The Macroeconomic Expectations of U.S. Managers

M.L. McCLURE Ethan, Vitaliia Yaremko, Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2025, vol. 57, issue 4, 683-716

Abstract: Using responses obtained through the Nielsen Homescan panel survey, we explore the differences between managers’ and nonmanagers’ expectations and perceptions of inflation and unemployment. By and large, managers and nonmanagers exhibit similar average inflation and unemployment expectations as well as similar levels of disagreement and sensitivity to information provided in a randomized control trial. Responses to hypothetical questions suggest that inflation expectations of managers frequently affect their economic decisions. Finally, the inflation expectations of managers deviate systematically from the predictions of “anchored” expectations.

Date: 2025
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https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13163

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Working Paper: The Macroeconomic Expectations of U.S. Managers (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:57:y:2025:i:4:p:683-716

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