Bounding the Effects of Social Experiments: Accounting for Attrition in Administrative Data

Jeffrey Grogger

No 18838, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Social experiments frequently exploit data from administrative records. However, most administrative data systems are state-specific, designed to track earnings or benefit payments among residents within a single state. Once an experimental participant moves out of state, his earnings and benefits in his state of origin consist entirely of zeros, giving rise to a form of attrition. In the presence of such attrition, the average treatment effect of the experiment is no longer point-identified, despite random assignment. I propose a method to estimate such attrition and, for binary outcomes such as employment, to construct bounds on the average treatment effect. Results from a welfare-reform experiment considered to have sizeable effects appear quite ambiguous after accounting for attrition. The results have important implications for planning social experiments.

JEL-codes: C33 C9 I38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-02
Note: LS
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published as J. Grogger, 2012. "Bounding the Effects of Social Experiments: Accounting for Attrition in Administrative Data," Evaluation Review, vol 36(6), pages 449-474.

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