On Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions of Expectations

Valerie R. Boctor, Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber

No 32406, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Using data from a large survey of American households, we compare density forecasts elicited with bins- and scenarios-based questions. We show that inflation density forecasts are sensitive to the survey question designs used to elicit them. The within-person discrepancy is smaller, but still discernible, for unemployment expectations. The discrepancy in responses is systematically related to sociodemographic characteristics of respondents. The differences shed light on the significance of priming in bins-based inflation density forecasts.

JEL-codes: C83 D84 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
Note: ME
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w32406.pdf (application/pdf)
Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32406

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w32406
The price is Paper copy available by mail.

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().