Can Gun Violence be Deterred at Low Cost? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in New York City

Oludamilare Aboaba, Aaron Chalfin, Michael LaForest Tucker, Lucie Parker and Patrick Sharkey

No 32455, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Can gun violence be deterred at low cost? We report the results of a randomized experiment of a messaging intervention which was designed to reduce gun violence among individuals under parole supervision with a prior violent felony conviction or firearm arrest. The intervention consisted of a group meeting in which high-risk paroled individuals were notified of the sanction they would face upon reoffending while being offered community resources to support re- integration into the community. The program did not lead to a reduction in gun violence or create community spillover effects but did reduce parole violations by 15%. Potential mechanisms and implications for similar programs are discussed.

JEL-codes: K49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-05
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