Business leaders' inflation expectations during the 2021-25 inflation cycle

Les anticipations des chefs d’entreprise face au cycle d’inflation 2021-2025

Olivier Coibion, Erwan Gautier, Maxime Ponsart and Frédérique Savignac

Eco Notepad (in progress) from Banque de France

Abstract: Every quarter, the Banque de France collects inflation expectations from 1,700 business leaders. They correctly anticipated the magnitude of the 2022–23 inflationary wave. Their expectations reacted in a more temporary and moderate way. With their expectations returning to 2% since 2024 and a strong consensus surrounding this scenario, companies remain confident that prices will remain stable over the long term.

Chaque trimestre, la Banque de France collecte les anticipations d’inflation auprès de 1 700 chefs d’entreprise. Ceux-ci ont correctement perçu l’ampleur de la vague inflationniste de 2022-2023. La réaction de leurs anticipations a été plus transitoire et modérée. Le retour à 2 % de leurs anticipations depuis 2024 et le fort consensus autour de ce scénario confirment la confiance des entreprises dans une stabilité durable des prix.

Date: 2025-06-19
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https://www.banque-france.fr/en/publications-and-s ... 1-25-inflation-cycle
https://www.banque-france.fr/fr/publications-et-st ... dinflation-2021-2025

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