable across historical periods—despite differences in which groups voted, which states existed, and which parties participated. Our findings imply that the US has experienced so few inversions merely because there have been so few elections (and fewer close elections).

JEL-codes: H0 J1 K16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pol
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Published as Michael Geruso & Dean Spears & Ishaana Talesara, 2022. "Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836–2016," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, vol 14(1), pages 327-357.

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