The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession

Tomaz Cajner, Leland Crane, Ryan Decker, John Grigsby, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Erik Hurst, Christopher Kurz and Ahu Yildirmaz

No 27159, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Using weekly administrative payroll data from the largest U.S. payroll processing company, we measure the evolution of the U.S. labor market during the first four months of the global COVID-19 pandemic. After aggregate employment fell by 21 percent through late-April, employment rebounded somewhat through late-June. The re-opening of temporarily shuttered businesses contributed significantly to the employment rebound, particularly for smaller businesses. We show that worker recall has been an important component of recent employment gains for both re-opening and continuing businesses. Employment losses have been concentrated disproportionately among lower wage workers; as of late June employment for workers in the lowest wage quintile was still 20 percent lower relative to mid-February levels. As a result, average base wages increased between February and June, though this increase arose entirely through a composition effect. Finally, we document that businesses have cut nominal wages for almost 7 million workers while forgoing regularly scheduled wage increases for many others.

JEL-codes: E24 E3 J21 L25 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lma and nep-mac
Note: EFG LS
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (95)

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Journal Article: The US Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession (2020)
Working Paper: The U.S. Labor Market During the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession (2020)
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