Details about Olivier Coibion

Access statistics for papers by Olivier Coibion.

Last updated 2024-11-10. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pco205

Working Papers

2025

1. How Costly Are Business Cycle Volatility and Inflation? A Vox Populi Approach
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

2024

2. Keeping Up With The Jansens: Causal Peer Effects On Household Spending, Beliefs And Happiness
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
   Also in Working Papers, DNB (2024) View citations (1)
   IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2024) View citations (1)
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2024) View citations (1)
3. On Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions of Expectations
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
4. Tell me something I don’t already know: learning in low and high-inflation settings
   Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (2)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2023)
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2023) View citations (6)
   FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2023) View citations (8)
   IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2023) View citations (7)
   See also Journal Article Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low‐ and High‐Inflation Settings, Econometrica, Econometric Society (2025) (2025)
5. The Causal Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Households' Beliefs and Actions
   IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) View citations (3)
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2024) View citations (3)

2023

6. Do You Even Crypto, Bro? Cryptocurrencies in Household Finance
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
   Also in IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2023) View citations (3)
7. Forward Guidance and Household Expectations
   Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley View citations (26)
   Also in IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2020) View citations (74)
   Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2022) View citations (6)
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (75)
   Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2020) View citations (69)
   Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2020) View citations (69)
   Working Papers, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics (2020) View citations (76)
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2020) View citations (75)
   See also Journal Article Forward Guidance and Household Expectations, Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association (2023) View citations (8) (2023)
8. How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial
   Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley View citations (45)
   Also in Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2019) View citations (36)
   Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2019) View citations (34)
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2019) View citations (83)
   IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2019) View citations (84)
   Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2019) View citations (36)
   See also Journal Article How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association (2023) View citations (46) (2023)
9. Inflation Expectations and Misallocation of Resources: Evidence from Italy
   IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2023)
   Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area (2023)
   See also Journal Article Inflation Expectations and Misallocation of Resources: Evidence from Italy, American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association (2024) View citations (5) (2024)
10. Keep Calm and Bank On: Panic-Driven Bank Runs and the Role of Public Communication
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2023) View citations (1)
    BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements (2023) View citations (2)
11. Lifetime Memories of Inflation: Evidence from Surveys and the Lab
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) View citations (2)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2023) View citations (2)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2023)

2022

12. Consumption Inequality and the Frequency of Purchases
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley View citations (5)
    Also in IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2017) View citations (12)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2017) View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article Consumption Inequality and the Frequency of Purchases, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association (2021) View citations (10) (2021)
13. Does Policy Communication during COVID Work?
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley View citations (13)
    Also in Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2020) View citations (35)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (35)
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2020) View citations (35)
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2022) View citations (7)
    Working Papers, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics (2020) View citations (35)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2020) View citations (35)
    See also Journal Article Does Policy Communication during COVID Work?, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2022) View citations (4) (2022)
14. Firms' Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Also in Working papers, Banque de France (2021) View citations (22)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2021) View citations (22)
    See also Journal Article Firms’ Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France, Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association (2024) (2024)
15. Firms’ Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
16. Inflation Expectations and Corporate Borrowing Decisions: New Causal Evidence
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
    Also in IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2022) View citations (1)
17. Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley View citations (3)
    Also in IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2018) View citations (20)
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2019) View citations (33)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2018) View citations (19)
    Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area (2019) View citations (36)
    See also Journal Article Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College (2020) View citations (146) (2020)
18. No firm is an island? How industry conditions shape firms’ expectations
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley View citations (28)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2020) View citations (7)
    Working papers, Banque de France (2020) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article No firm is an island? How industry conditions shape firms’ expectations, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2022) View citations (12) (2022)
19. The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) View citations (7)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2022) View citations (8)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)
    See also Journal Article The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions, Econometrica, Econometric Society (2023) View citations (20) (2023)
20. The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of U.S. Households before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) View citations (8)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2022) View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of US Households Before and During the COVID19 Pandemic, IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan (2023) View citations (6) (2023)
21. The Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (8)
22. The Macroeconomic Expectations of U.S. Managers
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
23. The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2022) View citations (94)
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2022) View citations (93)
    See also Journal Article The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications, Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association (2022) View citations (92) (2022)

