The US Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession

Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, John Grigsby, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, Erik Hurst, Christopher Kurz and Ahu Yildirmaz
Additional contact information
Leland D. Crane: Federal Reserve Board
Ryan A. Decker: Federal Reserve Board
John Grigsby: University of Chicago
Adrian Hamins-Puertolas: Federal Reserve Board
Erik Hurst: University of Chicago
Christopher Kurz: Federal Reserve Board
Ahu Yildirmaz: Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2020, vol. 51, issue 2 (Summer), 3-33

Abstract: Using weekly administrative payroll data from the largest US payroll processing company, we measure the evolution of the US labor market during the first four months of the global COVID-19 pandemic. After aggregate employment fell by 21 percent through late April, employment rebounded somewhat through late June. The reopening of temporarily shuttered businesses contributed significantly to the employment rebound, particularly for smaller businesses. We show that worker recall has been an important component of recent employment gains for both reopening and continuing businesses. Employment losses have been concentrated disproportionately among lower wage workers; as of late June employment for workers in the lowest wage quintile was still 20 percent lower relative to mid-February levels. As a result, average base wages increased between February and June, though this increase arose entirely through a composition effect. Finally, we document that businesses have cut nominal wages for almost 7 million workers while forgoing regularly scheduled wage increases for many others.

Keywords: COVID-19; US economy; labor market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Related works:
Working Paper: The U.S. Labor Market During the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession (2020)
Working Paper: The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession (2020)
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