Long-Run Effects of H-1B Immigration on the U.S. Economy

Ran Abramitzky, Leah Boustan, Ahmet Gulek and Jens Hainmueller

No 35560, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We study the effects of H-1B immigration on U.S. industries that employ H-1B workers and their trading partners. Using a novel cross-industry design and the 1999–2003 expansion of the H-1B visa cap for identification, we find that H-1B exposure raised incomes for natives and pre-existing immigrants, with gains concentrated in non-STEM occupations. Income gains propagate forward through supply chains to downstream industries but not backward to upstream industries, consistent with a productivity shock rather than a labor supply shock. We find no direct effect on patenting, suggesting that productivity gains arise from better task execution rather than patentable invention.

JEL-codes: J60 J68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-07
Note: LS
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