2021

24. Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (16)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (38)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (37)
    See also Journal Article Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations, Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press (2023) View citations (18) (2023)
25. Do You Know that I Know that You Know…? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley View citations (32)
    See also Journal Article Do You Know that I Know that You Know…? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data*, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College (2021) View citations (27) (2021)
26. FISCAL POLICY AND HOUSEHOLDS’ INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: EVIDENCE FROM A RANDOMIZED CONTROL TRIAL
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (23)
27. Fiscal Policy and Households' Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) View citations (23)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2021) View citations (23)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2021) View citations (23)
28. THE INFLATION EXPECTATIONS OF U.S. FIRMS: EVIDENCE FROM A NEW SURVEY
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (6)
    Also in IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2021) View citations (44)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2021) View citations (43)
    See also Journal Article The inflation expectations of U.S. firms: Evidence from a new survey, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2024) View citations (2) (2024)
29. The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (40)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2021) View citations (39)
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2021) View citations (39)
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2021) View citations (39)
    See also Journal Article The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2024) View citations (16) (2024)

2020

30. Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (65)
31. Does Policy Communication during COVID-19 Work?
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) View citations (35)
32. Greater Inequality and Household Borrowing: New Evidence from Household Data
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley View citations (24)
    See also Journal Article Greater Inequality and Household Borrowing: New Evidence from Household Data, Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association (2020) View citations (25) (2020)
33. How Did U.S. Consumers Use Their Stimulus Payments?
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (90)
    Also in Working Papers, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics (2020) View citations (98)
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2020) View citations (91)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (90)
34. Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S
    Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, Swiss Finance Institute
    Also in IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund (2012) View citations (124)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2012) View citations (80)
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2012) View citations (103)
35. Labor Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (297)
    Also in IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2020) View citations (298)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2020) View citations (292)
    Working Papers, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics (2020) View citations (290)
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2020) View citations (284)
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2020) View citations (288)
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2020) View citations (200)
36. No Firm is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms' Aggregate Expectations
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (8)
37. Political Polarization and Expected Economic Outcomes
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) View citations (23)
    Also in Working Papers, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics (2020) View citations (26)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (26)
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2020) View citations (25)
38. The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley View citations (202)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2020) View citations (231)
    Working Papers, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics (2020) View citations (236)
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2020) View citations (236)
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2020) View citations (225)
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2020) View citations (208)
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2020) View citations (247)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (236)
    See also Journal Article The cost of the COVID-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier (2025) (2025)

2019

39. Do You Know That I Know That You Know?: Higher Order Beliefs in Survey Data
    2019 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2018) View citations (47)
40. Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures, AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association (2019) View citations (18) (2019)
41. Monetary Policy Communications and their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (197)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2019) View citations (190)
    See also Journal Article Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press (2022) View citations (191) (2022)

2018

42. Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (89)
    Also in Working Papers, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics (2018) View citations (59)
    See also Chapter Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2019) View citations (4) (2019)
    Journal Article Inflation expectations as a policy tool?, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier (2020) View citations (214) (2020)
43. The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley View citations (38)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2017) View citations (69)
    See also Journal Article The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution (2018) View citations (66) (2018)

2017

44. Secular Stagnation: Policy Options and the Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output
    Working Papers, National Bank of Ukraine View citations (20)
45. The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (74)
    See also Journal Article The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve, Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association (2018) View citations (214) (2018)

2016

46. Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (3)
    Also in Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (2014) View citations (41)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2014) View citations (61)
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2014) View citations (58)
    2014 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2014) View citations (61)
47. HOW DO FIRMS FORM THEIR EXPECTATIONS? NEW SURVEY EVIDENCE
    2016 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2015) View citations (65)
    See also Journal Article How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2018) View citations (407) (2018)
48. How inertial is monetary policy? implications for the fed’s exit strategy
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley
49. Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero-Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (33)
    Also in Working Papers, eSocialSciences (2016) View citations (41)

2015

50. Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (230)
    See also Journal Article Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution (2015) View citations (229) (2015)

2014

51. COMMENTS ON DOVERN, FRITSCHE, LOUNGANI AND TAMIRISA (FORTHCOMING)
    Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (2)
52. Commodity Price Co-Movement and Global Economic Activity
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (2)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2014) View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article Commodity-price comovement and global economic activity, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2020) View citations (79) (2020)

2013

53. Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (14)
    Also in IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2013) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution (2013) View citations (11) (2013)
54. Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (55)
    See also Journal Article Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association (2015) View citations (576) (2015)
    Chapter Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (65) (2013)
55. The Comovement in Commodity Prices: Sources and Implications
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (21)
56. The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (32)
    Also in IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund (2012) View citations (22)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2012) View citations (24)
    See also Journal Article The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2015) View citations (124) (2015)

2012

57. Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts
    IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund View citations (36)
    Also in Working Papers, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary (2010) View citations (121)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (68)
    See also Journal Article Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2015) View citations (731) (2015)
58. The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?
    2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (328)
    See also Journal Article The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?, The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd (2012) View citations (342) (2012)

2011

59. Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (10)
    Also in Working Papers, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary (2011) View citations (27)
    See also Journal Article Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association (2012) View citations (255) (2012)
60. One for Some or One for All? Taylor Rules and Interregional Heterogeneity
    Working Papers, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary
    See also Journal Article One for Some or One for All? Taylor Rules and Interregional Heterogeneity, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2012) View citations (5) (2012)
61. Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (13)
    Also in Working Papers, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary (2011) View citations (19)
    See also Journal Article Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association (2012) View citations (188) (2012)

2010

62. Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation:An Alternative Interpretation
    Working Papers, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary View citations (41)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2008) View citations (28)
    2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2009) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2011) View citations (320) (2011)
63. Strategic Interaction among Heterogeneous Price-Setters in an Estimated DSGE Model
    Working Papers, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary View citations (2)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2008) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Strategic Interaction among Heterogeneous Price-Setters in an Estimated DSGE Model, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2011) View citations (26) (2011)
64. The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (23)
    Also in Working Papers, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary (2010) View citations (60)
    See also Journal Article The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?, The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd (2012) View citations (342) (2012)
65. The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures
    Working Papers, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary View citations (24)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (22)
    See also Journal Article The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures, Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2014) View citations (80) (2014)
66. What can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities?
    2010 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (13)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2008) View citations (35)
    See also Journal Article What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press (2012) View citations (780) (2012)

2007

67. Testing the Sticky Information Phillips Curve
    Working Papers, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article Testing the Sticky Information Phillips Curve, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2010) View citations (61) (2010)

2006

68. Equilibrium Demand Elasticities across Quality Segments
    Working Papers, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Equilibrium demand elasticities across quality segments, International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier (2007) View citations (13) (2007)

Journal Articles

2025

1. Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low‐ and High‐Inflation Settings
   Econometrica, 2025, 93, (1), 229-264
   See also Working Paper Tell me something I don’t already know: learning in low and high-inflation settings, Working Paper Series (2024) View citations (2) (2024)
2. The cost of the COVID-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending
   Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2025, 229, (C)
   See also Working Paper The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending, Department of Economics, Working Paper Series (2020) View citations (202) (2020)

2024

3. Firms’ Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France
   Journal of the European Economic Association, 2024, 22, (6), 2748-2781
   See also Working Paper Firms' Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France, IZA Discussion Papers (2022) (2022)
4. Inflation Expectations and Misallocation of Resources: Evidence from Italy
   American Economic Review: Insights, 2024, 6, (2), 246-61 View citations (5)
   See also Working Paper Inflation Expectations and Misallocation of Resources: Evidence from Italy, IZA Discussion Papers (2023) (2023)
5. The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending
   American Economic Review, 2024, 114, (3), 645-77 View citations (16)
   See also Working Paper The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending, CEPR Discussion Papers (2021) View citations (40) (2021)
6. The inflation expectations of U.S. firms: Evidence from a new survey
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2024, 145, (S) View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper THE INFLATION EXPECTATIONS OF U.S. FIRMS: EVIDENCE FROM A NEW SURVEY, CEPR Discussion Papers (2021) View citations (6) (2021)

2023

7. Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations
   Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, 2023, 1, (2), 403 - 446 View citations (18)
   See also Working Paper Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations, Working Papers (2021) View citations (16) (2021)
8. Forward Guidance and Household Expectations
   Journal of the European Economic Association, 2023, 21, (5), 2131-2171 View citations (8)
   See also Working Paper Forward Guidance and Household Expectations, Department of Economics, Working Paper Series (2023) View citations (26) (2023)
9. How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial
   American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2023, 15, (3), 109-52 View citations (46)
   See also Working Paper How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial, Department of Economics, Working Paper Series (2023) View citations (45) (2023)
10. Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation of US Firms
    AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2023, 113, 52-55 View citations (1)
11. The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions
    Econometrica, 2023, 91, (4), 1297-1332 View citations (20)
    See also Working Paper The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions, IZA Discussion Papers (2022) View citations (7) (2022)
12. The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of US Households Before and During the COVID19 Pandemic
    IMF Economic Review, 2023, 71, (1), 326-368 View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of U.S. Households before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic, IZA Discussion Papers (2022) View citations (8) (2022)

2022

13. Does Policy Communication during COVID Work?
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2022, 18, (1), 3-39 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper Does Policy Communication during COVID Work?, Department of Economics, Working Paper Series (2022) View citations (13) (2022)
14. Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations
    Journal of Political Economy, 2022, 130, (6), 1537 - 1584 View citations (191)
    See also Working Paper Monetary Policy Communications and their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations, NBER Working Papers (2019) View citations (197) (2019)
15. No firm is an island? How industry conditions shape firms’ expectations
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2022, 125, (C), 40-56 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper No firm is an island? How industry conditions shape firms’ expectations, Department of Economics, Working Paper Series (2022) View citations (28) (2022)
16. The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2022, 36, (3), 157-84 View citations (92)
    See also Working Paper The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications, CEPR Discussion Papers (2022) (2022)

2021

17. Consumption Inequality and the Frequency of Purchases
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2021, 13, (4), 449-82 View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper Consumption Inequality and the Frequency of Purchases, Department of Economics, Working Paper Series (2022) View citations (5) (2022)
18. Do You Know that I Know that You Know…? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data*
    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2021, 136, (3), 1387-1446 View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper Do You Know that I Know that You Know…? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data, Department of Economics, Working Paper Series (2021) View citations (32) (2021)

2020

19. Commodity-price comovement and global economic activity
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2020, 112, (C), 41-56 View citations (79)
    See also Working Paper Commodity Price Co-Movement and Global Economic Activity, Staff Working Papers (2014) View citations (2) (2014)
20. Greater Inequality and Household Borrowing: New Evidence from Household Data
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2020, 18, (6), 2922-2971 View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper Greater Inequality and Household Borrowing: New Evidence from Household Data, Department of Economics, Working Paper Series (2020) View citations (24) (2020)
21. Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence
    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2020, 135, (1), 165-219 View citations (146)
    See also Working Paper Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence, Department of Economics, Working Paper Series (2022) View citations (3) (2022)
22. Inflation expectations as a policy tool?
    Journal of International Economics, 2020, 124, (C) View citations (214)
    See also Working Paper Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?, NBER Working Papers (2018) View citations (89) (2018)
    Chapter Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?, NBER Chapters, 2019 (2019) View citations (4) (2019)

2019

23. Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures
    AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2019, 109, 465-69 View citations (18)
    See also Working Paper Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures, NBER Working Papers (2019) View citations (18) (2019)
24. The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications: Reply
    American Economic Review, 2019, 109, (1), 314-24 View citations (1)

2018

25. How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence
    American Economic Review, 2018, 108, (9), 2671-2713 View citations (407)
    See also Working Paper HOW DO FIRMS FORM THEIR EXPECTATIONS? NEW SURVEY EVIDENCE, 2016 Meeting Papers (2016) View citations (1) (2016)
26. The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2018, 49, (2 (Fall)), 343-441 View citations (66)
    See also Working Paper The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output, Department of Economics, Working Paper Series (2018) View citations (38) (2018)
27. The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve
    Journal of Economic Literature, 2018, 56, (4), 1447-91 View citations (214)
    See also Working Paper The Formation of Expectations, Inflation and the Phillips Curve, NBER Working Papers (2017) View citations (74) (2017)

2017

28. Innocent Bystanders? Monetary policy and inequality
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2017, 88, (C), 70-89 View citations (416)

2016

29. Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero Lower Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation
    Annual Review of Economics, 2016, 8, (1), 497-520 View citations (16)

2015

30. Inflation Expectations in Ukraine: A Long Path to Anchoring?
    Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, 2015, (233), 6-23 View citations (15)
31. Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2015, 46, (2 (Fall)), 151-225 View citations (229)
    See also Working Paper Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand, NBER Working Papers (2015) View citations (230) (2015)
32. Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts
    American Economic Review, 2015, 105, (8), 2644-78 View citations (731)
    See also Working Paper Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts, IMF Working Papers (2012) View citations (36) (2012)
33. Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2015, 7, (1), 197-232 View citations (576)
    See also Chapter Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation, NBER Chapters, 2013 (2013) View citations (65) (2013)
    Working Paper Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation, NBER Working Papers (2013) View citations (55) (2013)
34. The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications
    American Economic Review, 2015, 105, (3), 993-1029 View citations (124)
    See also Working Paper The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications, Staff Working Papers (2013) View citations (32) (2013)

2014

35. The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures
    Journal of Futures Markets, 2014, 34, (7), 607-636 View citations (80)
    See also Working Paper The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures, Working Papers (2010) View citations (24) (2010)

2013

36. Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2013, 44, (2 (Fall)), 193-260 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper Amerisclerosis? The Puzzle of Rising U.S. Unemployment Persistence, NBER Working Papers (2013) View citations (14) (2013)

2012

37. Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2012, 4, (2), 1-32 View citations (255)
    See also Working Paper Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?, NBER Working Papers (2011) View citations (10) (2011)
38. One for Some or One for All? Taylor Rules and Interregional Heterogeneity
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2012, 44, (2‐3), 401-431 View citations (5)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2012, 44, 401-431 (2012) View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper One for Some or One for All? Taylor Rules and Interregional Heterogeneity, Working Papers (2011) (2011)
39. The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?
    The Review of Economic Studies, 2012, 79, (4), 1371-1406 View citations (342)
    See also Working Paper The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?, 2012 Meeting Papers (2012) View citations (328) (2012)
    Working Paper The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models, NBER Working Papers (2010) View citations (23) (2010)
40. What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?
    Journal of Political Economy, 2012, 120, (1), 116 - 159 View citations (780)
    See also Working Paper What can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities?, 2010 Meeting Papers (2010) View citations (13) (2010)
41. Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2012, 4, (4), 126-62 View citations (188)
    See also Working Paper Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?, NBER Working Papers (2011) View citations (13) (2011)

2011

42. Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation
    American Economic Review, 2011, 101, (1), 341-70 View citations (320)
    See also Working Paper Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation:An Alternative Interpretation, Working Papers (2010) View citations (41) (2010)
43. Strategic Interaction among Heterogeneous Price-Setters in an Estimated DSGE Model
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2011, 93, (3), 920-940 View citations (26)
    See also Working Paper Strategic Interaction among Heterogeneous Price-Setters in an Estimated DSGE Model, Working Papers (2010) View citations (2) (2010)

2010

44. Testing the Sticky Information Phillips Curve
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2010, 92, (1), 87-101 View citations (61)
    See also Working Paper Testing the Sticky Information Phillips Curve, Working Papers (2007) View citations (10) (2007)

2007

45. Equilibrium demand elasticities across quality segments
    International Journal of Industrial Organization, 2007, 25, (1), 13-30 View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper Equilibrium Demand Elasticities across Quality Segments, Working Papers (2006) View citations (3) (2006)

2006

46. Inflation Inertia in Sticky Information Models
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2006, 6, (1), 1-29 View citations (26)

Chapters

2019

1. Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2019, 2019 View citations (4)
   See also Journal Article Inflation expectations as a policy tool?, Elsevier (2020) View citations (214) (2020)
   Working Paper Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool?, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2018) View citations (89) (2018)

2013

2. Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation
   A chapter in Lessons from the Financial Crisis for Monetary Policy, 2013 View citations (65)
   See also Working Paper Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (55) (2013)
   Journal Article Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation, American Economic Association (2015) View citations (576) (2015)

Editor

1. The Review of Economics and Statistics
   MIT Press